Coronavirus - the new strain IX

[Seeker_UK]

Where does it say anything about track and trace in the BBC link?

It doesn't, but a bit of searching finds this:

In a letter seen by this newspaper, Ocklynge head teacher Jon Reynard said, “We have been informed by a member of staff that they have been contacted by Public Health England and advised to isolate themselves at home for 14 days.

“We understand this is a precaution following some limited contact with a confirmed case of coronavirus which has recently been reported in Brighton and Hove.

“It is important to stress that the member of staff has no symptoms and has been advised they are at very low risk. We are being advised that there is similarly very little risk to anyone in the school community.

“Public Health England is clear in its advice that schools do not need to close, and they are working closely with East Sussex County Council. We will continue to keep parents and carers and the school community informed with any updated advice that is passed to us.

So unless PHE were using a different system, the school was shut as a precaution and due to T&T.

https://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/...hool-announces-staff-member-isolation-1436822

 

[timH]

Chap on Newsnight just now reminded us that 1st September is 70 days away. Wife’s best friends brother is a consultant in NHS and he says November for 2nd wave. I think it will be before that though. My conditions for relaxing my lockdown are the same as Tony’s i.e. vaccine or treatment and we’re still a long way from that

 

[twotone]

Chap on Newsnight just now reminded us that 1st September is 70 days away. Wife’s best friends brother is a consultant in NHS and he says November for 2nd wave. I think it will be before that though. My conditions for relaxing my lockdown are the same as Tony’s i.e. vaccine or treatment and we’re still a long way from that

I watched an interview with a scientist way back in April (sorry can't remember who or where) who said that unless there is a vaccine then there will likely be six waves before this virus is under some sort of control.

Might have been this below from professor Anthony Costello

“After this wave – and we could see 40,000 deaths by the time it is over – we could only have 10-15 per cent of the population infected or covered. The idea of herd immunity would mean another five to six more waves to get to 60 per cent,” he said. “We have got to suppress this right down.”


He added: “We are playing for time. We need to damp it right down, we need a community protective shield to keep it that way and then we have got to pray that the vaccinologists come up with something. Professor Sarah Gilbert from Oxford says she is 80 per cent confident she will have a vaccine by September, so we have got to be positive here.”



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...aths-cases-vaccine-waves-latest-a9470256.html

 

[davidsrsb]

Grim reading. And it makes no mention of people like me who were never hospitalised but are still having breathing difficulties, months later. It seems there are a lot of us. It makes the government's failure to follow the precautionary principle even more unforgivable.

It spoils their calculations showing that herd immunity is cheaper than a proper early lockdown.
Long term health problems gets really expensive to the NHS and in reduced working productivity

 

[davidsrsb]

If you're referring to the recent spate of Tennis players getting it, then that is mainly Novak Djokovich's fault for ignoring all the advice and trying to run some sort of mini tournament in Croatia and Serbia with a few fellow Tennis folk, it's turned into a massive shit show because it looks like most of them have caught it.

Footballers and golfers too. They mix, but in a well tested group, so secret partying perhaps?

 

[mandryka]

What happens to the economy if we relax lockdown too early and are forced to impose another national lockdown?

The answer, as you know, is that we won’t be forced into another national lockdown because there’s another strategy: let the virus spread among the young and healthy, who have a smaller risk of serious illness; advise older people and more vulnerable people to isolate themselves; allow the economy to continue working.

I hope that this question will be debated over summer to prepare the ground for action in autumn. At least we seem to have a brief period of respite now, touch wood.

By the way, I think you’re wrong to say that it’s a question of relaxing lockdown too early. I think it’s more a question of people becoming lax about recommended social distancing - it’s social distancing which keeps this disease under control. I hope that there will be a sustained campaign over summer to encourage the young to keep observing social distancing recommendations, in order to protect the less young, especially now that the recommendations are more informed. That being said, I can fully understand the temptations . . .

 

[Jonathan]

excellent coronavirus instructional video

 

[gavreid]

Here's Monbiot on the the wildlife trusts conspiring with the road builders and developers in their own interests - very disturbing.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...t-collaborating-in-the-destruction-of-nature-

 

[davidsrsb]

The answer, as you know, is that we won’t be forced into another national lockdown because there’s another strategy: let the virus spread among the young and healthy, who have a smaller risk of serious illness; advise older people and more vulnerable people to isolate themselves; allow the economy to continue working.

Which turns into a catastrophe if a significant number of the young and healthy develop permanent lung damage. Long term damage to a young person is MUCH more expensive than to a pensioner

 

[mandryka]

Which turns into a catastrophe if a significant number of the young and healthy develop permanent lung damage.

That is true. If the disease reveals itself to be a scourge for the young as well as the old, and there is a generalised nation wide occurrence of exponential reinfection, then it may be that a widespread enforced severe lockdown is the only way of controlling it. There’s a lot of ifs there though, let’s deal with the scientific facts.

 

[tiggers]

That is true. If the disease reveals itself to be a scourge for the young as well as the old, and there is a generalised nation wide occurrence of exponential reinfection, then it may be that a widespread enforced severe lockdown is the only way of controlling it. There’s a lot of ifs there though, let’s stay positive.

Sorry, but are you a government bot that has infiltrated this forum? I think instead of 'let's stay positive' I'd rather deal in scientific facts if that's OK with you? And right now the facts we do have aren't painting a pretty picture.

 

[mandryka]

Sorry, but are you a government bot that has infiltrated this forum? I think instead of 'let's stay positive' I'd rather deal in scientific facts if that's OK with you? And right now the facts we do have aren't painting a pretty picture.

Yes you’re right. I shall change the post.

 

[jimbob75]

Living in a rural county of 192,000 with 463 confirmed cases, I am supporting my local businesses wherever I can. If that will shortly entail a pint in a beer garden all the better.

Of course, it's a balance between health & economy on one side and health on the other, and the scientific community is far from agreed, with far too much speculation and fear mongering by the media.

A shame David Miles got cut off on Newsnight last night, I prefer to hear a balanced argument before making judgements.

"Drastic measures were absolutely called for... but analysis we have done suggests we went past the point some weeks ago where the benefits of keeping lockdown outweighed it's enormous cost" - says David Miles, Professor of Economics at Imperial College, London

 

[mandryka]

It doesn't, but a bit of searching finds this:



So unless PHE were using a different system, the school was shut as a precaution and due to T&T.

https://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/...hool-announces-staff-member-isolation-1436822

Thanks, it was obvious that T and T had been involved. And indeed reassuring, as I said.

 

[davidsrsb]

Countries that have done well were the ones that went for an effective lockdown that made R close to zero and largely eliminated local spread in a month or so.
The UKs lockdown was damaging to the economy, but still kept R way above 0.5, so bringing infection rate down to low levels would have taken all year - the worst of all worlds

 

[Seanm]

Malign or stupid? With the current crop of Conservatives you don't have to choose. Collectively they are both malign and very, very stupid.

https://twitter.com/tobylloyd/status/1275130306387943425?s=20

"Really hope this is nonsense. A fire sale of public land - into a falling market - would be the dumbest possible way to revive the economy or the public finances, let alone build a positive legacy out of the crisis."

A mix of enthusiasm and panic inside the government is set to produce a toxic trail of poor decision-making, probably just in time for the next budget. The enthusiasm flows from the potential for a broad and far-reaching revolution ministers can see in the worst health and economic crisis for several generations.

This could be the best opportunity since the second world war to reshape Britain’s way of life, recasting the relationship between citizens and state. From a Tory perspective, ministers can champion self-reliance and sideline collective organisations that put barriers in the way of change.

The panic relates to the way money is slipping through ministers’ fingers as dramatic spending to deal with Covid-19 flows out of the Treasury. With hundreds of billions earmarked for rescue schemes that run until at least October and probably into next year, the narrative gaining ground inside the finance ministry focuses on the enormous debts Britain will incur and the limit on spending this will bring.

What does a Conservative government that thinks it is running out of funds for a prospective transformation do? It turns to the private sector to carry out the heavy lifting.

What if the private sector responds that it, too, is short of funds? Them the focus switches to creating a framework that lowers the costs of private sector investment to the point where it becomes irresistibly attractive.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...sale-property-assets-sunak-jenrick-sadiq-khan

 

[Tony L]

I’d be amazed if it wasn’t true, plus Jenrick has been caught with his hand in the till already (Guardian, and again). Tory priority #1 is always to divert public money and state assets into private pockets and this is a golden opportunity and Covid 19 a massive smokescreen.

 

[droodzilla]

Here's the government's chief medical advisor on 2m vs 1m:

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1275709791856459776

I can't date the original clip, so it's possible the scientific evidence has changed, but it's hard to believe it's changed that much.

 

[gavreid]

Here we have the direct consequence of Johnson being allowed an easy ride yesterday.

The entire medical establishment is showing what Starmer should have done yesterday but I fear the damage is now done. The front pages are full of the 2m rule being scrapped - instead of maintained as far as is practical.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08c02fb4fd881c#block-5ef329268f08c02fb4fd881c

 

[TheDecameron]

Norman Smith (political correspondent, right?) has been on BBC News this morning talking interminably about pubs reopening. Methinks Lord Mullet has been through the back door at Downing Street recently. The BBC is running a bottomless infomercial for Wetherspoons.