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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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h.g. said:
The local moving average weekly infection rate rose again today but by less than 10% compared to yesterday. The strength of the hotspots does seem to be getting larger relative to the average as lockdown conditions ease with only vaccinations and no effective track and trace to handle the outbreaks. Chatted to my next door but one neighbour this morning (retired living alone) when she was out walking her dog. Didn't know her town had had the highest covid infection rate in the country and rising for the last 5 days or so. Had seen the mobile testing lab in the park but did not recognise the significance. It illustrates something about the way we live and are currently handling this epidemic but I am not sure quite what.
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Lack of clear comms, I guess? And not by accident: intentional, driven by the fear that if people were told exactly what was going on, and what the plan was, they'd get the wrong idea, panic, and interfere with the plan. That's how it's been from the start.

These look like sensible proposals to me, given the localised nature of the increases:

https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1392524445810630657?s=20

- Surge jabbing: in regions of high prevalence or where R>1, open up vaccination to all adults, offer incentives, try to reach those who haven't been vaccinated.

- widen symptom definition

- enhanced test and trace in these areas

- support for isolation

- Japanese-style messaging on "the 3 Cs": avoid closed spaces, crowded places, close contact settings

Apparently government are reluctant to do the surge jabbing for some reason. They've always been dead set against adequate support for isolation, for reasons that are clear enough.
 
Interesting link. Infection rates have tended to be below average around here over the last 15 months likely leading to a lower than average immunity among the unvaccinated and hence a higher than average infection rate in an outbreak. Seems a plausible explanation for what is happening.
 
gavreid said:
Report from India of people become infected after full vaccination (fortunately not too seriously in the highlighted case but enough to be hospitalised). They have only covered 3% of the population so such cases will be a small fraction by definition.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-57084572
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One can be too morbid on this stuff but again unfortunately I think your fact seeking is more than likely an accurate assessment of the twists and turns ahead. It would be churlish to believe this initial success with the vaccine means we are at end game. Fingers crossed the pharma companies keep ahead of the curve and governments make the right decisions to help prevent further surges.
 
Tweet from BBC Radio Lancashire: “People aged 18 and over in three wards in #Blackburn can now book an appointment for a Pfizer jab online.

“It's after the Indian variant was found in Shear Brow and Corporation Park, Billinge and Beardwood aswell as Bastwell and Daisyfield.”

Good move.
 
gavreid said:
2 657 cases today (about level with last week), 11 deaths, 76 and 79 admissions (to the 11th)

If you zoom into the updated map there's quite a number of blue areas (100-200 per 100k), with high rates where the Indian variant has been found.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/maps-show-just-how-quickly-20586308
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It's a concern. There is speculation they want to delay the 21st June date to remove all remaining restrictions. I hope Monday's release date stays in place though.
 
deej92 said:
Tweet from BBC Radio Lancashire: “People aged 18 and over in three wards in #Blackburn can now book an appointment for a Pfizer jab online.

“It's after the Indian variant was found in Shear Brow and Corporation Park, Billinge and Beardwood aswell as Bastwell and Daisyfield.”

Good move.
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This sounded very encouraging but it seems that it’s a local team taking matters into their own hands:

https://twitter.com/smyth_chris/status/1392835390399291393?s=21
 
Some much-needed balance here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57069295

People should stop panicking about every new variant - scientist

People need to "stop panicking" every time a new coronavirus variant is identified in the UK, a leading scientist has said, amid concern about the growing number of cases of the Indian variant.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who is a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said that while the Indian variant may be capable of becoming the dominant variant in the UK, the risk of a surge in deaths or hospital admissions remains low.

Prof Dingwall, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, told the PA news agency: "This variant seems to be better managed by the vaccines than the South African variant so that vaccinated people have only a very low risk of infection that is likely to be mild."
 
Immediately followed in your rolling news link by a govt minister refusing to guarantee that the country will fully reopen on June 21.
 
Seanm said:
This sounded very encouraging but it seems that it’s a local team taking matters into their own hands:

https://twitter.com/smyth_chris/status/1392835390399291393?s=21
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Mystery. Presumably if you surge vaccinate you need more vaccines. It's not a matter of vaccinating teenagers at the expense of older people in the same neighbourhood. How will Blackburn get extra vaccines if it's not supported by Westminster? If they're not getting additional vaccines then NHS is right to be concerned, to say the least.

jimbob75 said:
Every proposed date of relaxation was subject to a review at that time. Giving a guarantee was never possible, so not sure if this is newsworthy or not.
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That seems right.
 
mandryka said:
Mystery. Presumably if you surge vaccinate you need more vaccines. It's not a matter of vaccinating teenagers at the expense of older people in the same neighbourhood. How will Blackburn get extra vaccines if it's not supported by Westminster? If they're not getting additional vaccines then NHS is right to be concerned, to say the least.
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I know they’re following an age-based approach, but it does make sense to prioritise vaccinations in certain areas where infections are higher and amongst age groups which are largely driving the surges.
 
mandryka said:
Mystery. Presumably if you surge vaccinate you need more vaccines. It's not a matter of vaccinating teenagers at the expense of older people in the same neighbourhood. How will Blackburn get extra vaccines if it's not supported by Westminster? If they're not getting additional vaccines then NHS is right to be concerned, to say the least.



.
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Blackburn is NOT offering vaccines to teenagers, yet


https://theshuttle.org.uk/additional-vaccine-clinics-announced/


deej92 said:
I know they’re following an age-based approach, but it does make sense to prioritise vaccinations in certain areas where infections are higher and amongst age groups which are largely driving the surges.
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That would be true if the vaccine stopped them being contagious, BAM, just like that, straight away. But it doesn’t work like that and if you think it’s a good idea to vaccinate the kids at the expense of the middle aged, you’ll need to do a bit of mathematical modelling I’m afraid.
 
mandryka said:
Mystery. Presumably if you surge vaccinate you need more vaccines. It's not a matter of vaccinating teenagers at the expense of older people in the same neighbourhood. How will Blackburn get extra vaccines if it's not supported by Westminster? If they're not getting additional vaccines then NHS is right to be concerned, to say the least.



That seems right.
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Good question, and I’ve no idea. I do know they’ve stockpiled an absolute tonne of vaccines so if it’s nationally co-ordinated that shouldn’t be a problem.
 
deej92 said:
Tweet from BBC Radio Lancashire: “People aged 18 and over in three wards in #Blackburn can now book an appointment for a Pfizer jab online.

“It's after the Indian variant was found in Shear Brow and Corporation Park, Billinge and Beardwood aswell as Bastwell and Daisyfield.”

Good move.
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Now being denied and not going to happen after all.
 
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