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Coronavirus - the new strain XIII

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mandryka said:
I don’t understand the dynamics of these things at all. It can’t be running out of fuel, can it? And the same measures are in place everywhere, so why is one place rising and another place not?
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I've been thinking about that too, of course I've not been doing any modelling. If there's a certain rate of infection that's driven mainly by education and essential workers and let's say London was below that and Liverpool etc was well above, while lockdown has a certain impact it's not enough to stop the virus spreading completely so one comes down while the other continues to rise (albeit more slowly). Of course when the measures are relaxed it takes off again from those new levels, as we've had a glimpse of in Wales today.

Changing the subject, this is a straighforward analysis of the vaccine situation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-but-its-not-all-over-yet-oxford-astrazeneca
 
George J said:
I am not worried about discussing the politics of the Government, as its makes me spit feathers, and I simply find it so stress inducing.

BUT I could not be more delighted with the news that the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine is a proving, in trials, to be such a splendid success. Of course one needs to read the the whole of the story to realise that the comparatively disappointing figure of 70% protection is a base line and that there is hope that with refined dosing, then 90% may be achieved.

With an extremely relatively inexpensive vaccine compared to BioNTech and Moderna, this will have significance for the whole world. As a simpler vaccine to transport at fridge rather than ultra-deep-freeze temperatures, the logistic are going to be much simpler and more reliable.

At last we are looking at a practical solution to vaccination for everyone who needs and wants it.

One less cloud in the sky.

Best wishes from George
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Good news indeed. The cost and relatively straightforward conditions for storage will be crucial factors in selection but I wonder about the logistics of administering huge numbers of doses twice. I wish it well of course.
 
mandryka said:
Pretty rococo narrative, that one, to try and justify a Guardian story which prima facie is just bad reporting. The Guardian is, after all, hardly a neutral source, albeit an easily available source. Surely it’s best, more likely to be true, to choose the interpretation which is simplest? I.e. - mine.
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I didn't see yours. Can you give me a post number?

Stephen
 
stephen bennett said:
I didn't see yours. Can you give me a post number?

Stephen
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I can do better than that, I can state it. That he thinks that large scale rapid testing of asymptomatic people is a useful tool for reducing the growth of new covid infections in areas of high prevalence. Simples.
 
gavreid said:
The new 'tougher' 3-tier system has also been announced
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Shops are open, pubs are open, you can go to sports events and live concerts - yet the tiers are somehow ‘tougher.’ The only way in which that seems to be the case is that instead of the tiers being called ‘low, medium and high’ they are now ‘medium, high and very high’. “Well, it’s one tougher, isn’t it?” as Nigel would have said.
 
Marchbanks said:
Shops are open, pubs are open, you can go to sports events and live concerts - yet the tiers are somehow ‘tougher.’ The only way in which that seems to be the case is that instead of the tiers being called ‘low, medium and high’ they are now ‘medium, high and very high’. “Well, it’s one tougher, isn’t it?” as Nigel would have said.
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Yes that's why I used quotes. They're saying that more areas will be in tier 3 but it's being confirmed on Thursday...
 
Marchbanks said:
Shops are open, pubs are open, you can go to sports events and live concerts - yet the tiers are somehow ‘tougher.’ The only way in which that seems to be the case is that instead of the tiers being called ‘low, medium and high’ they are now ‘medium, high and very high’. “Well, it’s one tougher, isn’t it?” as Nigel would have said.
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Most places will be in tier 3 where none of that will be allowed apart from shops.
 
Bob McC said:
Most places will be in tier 3 where none of that will be allowed apart from shops.
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Although according to the BBC...

‘Boris Johnson told the Commons that the three-tiered regional measures will return from 2 December, but he added that each tier will be toughened.’

...and I find it hard to square the aim of ‘toughening’ tiers one and two with being allowed to go to football matches. After a trip to the pub, of course.
 
Bob McC said:
Most places will be in tier 3 where none of that will be allowed apart from shops.
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Not strictly true as fans of non-elite football clubs will be able to attend games in tier 3 areas as was the case before this new announcement on elite football spectators.

Gyms, leisure centres, shops and outdoor grassroots sports all allowed again even in tier 3

Then in the higher tiers, up to 4,000 fans can watch elite games. The reintroduction of spectators is a big moment.

Things could be a lot worse. Early thoughts are he’s been quite soft other than on the hospitality industry who have been hit hard again.

Greater Manchester, presumably will be tier 3, so I’ll be able to play my 5–a-side and watch my local non league team who get a few hundred crowds. So I’m happier enough!:)
 
Liked the sense the chap from Oxford brought this evening. He mentioned the 70% initial rate again, and that being a comparable rate to the effectiveness of the flu jab. Interesting comparison, regardless of the increase in one arm of the study up to 90%.
 
The big test I think is what happens around the turkey in people’s houses. How many grannies will welcome a hug? Homes seem to me the big test because they’re closed spaces, it’ll be cold so the windows will be tightly closed, people will be together for a few hours, and many will end up a bit pissed, all in a warm and stuffy room.

Oh, another big test is the January sales. I for one will give Harrods a miss this year.

I’m not sure whether in Tier 3, families will be « allowed » to meet up. My feeling is that whatever the rules say, it’ll be impossible to stop them anyway.

I think we should brace ourself for Lockdown 3 mid January, and then the Farage revolution possibly. Or a military coup d’état. Unless were saved by a vaccine and Moonshot.
 
tiggers said:
And that's what matters :rolleyes:
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No everyone’s happiness matters and the loosening of these restrictions will or should help in that sense.

Let’s be clear though, there are still severe restrictions on households mixing in the higher tiers and pubs and restaurants will be hit very hard, reduced to a takeaway service in Tier 3 areas.
 
Andrew C! said:
The devil is in the detail. Don't spin this the wrong way, please - low 1st dose achieves 70%, with a high 2nd dose pushing the figure up to 90%+.

See the BBC article I shared earlier.
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Not sure this is correct. I may have misread it, but my understanding is that one test was 2 identical doses, a few weeks apart, which achieved 70% after both doses; the other test (a much smaller sample) was a half dose first time, with a full strength second dose, again a few weeks later. This achieved 90%. It’s not the case that the first dose achieves 70%, topped up to 90% after the second dose, which is I think what you said?
 
Deej1992 said:
No everyone’s happiness matters and the loosening of these restrictions will or should help in that sense.

Let’s be clear though, there are still severe restrictions on households mixing in the higher tiers and pubs and restaurants will be hit very hard, reduced to a takeaway service in Tier 3 areas.
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But they won't help combat the virus, we're in the middle of a 4 week so called lockdown and the cases are just possibly flattening, if we move to anything less stringent in a week's time the cases will just go back up along with deaths. You can read the evidence for this from umpteen medical scientists, even those in the government's pay will know this and will doubtless say so at some point just as they did re. the previous 3 tiers nonsense.
 
It seems like two big areas for infections are schools, and hospitality. Closing hospitality without closing schools is unlikely to be particularly effective, but closing schools is seen as unacceptable.

To those whose livelihoods depend on the hospitality industry, shutting that down (while not closing schools) is probably just as unacceptable. So why not turn and turn about? Close pubs and restaurants one week, schools the next. Kids get continuity of education and can be set homework, hospitality industry and its supply chain gets to tick over.

It’s almost certainly a daft idea, but surely no more daft than what we have now.
 
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