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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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deej92 said:
How is this even a story? People die of all variants of Covid-19. It's just more scaremongering.
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To you it’s scaremongering, as usual, you are all out for opening ASAP.
To others it is simply reporting relevant facts..
This is a different variant to usual ones causing death.
It would not be in the UK had the govt. acted in a timely manner.
 
Sonority said:
To you it’s scaremongering, as usual, you are all out for opening ASAP.
To others it is simply reporting relevant facts..
This is a different variant to usual ones causing death.
It would not be in the UK had the govt. acted in a timely manner.
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Others may see it as simply reporting relevant facts, but I think a lot of it is about creating fear and panic to get more people reading. Sky News are one of the worst offenders in this regard. We’re being told by the national media that cases of this new variant are ‘surging’, yet we had a lower number of overall cases this Friday than the last one. Cases have been stable at the 2/2,500 mark for weeks now. It all seems fairly under control to me with the exception of a few localised outbreaks.

On your point about the government being slow too act, I do agree, but realistically were we going to keep this variant out forever especially with the close ties Britain has with India? Realistically are we going to be able to keep any variant out in the long-term unless we indefinitely shut the borders which again isn’t realistic? There’s only so much government can do.
 
gavreid said:
Indy SAGE briefing - 'We are at a tipping point'

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Just flicked through it but there seems to have been an outbreak of Corona centrism: let's be cautious but don't panic, let's act locally, support for isolation etc. Didn't get to the "We are at a tipping point" bit but doesn't seem characteristic of the discussion.
 
Seanm said:
Twitter of course! Not someone I follow, unfortunately, so I can't find the thread, but they had credentials: they'd gone through government documentation pulling out numbers and feeding them into models and the conclusion was, they've got bloody loads!
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That reminds me of Euler’s proof of the existence of God

Diderot was informed that a mathematician has established a proof of the existence of God. He was summoned to court without being told the name of his opponent. Before the assembled court, Euler accosted him with the following pronouncement, which was uttered with due gravity: '(a+b)/n=x, donc Dieu existe, répondez!'
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deej92 said:
Realistically are we going to be able to keep any variant out in the long-term unless we indefinitely shut the borders which again isn’t realistic? There’s only so much government can do.
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I agree with this, the question is: is the government doing all it can? For example, where is the legislation and enforcement of adequate internal ventilation in the workplace and in hospitality? Where is the support for people in crowded accommodation to isolate away from the home?
 
mandryka said:
is the government doing all it can?
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Apart from the vaccination programme, the Govt. is most definitely doing all it can to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity. The monumentally tardy response to dealing with people entering the UK from World Wide destinations especially by air.. and the pathetic.. all but unenforceable rules on quarantine in many cases is staggering.

And yet we seem very good at transporting EU citizens to gaol on the flimsiest of excuses...
 
I thought there was just one interesting new assertion in today's press conference. This:

Our surveillance and data gathering is now so advanced that if there was a danger of the NHS coming under unsustainable pressure we would see the signs in the data very early on and we could react in good time, and that gives us the confidence to continue moving forwards for now.
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(I suppose in practice what it means is that he's monitoring real carefully admissions of 40+ year olds.)
 
deej92 said:
Others may see it as simply reporting relevant facts, but I think a lot of it is about creating fear and panic to get more people reading. Sky News are one of the worst offenders in this regard. We’re being told by the national media that cases of this new variant are ‘surging’, yet we had a lower number of overall cases this Friday than the last one. Cases have been stable at the 2/2,500 mark for weeks now. It all seems fairly under control to me with the exception of a few localised outbreaks.

On your point about the government being slow too act, I do agree, but realistically were we going to keep this variant out forever especially with the close ties Britain has with India? Realistically are we going to be able to keep any variant out in the long-term unless we indefinitely shut the borders which again isn’t realistic? There’s only so much government can do.
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All of your posts have the same "I'm not affected and want to play football with pints after, so let's just go for it" type of attitude to them. Perhaps you need to have yourself, a relative or loved one absolutely wiped out by this virus before you cop on that there is absolutely zero acceptable level of collateral damage with it.

None.

Not that I'd wish it on anyone, of course.
 
Johnson said the move out of lockdown would be irreversible. But writing in the Telegraph, Mr Baker reasserted his plan, saying: "As the prime minister said, let us reclaim our lives, once and for all. This can be a moment of unity - for our country and the Conservative Party - as we look ahead with confidence, hope and optimism to a much brighter future."
BBC News, 15 Feb 2021
It now looks like it’s the Indian variant vs Steve Baker and the CRG. What will the Prime Minister do?


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deej92 said:
This just isn’t the case. I’m simply saying that I’m pleased the May 17 easing is going ahead and believe it’s the right decision and hope that June 21 will happen also.

Nothing wrong with that. Does that mean I don’t care about other people just because I want the roadmap to stay on course and get back to a normal life? So selfish of me. Your post is just virtue signalling.

Let’s turn it around: “I’m not affected by lockdown and I’m well off in a comfortable house and garden, so let’s just stick with it” type of attitude. Who really has the I’m alright Jack attitude here?
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Editing your post to add that pretty aggressive final paragraph and nonsense about virtue signalling pretty much sums up you and your mindset.
 
Why do we think they will not use all the time between now and the June date to decide/confirm restriction alterations?

I do accept dodgy decision making, but the 5 week cycles were chosen for a reason...
 
Andrew C! said:
Why do we think they will not use all the time between now and the June date to decide/confirm restriction alterations?

I do accept dodgy decision making, but the 5 week cycles were chosen for a reason...
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I guess we’ll find out soon enough if the reason was PR. The roadmap, and its supposed flexibility, hasn’t been tested yet, because everything’s gone according to plan or better. Might be put under some stress soon. Although I don’t actually see any experts panicking yet: the message seems to be, Let’s follow things closely and be ready with localised measures.
 
The logic seems to be

1. There's nothing now to say that they shouldn't open on May 17 as planned.

2. The context is full of unknowns though because of the Indian variant

But no need to worry because

3. If things do look as though they're going pear shaped they will know about it soon enough to pull back.

So there really is NO risk of a major new wave. It's all under control. Obviously (3) is the crucial thing. However it seems perfectly plausible because admissions by age are easily monitored and that's the stat which counts.

They've got a track record of monitoring and pulling back -- that's exactly what they did in December after a few days of Tier 3. Hence, I suppose, this (pessimistic) comment is natural if you're that way inclined:

TheDecameron said:
I’m getting Déjà vu all over again.
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mandryka said:
The logic seems to be

1. There's nothing now to suggest that they shouldn't open on May 17 as planned.

2. If things do look as though they're going pear shaped they will know about it soon enough to pull back.

So there really is NO risk of a major new wave. It's all under control.

They've got a track record of monitoring and pulling back -- that's exactly what they did in December after a few days of Tier 3. Hence, I suppose, this (pessimistic) comment is natural if you're that way inclined:
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In December they *gestured* towards pulling back, while actually ploughing on in a way that absolutely guaranteed another massacre.
 
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