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Coronavirus - the new strain XIII

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mandryka said:
I also note that the Tories seem to be softening us up for big tax rises soon
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This is inevitable. How else is it all to be paid for? Cutting further the public sector? To what? I’d estimate 2p in the pound base rate increase. At least...

gavreid said:
You're just being obtuse now - see #1932.
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Gav posts corrections all the time, in relation to the stats he produces ‘at that time’. IE He posts the numbers as released at the time, and then corrects them if further info becomes available. Perfectly reasonable imv.
 
Deej1992 said:
Not personal on my part.

I just don’t like being called selfish.
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I think wanting lockdown gone so you can do whatever it is you want to do while deaths and cases inevitably increase is selfish. Sorry if that upsets you, but without a decent alternative plan (and this government do not have one that passes muster with medical science) that is what will happen!
 
tiggers said:
I think wanting lockdown gone so you can do whatever it is you want to do while deaths and cases inevitably increase is selfish. Sorry if that upsets you, but without a decent alternative plan (and this government do not have one that passes muster with medical science) that is what will happen!
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It doesn’t make me selfish to want an alternative approach to lockdown. You can’t know my motives for wanting this.

I worry about people’s mental health, businesses going under and people losing their jobs to name a few things. If we come to the point where more people are dying as a consequence of lockdown, then that’s when we reach a point where they’re costing more lives than they’re saving. In other words they’re more damaging than the virus itself.

I’ve always been in favour of an approach of protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest of us to go about our lives, taking precautions such as wearing masks, hand washing and social distancing where possible, all backed up by an effective test, track and trace regime. In other words treat people like adults and use their common sense. Not so different to Sweden. I’m not calling for no restrictions but I am for a bit of balance between protecting public health and the economy and other health outcomes,

This isn’t just about me going to a pub. I could call you selfish for openly endorsing a policy that will mean some people struggling with mental health issues end up taking their lives.
 
Deej1992 said:
If we come to the point where more people are dying as a consequence of lockdown, then that’s when we reach a point where they’re costing more lives than they’re saving. In other words they’re more damaging than the virus itself.
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But we haven't.

Deej1992 said:
I’ve always been in favour of an approach of protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest of us to go about our lives, taking precautions such as wearing masks, hand washing and social distancing where possible, all backed up by an effective test, track and trace regime. In other words treat people like adults and use their common sense. Not so different to Sweden. I’m not calling for no restrictions but I am for a bit of balance between protecting public health and the economy and other health outcomes
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But we don't have an effective test, track and trace regime. Oh and Sweden isn't doing so well.

Deej1992 said:
I could call you selfish for openly endorsing a policy that will mean some people struggling with mental health issues end up taking their lives.
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Crack on! I really don't care what you call me.
 
gavreid said:
It's the weekends with the very low figures that tend to get reported early the following week, you can see the average levelling out quite clearly - deaths had been rising exponentially...
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The word exponential just means rising. It gives no idea of how fast they are rising. I thought it meant doubling with every measurement but I've looked it up and that's wrong. The most common expression used seems to be 'doubling every x days'.

I've come to the conclusion that it's futile to do your own analysis based on the figures the Government are giving us. Like all measurements of a biological system, it gets complicated really quickly. I'd say leave it to the people whose job it is, they've got access to the base figures and they have the training and the stats tools to squeeze some meaning out of it.

I'd certainly ignore what the papers say, their standard of scientific reporting is appalling. I'd only believe the BBC and the New Scientist.

The bottom line is that things seem to be getting worse and worse so we need to tighten up.
 
2ManyBoxes said:
The word exponential just means rising. It gives no idea of how fast they are rising. I thought it meant doubling with every measurement but I've looked it up and that's wrong. The most common expression used seems to be 'doubling every x days'.

I've come to the conclusion that it's futile to do your own analysis based on the figures the Government are giving us. Like all measurements of a biological system, it gets complicated really quickly. I'd say leave it to the people whose job it is, they've got access to the base figures and they have the training and the stats tools to squeeze some meaning out of it.

I'd certainly ignore what the papers say, their standard of scientific reporting is appalling. I'd only believe the BBC and the New Scientist.

The bottom line is that things seem to be getting worse and worse so we need to tighten up.
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This is what an exponential increase in the death rate looks like - I posted earlier this month. It fits very well to an exponential with a doubling time of 14 days - that means the number of deaths doubles in that time period e.g. 200, 400, 800, 1600 every fortnight in this case. Don't try to tell me what exponential means, it's patronising. it's easy to see the anomolous weekend reporting. I trust myself over your 'experts' thank you very much...

 
gavreid said:
This is what an exponential increase in the death rate looks like - I posted earlier this month. It fits very well to an exponential with a doubling time of 14 days - that means the number of deaths doubles in that time period e.g. 200, 400, 800, 1600 every fortnight in this case. Don't try to tell me what exponential means, it's patronising. it's easy to see the anomolous weekend reporting. I trust myself over your 'experts' thank you very much...

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I'll be patronising so long as you're being childishly stupid and deliberately misinterpreting what I've said. I wouldn't trust your opinion on anything at all.

Thankfully you're only one fool and I can magically make you disappear. BYE.
 
Exponential growth just means rising with increasing rate but this doesn’t equate to rapidity alone. Exponential growth can be very slow, just look at the interest rates on my ISA or the growth in my meagre pension pot.

In the context of Covid it does rise quickly as it is a very infectious disease.

As it stands we should run with tier 3 restrictions nationally for the duration of the year. Suitable support should be given to effected businesses.
 
Andrew C! said:
This is inevitable. How else is it all to be paid for? Cutting further the public sector? To what? I’d estimate 2p in the pound base rate increase. At least...



Gav posts corrections all the time, in relation to the stats he produces ‘at that time’. IE He posts the numbers as released at the time, and then corrects them if further info becomes available. Perfectly reasonable imv.
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They're about to announce a public sector pay freeze. So much for appreciating the efforts of essential workers during the pandemic.
 
droodzilla said:
They're about to announce a public sector pay freeze. So much for appreciating the efforts of essential workers during the pandemic.
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Yes. They have already warmed up the usual "public sector workers earns more on average than private sector workers" and swept under the carpet the public sector pay restraint from 2009-2019 ready for Wednesday.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Yes. They have already warmed up the usual "public sector workers earns more on average than private sector workers" and swept under the carpet the public sector pay restraint from 2009-2019 ready for Wednesday.
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Must have left the PPE supply companies out of that statistic.
 
Andrew C! said:
Don’t forget in reality this will turn into a pay cut, again. Tax increases, plus cost of living increases.
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Yes. And public sector wages are already about 4% down in real terms, compared with 2010:

https://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2017/07/not-just-public-sector-needs-pay-rise/

Public-Private-Sector-Pay-3.png
 
davidsrsb said:
That graph does not catch when CV-19 killed overtime and caused actual pay cuts in the private sector. Public sector has held its ground and is now way ahead.
Many of the highest paying salaried jobs in the private sector like airline pilots are slashed.
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It was never meant to. It shows the long-term negative impact on real wages (public and private sector) of the 2008 financial crash, followed by austerity. The impact of CV-19 is obviously a distinct issue.
 
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