Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Yes, but how long can it remain in that position if its 'post-covid' rate of recovery can't match that of EU counterparts?
Brexit: give me a positive effect (2022 remastered edition) II
- Thread starter eternumviti
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Yes, but how long can it remain in that position if its 'post-covid' rate of recovery can't match that of EU counterparts?
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
Fire in the Disco ( EU)
Fire in the Dumpster (U.K)
Fire in the Dumpster (U.K)
Yebbut now we don't import cheese. Because that was a disgrace.
eternumviti
Insufficient privileges to reply.
Sure, but that's not what I said. You've given the figures for the percentage of total UK exports that are accounted for by the EU. I said that exports to the EU account(ed) for some 14% of UK GDP. In fact, I think that figure is for total trade (imports and exports), whilst exports to the EU in isolation account, I believe, for around 8% of GDP.
If my recollection is correct, only something like 3% of UK businesses export at all. The figure is a pre-brexit one.
Spraggons Den
pfm Member
Agree with most of this but I think your idea of the kind of terms the EU would insist on are pie in the sky.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
We know what the EU's terms will be, because they will be exactly the same terms as any other recent applicant has been expected to meet.
eternumviti
Insufficient privileges to reply.
Apart from short-term metrics, is there any compelling evidence that it isn't doing so? As far as I'm aware, even Germany is teetering on the brink of recession, if it isn't already in one.
The % of businesses that export is neither here nor there. It will surprise nobody that my pal's gardening business doesn't export. Nor do any of the shops at the end of my road. I'm not even sure whether my own business is considered to be "exporting" when I supply my services to a company in France or Ireland. The important figure is the total amount, we can all hazard a guess that Asda and Morrison's import a great deal of product.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
AFAICT, no.
As are a lot of the EU countries. What will be telling is how quickly they recover compared to the UK.
However, the UK has lower trade figures since Brexit. The loss of EU trade post-Brexit still outweighs any increase with non-EU countries and the lack of progress on trade deals (especially the much touted brilliant deal with the US we were going to have) would lead to the conclusion that unless the UK changes its strategy, it's going to take a long time, if ever, to recoup loss of EU-related trade; certainly longer than any country, or trading bloc that has established trade deals.
You can add to the mix that the great saviour, financial services, continue to migrate bases of operation to the EU.
Let's see what the OECD has to say (https://www.oecd.org/economy/)
UK: Following a contraction of 0.4% in 2023, GDP is projected to increase by 0.2% in 2024. Consumer price inflation will peak at around 10% in late 2022 (https://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot/)
Germany: The economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2022, contract by 0.3% in 2023 and recover by 1.5% in 2024. (https://www.oecd.org/economy/germany-economic-snapshot/)
France: Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2022, 0.6% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024 (https://www.oecd.org/economy/france-economic-snapshot/)
EU: After a strong first half of the year, real GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2022 and only 0.5% in 2023 owing to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, monetary policy tightening and the global slowdown. Growth is projected to rebound to 1.4% in 2024 (https://www.oecd.org/economy/euro-area-and-european-union-economic-snapshot/)
So, although there is no evidence, my assessment is that assuming that the UK could weather the storm and get out of the hole because it is currently the 6th biggest economy would be very foolish. Those economies which are not US or China and out on their own might not do as well as those with closer ties to a wider group of countries.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
Can’t disagree the tories are clueless, but what was happening was all out in the open in Parliament. It was on TV. Bercow was good, giving every opportunity for an agreement on a ‘soft’ brexit, Parliament at that time had a remain majority but there was no agreement on a soft brexit because they would not accept any kind of brexit.
eternumviti
Insufficient privileges to reply.
That's fair enough (though you forgot to show the UK's 2022 projection - the UK growth for 2022 is given as 3.6% against Germany's 1.8% and France's 2.6%) though I was certainly not assuming that the UK could recover because it is the 6th largest economy, or even despite it. We're not going to go anywhere until we go back to work, for a start.
Brexit - and the wall of red tape that leaving the bloc has tied around exporters and importers - apart, productivity seems to be an enormous issue pitching against growth. Petty bureaucracy seems to be a major factor in this. The mayor of London attempting to destroy London by making it impossibly expensive to drive within it even as the public transport system is in meltdown. My local district authority putting out traffic wardens in the local supermarket car park on a Sunday, when parking is free but you have to put a (free) ticket on your dashboard FFS. NHS hospitals introducing parking ticket machines that are impossible to operate, and then insisting that even their own employees have to pay to park. Any dealings with utilities, doctors' surgeries, the passport office, DVLA, banks and insurance companies leading to hours wasted on the end of a distorted muzak-torture phone line. Constant forms to fill in, most of them with the objective of making your business ever more instantly visible to HMRC and various overweening regulatory authorities. Planning applications taking months or years to reach any conclusion, and so on, we've all got experience of this, often every bloody day. Just getting the simplest things done seems to have become a nightmare since the pandemic. It isn't unique to the UK (France is notorious for it too), but it just seems to have reached breaking point, and it's absolute madness. The whole bloody lot needs sweeping away, but instead it just keeps getting worse.
I agree that the UK should ultimately seek a more constructive relationship with the SM, but it cannot be at the cost of being drawn under the EC/ECJ cosh without a voice. As far as I can see at the moment, the only way to begin to achieve that is to seek membership of the EFTA Court (which has teeth) and some sort of membership or associate membership of EFTA. Rightly or (probably) wrongly, it won't happen under a conservative led government.
ff1d1l
pfm Member
Lets hope not.
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