Coronavirus - the new strain XII
- Thread starter russel
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gavreid
Pretty Words...
Certainly. The dominant strain of the virus in much of Europe spread from Spain earlier in the summer apparently. It was clearly the movement of people (because they had to have their summer holidays you know) - I think complacent is the correct word here.
“I think there were actually three real failures here. So, first, the cases were rising in Spain earlier than in most of Europe, but we still allowed people to travel there.
“On top of that, we didn’t really do much screening of passengers at airports, and it’s very likely that possibly people didn’t follow the quarantine as much as they were supposed to.
“And, finally, if the variant did get back to another European country, those countries weren’t able to cut that off quickly with just a few people, and instead it had a good environment where it could spread more widely, so I think these are all things we could address.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-from-spain-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-study
sean99
pfm Member
No need to wait until the next millennium. GPS week rollover is every 20 years.
And on Tue Jan 19 03:14:07 2038 we'll get to find out who used signed 32 bit integers to store the Unix epoch time.
This stuff is like vaccine denial (no one gets the diseases because of vaccination, therefore we no longer need to vaccinate) or union denial (why do I need a union - my pay is OK and I get sick pay and holidays).
stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
"Pay the bill, make everyone ill!"
Forcing people back to the office probably didn't help either.
Stephen
mandryka
pfm Member
The COVID symptom study, which according to its own director is the most accurate basis for modelling available, has it at less than half that on 26 Oct. Was the man from Imperial saying that it had doubled in three days, or are the models just incompatible? If the former then we’re really in the shit or he’s wrong!
tqineil
Ubi fides ibi lux et robur
Prof Paul Elliot Chair of REACH study - here at 36:10 into the programme https://www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news/on-demand/70927-303
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I think he was saying that it could be as bad in the worst case...
gavreid
Pretty Words...
The spread is faster than the worst case scenario already...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775
Del monaco
Del Monaco
Thankfully I seem to be over my Covid experience and can go out of the house tomorrow. My wife tested negative today. School to return to normal function over the next few days.Two of my pupils tested positive so class won’t start until Wednesday so I’ll be on line teaching until then.Glad to get through it relatively unscathed though and hoping I have developed some form of immunity that’ll last until vaccinations.Hoping teachers will figure with early vaccinations as it is an anxious time in the smaller schools like ours where distancing etc is less easy to manage.
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tqineil
Ubi fides ibi lux et robur
Great news @Del monaco
Ponty
pfm Member
Excellent news Del, but have you decided on the HiFi upgrade?!
mandryka
pfm Member
In the seven days to 25 October, Liverpool had an infection rate of 475.5 cases per 100,000 residents, down from 585.1 for the previous week.
R-value for UK estimated at 1.1 to 1.3, down from 1.2 to 1.4
paulfromcamden
Baffled
Today's ONS report lists the infection rate for London as still lower then the national average which surprises me.
paulfromcamden
Baffled
Without wishing to be too gloomy, the latest Imperial College paper estimates London R to be a frankly alarming 2.86 with a doubling time of three(!) days.
Good news for the North East though.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lth-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf
Nick_G
pfm Member
Without wishing to be too gloomy, the latest Imperial College paper estimates London R to be a frankly alarming 2.86.
Good news for the North East though.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lth-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf
I heard that on the news earlier too, rounded up to 2.9. If that is accurate we are back in the same place we were in mid-March.
It's getting a bit close to home now. At work a we have a number of cases, we are after all Tier 3. I'm in Leeds, which joins Tier 3 on Monday. Look forward to the street parties this weekend, no I won't be attending. I've had a nasty cold all week, but just a cold. I suspect I have passed it on to one office mate, despite social distancing. Oops. She has rung in sick yesterday and today, doubtless it will be all my fault. She happens to be pregnant too. At least that's nothing to do with me.
Good news for the NE if it's true. I doubt that it is an accurate figure. I don't see any difference in behaviour or housing/work/social situation, or low infection rates, to account for an R value so far below the national mean. R below 0.6 on a reliable and repeatable basis would see the figures drop to negligible levels in a month. I wish.Without wishing to be too gloomy, the latest Imperial College paper estimates London R to be a frankly alarming 2.86 with a doubling time of three(!) days.
Good news for the North East though.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lth-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf
Low R values are so far confined to rural areas with fewer contacts. Add low infection rates and the cases fall off a cliff just like they aren't at the moment.
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