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Coronavirus - the new strain IX

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Seanm said:
When the government delayed lockdown, when it crippled track and trace, it passed down death sentences by the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, taking into account as yet unknown long term complications. It’s botching the end of lockdown so there’s many more to come. And Starmer’s playing the long game.
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Agree with the first part. The "botching the end of lockdown" may well be the case but if it was obvious this wouldn't be the 'balancing act' you refer to. But this should move quickly as information becomes available.
 
SteveS1 said:
How do you make that out of what he said? If there were the measures in place then doing what they are trying to do wouldn't look unreasonable, especially with some qualified support from the scientists. At the moment that scientific input looks cautious but split. Of course the feeling is that Johnson is lying about the support, going too quickly etc., but proving a negative right now is difficult. The key indicators will be watched closely if it begins to look different to the way Johnson has presented it, there will be no reason not to push much harder and louder.
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They’ve factored in a second wave for October all you have to do is follow the money the self employed grant is due to be paid for a second time in August and the furlough scheme ends in October so they’ve said but I’ll believe that when it happens.

This is a Tory government we’re talking about here handing out billions of pounds to the self employed that mob have never ever done anything like that ever.
 
Just for comparison:

Deaths announced in the 24 hour period on the day of lockdown (March 23): 99.

Deaths announced today on the point of lifting lockdown: 171.

I’ll just leave that there...
 
Tony L said:
Just for comparison:

Deaths announced in the 24 hour period on the day of lockdown (March 23): 99.

Deaths announced today on the point of lifting lockdown: 171.

I’ll just leave that there...
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I’m happy to believe anything of tories, but to be fair, March 23rd was a Monday.
 
Brian said:
I’m happy to believe anything of tories, but to be fair, March 23rd was a Monday.
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In which case it makes the figure even worse as that may have been 99 deaths over a weekend compared to 171 just yesterday. The point I’m trying to make is it is likely more dangerous right now than it was when we went into lockdown There has to be a huge peak on the way, surely? I really have no idea what they are thinking, it just seems against logic as the UK clearly does not have C19 under control yet.
 
Deaths are always lower over the weekend & Monday. There is generally a lag on reporting over the weekend so they tend to get rolled into later in the week. You need to compare like for like days.

I am reasonably OK with the releasing of restrictions, it is a balance of risks.

I really want to see a return to normality & for the NHS to resume other treatments.

This could all go to shit, I just hope it doesn’t.
 
droodzilla said:
For my part, as a minimum, I would insist on:

1. Daily deaths being consistently in low double digits (still a little way to go there).
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Every death is a tragedy, but basing your decision on "low double digits" of this one single datum looks a bit simplistic, a bit rigid and a bit arbitrary. I know it's more complicated, but maybe it would be better to base the decision on other information too - like the interaction between estimates of reinfection rate and incidence of infected people.

droodzilla said:
2. High quality info about the number of people tested and the results of those tests, at a granular enough level to enable local lockdowns if necessary.
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It would be nice to have this info, I agree, but I wouldn't think that it's a good idea to put the country on hold, to risk our children's futures, while waiting for these particular stats.

droodzilla said:
3. Some evidence that the test and trace processes are working effectively (not just Matt Hancock saying so).
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Yes well, you would say that about Hancock. There's plenty of evidence that T and T is working, a dear friend just put me on to this article if you don't believe Hancock -- they found the case, they isolated the bubble, PDQ. That's good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-53156069
 
Woodface said:
I am reasonably OK with the releasing of restrictions, it is a balance of risks.

I really want to see a return to normality & for the NHS to resume other treatments.
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The problem is the only thing that has changed is the political rhetoric. The virus remains unchanged. The way it spreads remains unchanged. There is no vaccine currently available. With the exception of Dexamethazone, which can reduce fatality by maybe 20-30% in some specific scenarios, there is no successful treatment. ‘Track and trace’ technology, which was the government’s key strategy to lift lockdown, has been proven largely mythical/fabricated. Sadly I only see one possible trajectory here.
 
Tony L said:
‘Track and trace’ technology, which was the government’s key strategy to lift lockdown, has been proven largely mythical/fabricated.
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Track and trace is the key strategy, not the technology of the app. The app is just the cherry on . . .
 
Tony L said:
The problem is the only thing that has changed is the political rhetoric. The virus remains unchanged. The way it spreads remains unchanged. There is no vaccine currently available. With the exception of Dexamethazone, which can reduce fatality by maybe 20-30% in some specific scenarios, there is no successful treatment. ‘Track and trace’ technology, which was the government’s key strategy to lift lockdown, has been proven largely mythical/fabricated. Sadly I only see one possible trajectory here.
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You could well be right.

I hope some behaviour will change, I am pretty confident it will. Many companies have SD in place & other mitigating policies so it is not like we are going back to pre Covid days.

We do already live with many incurable diseases & develop treatments for them (not cures).

I am on the waiting list for a hip replacement & this is a greater risk for me in terms of health & well being.

I am just trying to be optimistic without being blindly so.
 
I've not been watching the USA recently so todays FT chart comes as a shock:

EbKriNFWoAAWDTj


That's a 30%(ish) increase in new cases in just 10 days or so.

A preview of what the UK has to look forward to?
 
Track and trace is not going to be good enough to track the inevitable spikes and looks like we are heading for another lockdown in afew months
 
Doing some rough guessing, I am thinking I won’t be able to get back to the USA to be with family and friends until January; the US projections look dreadful, my suspicion is a few people I know will just not be alive when I get back there. I’m anxious about my friends lovers, partners with no safety net if they get sick or if they lose their jobs.
 
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