thanks for that, also I’m guessing that they have no data after having the second dose as not many have had that, hopefully your risk doesn’t go up ten fold after the second !.
Coronavirus - the new strain XVII
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thanks for that, also I’m guessing that they have no data after having the second dose as not many have had that, hopefully your risk doesn’t go up ten fold after the second !.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Who knows. I don't think I'd fancy the AZ if I was in my 30s at all.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I reckon so, only 3 of the deaths in the UK were people in their 20s. Remember that risk from the virus goes up with case numbers though - that illustration is against a lower background than we currently have.
All numbers continuing on a good trajectory.
The Modena vaccine now being used gives another option and hopefully can cover any AZ manufacture and distribution problems for 1st doses.
The maths modelling that @Seanm linked to indicates quite strongly that opening up too soon will cause a spike later in the year and it could be quite serious (size dependent upon many factors).
So all this reads to me as; stick to the data driven plan.
The Modena vaccine now being used gives another option and hopefully can cover any AZ manufacture and distribution problems for 1st doses.
The maths modelling that @Seanm linked to indicates quite strongly that opening up too soon will cause a spike later in the year and it could be quite serious (size dependent upon many factors).
So all this reads to me as; stick to the data driven plan.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Let's hope so - he'll be under great pressure from his right to open up more quickly...
Why are the government specifically offering those under 30 an alternative vaccine when the remote risk has occurred in all ages?. It seems the goal posts are been moved?. When I had mine a few weeks ago - you had what was at the vaccination centre and was glad you had it. The Pfizer was available but was reserved for second doses of vaccine only?. Although I’m grateful for the AZ I had it would seem that a man or woman at 29 will be offered a choice and the same at 32/33 will have to take what is offered to them. I don’t understand how this can be fair on those only a couple of years older?. I’m taking my mum for her second jab of the AZ tomorrow will be interesting to see if there is as big a queue as when I took her for her first one!. I do think there is vaccine elitism developing, I’ve talked to a few people who have said oh I had the Pfizer when I went - no side effects nothing!, as if it makes them a cut above me who have had the AZ!.
Think it's young women on the pill who are most at risk of blood clots mate.
My son is 31 and he's just had his first dose of AZ, he's been on warfarin for blood clots for the last ten years or so following a pulmonary embolism, me and his mum, were worried sick but he seems fine.
sean99
pfm Member
1/100k chance of death/serious injury vs maybe 5-10% chance of long COVID. I think I'd take my chances with the AZ jab.
This was one of the banes of my working life - the numbers are stone-cold certain but perceptions and poor understanding of absolute risk ruin good decision making!
mandryka
pfm Member
I think very large numbers are really hard to understand. When people talk about a risk of 1 in 100K, it’s just very hard for me to conceptualise that risk, to say what it means for me, now. A small risk, a very small risk, is still a risk. And in this case if the gamble fails the consequences are potentially serious.
The problem feels bad because there are other vaccines without AZ’s risk, so AZ looks like a second class bargain basement solution which no one would want if given a choice.
The media is full of talk about the balance of risks and benefits. The question is whether it’s better to refuse AZ and wait until another vaccine is offered. A vaccine which doesn’t have these side effects associated. That wait is going to be for how long? Well you might get one offered straight away if you tell your GP your concerns, and even if you don’t, there’ll probably be a new vaccination programme in Autumn this year. So we’re talking about 6 to 9 months max, and that at a time when the prevalence of Covid may well be relatively low.
And as someone pointed out above, the effect of AZ on second doses is unknown. I am due a second AZ dose next month, I’m not sure what I’ll do.
The problem feels bad because there are other vaccines without AZ’s risk, so AZ looks like a second class bargain basement solution which no one would want if given a choice.
The media is full of talk about the balance of risks and benefits. The question is whether it’s better to refuse AZ and wait until another vaccine is offered. A vaccine which doesn’t have these side effects associated. That wait is going to be for how long? Well you might get one offered straight away if you tell your GP your concerns, and even if you don’t, there’ll probably be a new vaccination programme in Autumn this year. So we’re talking about 6 to 9 months max, and that at a time when the prevalence of Covid may well be relatively low.
And as someone pointed out above, the effect of AZ on second doses is unknown. I am due a second AZ dose next month, I’m not sure what I’ll do.
I hope in three weeks the powers that be don’t change their recommendations again and say one dose of AZ is enough as there is no need to increase your risk by having two doses. I won’t forgive myself if that comes to pass as I’m taking my mum to have the second one. I appreciate they are saying keep your appointments for the second dose but in all honestly are they just saying that as they don’t know one way or the other how much more of a risk this second amount could potentially cause. If the AZ gives 70% protection after one dose and the second dose just takes it up to 75% then I would expect a lot of people would potentially miss the appointment completely, given that there is a strong likelihood a third alternative and new jab may be needed come the Winter!.
Why have the Europeans put so much focus on AZ causing problems , the Pfizer caused a lot of people to die or become ill from allergic reactions but this was quickly swept under the carpet ! and hardly talked about . I think the advisory for younger people to not have AZ is because they have given it to most of the older population and do not want to alarm them
On the news tonight they quoted something like 1 in 250,000 risk of a clot, with a higher risk of a clot (maybe 3 in 250,000 iirc) and a lower risk of death from COVID in younger people, especially females so that the risk benefit is less good for them.
I don’t have the numbers to hand, but at 1in 250,000 there are plenty of drugs (including the Pill, or indeed being pregnant) that have risks of serious adverse effects that order and are still taken in huge numbers every day without it being an issue. It’s also not far off the risk of being hit by lightning in the UK.
I don’t have the numbers to hand, but at 1in 250,000 there are plenty of drugs (including the Pill, or indeed being pregnant) that have risks of serious adverse effects that order and are still taken in huge numbers every day without it being an issue. It’s also not far off the risk of being hit by lightning in the UK.
kensalriser
pfm Member
General anaesthetic carries a fatality risk of five in a million. I don't remember ever seeing any calls for it to be halted.
clivem2
pfm Member
The the low platelet count for the AZ issue. Is it likely the vaccine is causing low platlet counts or might the sufferers have a low platelet count to begin with? Possibly a combination of the two? Likewise do these suffers have a propensity for clotting in the first place but weren’t aware?
I believe what got Pfizer out of trouble is that their issue occurred with people who suffer allergic reactions in the first place. People could be warned off the jab. If AZ is causing issues with a minute proportion of people the link and causes need to be understood. Not easy though...
I believe what got Pfizer out of trouble is that their issue occurred with people who suffer allergic reactions in the first place. People could be warned off the jab. If AZ is causing issues with a minute proportion of people the link and causes need to be understood. Not easy though...
Think we have got to put things into perspective here.
The 79 cases and 19 deaths occurred after 20 million doses were administered. This is a risk of about four in one million of developing a blood clot and one in a million of dying. I was reading that you are twice as likely to be struck by lightning then die from a blood clot after taking the AZ vaccine.
In other words this is very rare and we don’t even know for sure that the AZ vaccine caused it. For me, the message even for under 30s should be that they can have this vaccine.
The 79 cases and 19 deaths occurred after 20 million doses were administered. This is a risk of about four in one million of developing a blood clot and one in a million of dying. I was reading that you are twice as likely to be struck by lightning then die from a blood clot after taking the AZ vaccine.
In other words this is very rare and we don’t even know for sure that the AZ vaccine caused it. For me, the message even for under 30s should be that they can have this vaccine.
simon g
Older, wiser but no longer retired
Come on, get a grip! Of course it's a risk. Life is one big risk. You could avoid most risks by just staying put in your house and not doing anything. Oh, don't boil a kettle, as every 1.5 minutes someone is burned or scalded in the UK
https://www.humanics-es.com/burns.pdf
The biggest risk you run all the time, I would imagine, is driving. There is a one in around 270 lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident. Best stop driving then.
Do you take Paracetamol? Better read this then:
https://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.h1186/rr-0
I suffer from a medical condition that has a risk of occurring of around 1 in 100,000 or so. Maybe it's best for you to stay at home and diminish that risk?
You an see my drift here. You're becoming needlessly anxious. The risk of blood clots is vanishingly small compared to virtually everything else you'll do today. The benefit of saving you, your friends, family and the wider community from a terrible death, or long term medical problem as a result of developing Covid 19 far outweigh the risks. If you want read more on risk analysis:
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ecpe/critical-risk-analysis-daily-lives/
Stop reading the headlines and get on with living your life!
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