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Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

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sean99 said:
1/100k chance of death/serious injury vs maybe 5-10% chance of long COVID. I think I'd take my chances with the AZ jab.
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I would too if that was the only game in town but there are at least 3 alternatives and there will probably be more by the time most under 30s are offered a vaccine. BTW surviving these clots will be worse than long covid - many will never work again.
 
I’ve just read this article on the vaccines clot issue: AstraZeneca vaccine: How do you weigh up the risks and benefits? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-56665396

The comparisons have all been described in previous posts, but I found the narrative in this article helpful and clearly written.

The other thing, which I’ve said on here before, is seeking advice from your gp if you are concerned. The NHS have continually recommended this action as a way to actively get service users over their hurdle of doubt. I had a recent issue which I was unsure whether to contact my doctors about. They were lovely - prompt, helpful and did everything needed to confirm and reassure things with me.

I also do think the perspective of this side effect, when comparing it to other risks we take every day is worthy of thought.
 
Deejay said:
Think we have got to put things into perspective here.

The 79 cases and 19 deaths occurred after 20 million doses were administered. This is a risk of about four in one million of developing a blood clot and one in a million of dying. I was reading that you are twice as likely to be struck by lightning then die from a blood clot after taking the AZ vaccine.

In other words this is very rare and we don’t even know for sure that the AZ vaccine caused it. For me, the message even for under 30s should be that they can have this vaccine.
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The problem is of those 20 million who have been jabbed how many of them were in this risk group (30 year olds)?, or even female?, then the risk shoots up. Do 40 people die from lightning in this country?
Also the media here were giving France a hard time when they had had 7 deaths which was met with stony silence here even though the numbers here would have been known.
 
billo said:
The problem is of those 20 million who have been jabbed how many of them were in this risk group (30 year olds)?, or even female?, then the risk shoots up. Do 40 people die from lightning in this country?
Also the media here were giving France a hard time when they had had 7 deaths which was met with stony silence here even though the numbers here would have been known.
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Haven't there been 7 deaths (not 40) in the UK, 39 clotting epsiodes? A quick google suggests 18.4 is the average number for the yearly UK lightening death toll.
 
simon g said:
Come on, get a grip! Of course it's a risk. Life is one big risk. You could avoid most risks by just staying put in your house and not doing anything. Oh, don't boil a kettle, as every 1.5 minutes someone is burned or scalded in the UK

https://www.humanics-es.com/burns.pdf

The biggest risk you run all the time, I would imagine, is driving. There is a one in around 270 lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident. Best stop driving then.

Do you take Paracetamol? Better read this then:

https://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.h1186/rr-0


I suffer from a medical condition that has a risk of occurring of around 1 in 100,000 or so. Maybe it's best for you to stay at home and diminish that risk?

You an see my drift here. You're becoming needlessly anxious. The risk of blood clots is vanishingly small compared to virtually everything else you'll do today. The benefit of saving you, your friends, family and the wider community from a terrible death, or long term medical problem as a result of developing Covid 19 far outweigh the risks. If you want read more on risk analysis:

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ecpe/critical-risk-analysis-daily-lives/


Stop reading the headlines and get on with living your life!
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The thing that’s on my mind is the uncertainty around the second dose.

Britain is the big test site for those second doses. Will the MHRA pull the rug on it as soon as problems are suspected? Or will they once again wait for other countries to force their hand?
 
mandryka said:
The thing that’s on my mind is the uncertainty around the second dose.

Britain is the big test site for those second doses. Will the MHRA pull the rug on it as soon as problems are suspected? Or will they once again wait for other countries to force their hand?
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So far no clots from 2nd doses...though of course far fewer 2nd doses have been administered. Don't let it freak you out. You're far more likely to be run over.
 
The point they seem to have realised is you that can't in all good faith ask people to have the vaccine if the risk of death is greater than dying from the disease. That would completely destroy take up among the younger age groups and compromise the whole effort. I would expect the risk to be greater from the second dose since it promotes a stronger immune response. An informed choice is by far the better option.
 
hc25036 said:
On the news tonight they quoted something like 1 in 250,000 risk of a clot, with a higher risk of a clot (maybe 3 in 250,000 iirc) and a lower risk of death from COVID in younger people, especially females so that the risk benefit is less good for them.

I don’t have the numbers to hand, but at 1in 250,000 there are plenty of drugs (including the Pill, or indeed being pregnant) that have risks of serious adverse effects that order and are still taken in huge numbers every day without it being an issue. It’s also not far off the risk of being hit by lightning in the UK.
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It’s almost incalculable. It’s possibly more risky just trying to stay alive, or not eating a balanced diet, or drinking alcohol, or driving a car, or....
 
My Daughter is studying in South Korea, now that they have said the under 30s can have the vaccine (alternative) she can’t wait to get back here as apparently they are very slow at rolling out their vaccination plans. Apparently their numbers are on the increase after an unbelievably good monitoring and management of the earlier pandemic. I guess this is one of the pitfalls of the whole debate if you keep it out your always likely to be susceptible later on. Fingers crossed.
 
clivem2 said:
So far no clots from 2nd doses...though of course far fewer 2nd doses have been administered. Don't let it freak you out. You're far more likely to be run over.
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Well, I only cross when I see the little green man.

Ponty said:
It’s almost incalculable. It’s possibly more risky just trying to stay alive, or not eating a balanced diet, or drinking alcohol, or driving a car, or....
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Driving fast cars, getting pissed and eating chocolate is fun. Getting stabbed with AZ ain't.
 
sean99 said:
1/100k chance of death/serious injury vs maybe 5-10% chance of long COVID. I think I'd take my chances with the AZ jab.
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Yes for our age group, but people under 30 are at lower risk from COVID and have better "outcomes", so the risk/benefit calculation shifts for them. As shown by the table linked by gavreid in #1017. Also thromboembolic events are potentially very nasty things, regardless of age. So somebody in their 30s might be better off taking the COVID risk even if the table shows slightly more risk.
 
mandryka said:
Driving fast cars, getting pissed and eating chocolate is fun. Getting stabbed with AZ ain't.
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You don’t have to be driving a fast car for fun to be killed in a car accident, or get pissed every time you have a drink. They’ve not got to me yet, here in Wales they are starting with moderna. I couldn’t care less which one I’m given, I’ll take my chances and just be grateful to be given it.
 
peter bj said:
Why have the Europeans put so much focus on AZ causing problems , the Pfizer caused a lot of people to die or become ill from allergic reactions but this was quickly swept under the carpet ! and hardly talked about . I think the advisory for younger people to not have AZ is because they have given it to most of the older population and do not want to alarm them
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I imagine pharma will be expecting to make a lot of money out of their covid vaccines. They may not be happy with AZ supplying their vaccine so cheaply.
 
Chops54 said:
I imagine pharma will be expecting to make a lot of money out of their covid vaccines. They may not be happy with AZ supplying their vaccine so cheaply.
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I'm imagining an AZ vaccine 2.0 'now with added clot protection' which sells for, oh I don't know, maybe about the same as every other vaccine is going for. Yours from Autumn 2021 onwards.
 
Another thought - it's very often the case there is more than one medicine available to combat most illnesses or ailments. This is also evident in the different ways the Covid vaccines have been made. The media could have led with this, but we get more scaremongering instead.

Why not tailor the vaccine to a particular demographic, even if the data coming out to influence this is very new? I understand the concern, but there are ready made options.

Alternatively we could be living in Europe, or another country that are very slow on their vaccine program. Which would some prefer?
 
billo said:
The problem is of those 20 million who have been jabbed how many of them were in this risk group (30 year olds)?, or even female?, then the risk shoots up. Do 40 people die from lightning in this country?
Also the media here were giving France a hard time when they had had 7 deaths which was met with stony silence here even though the numbers here would have been known.
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Three of the people who died were under 30.

I’m all for letting people know the risks and benefits and making an informed choice, but the scaremongering has to stop. Some of the headlines in the national press are dangerous and it does make me worry what impact this is having on people getting the AZ vaccine or any vaccine for that matter.

These blood clots are very rare events and that should be made abundantly clear.
 
gavreid said:
The point they seem to have realised is you that can't in all good faith ask people to have the vaccine if the risk of death is greater than dying from the disease. That would completely destroy take up among the younger age groups and compromise the whole effort. I would expect the risk to be greater from the second dose since it promotes a stronger immune response. An informed choice is by far the better option.
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I don’t think that holds true. It’s equally likely that it’s a binary event - something in an individual’s genetics leads to the aberrant antibody being produced or not. The second dose would then have no different effect to the first.
 
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