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Coronavirus - the new strain XIII

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stevec67 said:
A friend in the nhs who is involved in vaccine rollout tells me that the epidemiologists have been saying for months that we can have pubs open or schools, but not both. Boris clearly wants the pubs open for the VAT and beer duty, but home schooling simply does not work for the vast majority of kids. Telly on, kick back, ignore the lesson emails.
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That’s OK then because pubs will either be forced to close or become restaurants with table service only. Phew.
 
mandryka said:
I can do better than that, I can state it. That he thinks that large scale rapid testing of asymptomatic people is a useful tool for reducing the growth of new covid infections in areas of high prevalence. Simples.
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Funny how it's only being introduced now there is a Tory revolt.

FWIW I said we needed this in March. Other countries introduced it. Johnson stopped testing.

Stephen
 
stephen bennett said:
Funny how it's only being introduced now there is a Tory revolt.

FWIW I said we needed this in March. Other countries introduced it. Johnson stopped testing.

Stephen
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But rapid testing wasn’t available in March, it’s only just been invented. I don’t believe any other country is doing more than good old Blighty when it comes to rapid testing.
 
mandryka said:
But rapid testing wasn’t available in March, it’s only just been invented. I don’t believe any other country is doing more than good old Blighty when it comes to rapid testing.
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Mass testing isn't predicated on rapid testing technology, as South Korea and Germany demonstrated. Jonson stopped all testing outside the NHS. I volunteered for a local lab to help run PCR tests. They had approached Hancock, but the Government were more interested in arranging contracts with SERCO and Deloitte.

And, there seems to be real problems with the type of mass testing we are undertaking. Thousands of students will be sent home soon after having a lateral flow test which has measured negative, but a significant number will actually be Covid positive.

Johnson has also sidelined (as usual) the National Screening Committee (who have been working on screening for decades). These are the first people you would speak to before you 'spaff' the dosh on mass testing.

Plenty of information is online about this.

Stephen
 
tiggers said:
So let me get this straight.... what you are advocating is that because Johnson is an elected official I should take more notice of his stance on medical and health matters than those who are qualified in the field and have dedicated their lives to it. That's moronic frankly!

As for being unaccountable I don't think there is anyone less accountable than Johnson right now. Look at the litany of mistakes and ministerial code (not to mention law) breaking events that are occurring under his watch with no more than a murmur in the MSM and then on we go. The man and his government are crooks who have seen the pandemic as little more than a way to line their pockets, and those of their friends, with our tax money. Their handing of the pandemic has been woeful and yet there will never be a single prosecution even if there is an enquiry, so may be you should STFU about accountability.

At the end of the day you will nail your flag to the mast of anyone who supports what you want which is an end to lockdowns. You can dress it up all you like about it being for the good of everyone, but the real evidence does not support your stance and IMO you are driven by little more than personal desire and what you want... hence my comments about you being selfish!
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It looks like Deej has had enough of unelected experts.
 
stephen bennett said:
And, there seems to be real problems with the type of mass testing we are undertaking. Thousands of students will be sent home soon after having a lateral flow test which has measured negative, but a significant number will actually be Covid positive.
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Yes, that is a problem. Presumably the rate of false negatives will be explained to them, they'll no to stay alert.
 
Good Morning All,

My apologies if what I'm about to say has come up already but frankly I struggle to keep up with some threads.

The mass testing in Liverpool is voluntary and it has been reported on the news that the take up in some areas has been low? How reliable an indicator are the current results across the whole of Liverpool if this is the case?

Surely this must be factor when the authorities advise on tier levels later this week? Presumably hospital admissions will be a truer indicator?

My inclination would be to keep such an area in a high level of lockdown simply on the uncertainty. This would be very dispiriting for those from the area who have stepped forward.

There is simply too much 'volunteering' and 'relying on goodwill' involved in all these anti-COVID measures.

Regards

Richard
 
mandryka said:
Yes, that is a problem. Presumably the rate of false negatives will be explained to them, they'll no to stay alert.
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How that advice might affect behaviour sounds like the kind of thing that the National Screening Committee might have been able to advise on. Not necessary though: given that the test is being promoted specifically as a means of determining that you’re safe to do the thing that you want to do, I can tell you that any warnings will be treated by many, many people (given the scale of the test) as meaningless small print.

Putting aside the false negatives, you seem to have overcome your concerns about the potentially very high number of false positives?
 
mandryka said:
Yes, that is a problem. Presumably the rate of false negatives will be explained to them, they'll no to stay alert.
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I read that in a Scottish accent.

A Negative flow test will mean 'I'm fine. I'm off home.' I know students.

Seeker_UK said:
I would guess that it is because the lockdown was going to stop on 02 December regardless.
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And there's no way Johnson could get another one through Parliament without Labour's help. The new 'Covid 19 expeditionary force' of Tory MPs would kibosh that.

Stephen
 
Richard Lines said:
Good Morning All,

My apologies if what I'm about to say has come up already but frankly I struggle to keep up with some threads.

The mass testing in Liverpool is voluntary and it has been reported on the news that the take up in some areas has been low? How reliable an indicator are the current results across the whole of Liverpool if this is the case?

Surely this must be factor when the authorities advise on tier levels later this week? Presumably hospital admissions will be a truer indicator?

My inclination would be to keep such an area in a high level of lockdown simply on the uncertainty. This would be very dispiriting for those from the area who have stepped forward.

There is simply too much 'volunteering' and 'relying on goodwill' involved in all these anti-COVID measures.

Regards

Richard
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You’re absolutely right, in that goodwill doesn’t pay the rent or feed the kids. If you get the test and are asked to self-isolate for 14 days, you can apply for £500 from the government. It seems that 80% of Liverpudlians who did this were turned down. Combine this with the apparent likelihood that if you test positive it will be false, why on earth would you volunteer for a test?

The whole thing looks like it will be a cosmically expensive PR exercise/corruption opportunity. The money could go on supporting symptomatic people while they isolate.

Failing that maybe landlords and banks could be asked to show a little goodwill?

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1331151805464633345?s=21
 
Billions committed to an utterly failed private sector scheme that has not delivered then we find that a few hundred trained Labradors could have done a more reliable job in a fraction of the time. How very world beating.
 
Seanm said:
Putting aside the false negatives, you seem to have overcome your concerns about the potentially very high number of false positives?
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No, I was only thinking about false negatives, though I did make a confused post this morning, presumably what ffqd1l saw, and then changed it (in mitigation I had to go to the dentist. Not a pleasant experience.)

I still don't understand the false positive problem, though at some point I plan on spending some time reminding myself about Bayes's theorem (I did that when I was at school, my A level maths teacher was a statistician and he gave us a really good grounding in probability. I never did it at university (I did pure maths) and it's so unbelievably forgettable!) As far as I can see, just thinking informally, if the disease is very prevalent, and you pick someone at random, give him the test, and he comes out positive, then the probability of that result being false is less than if the disease is less prevalent. But I know this much: these things are paradoxical and there's no substitute for doing the maths properly.
 
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