Coronavirus - the new strain XVII
- Thread starter gavreid
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flatpopely
Prog Rock/Moderator
What are GPs warning against? I’m not far from you and no GPs saying anything against vaccinations.
All side effects -- including fever etc.
All of those are the square root of bugger all. With the vastly higher exposure to AZ doses, the rarer adverse events will start to be counted and the same will happen when the other two reach 20 million doses.
Seeing those numbers brings back memories of training any number of scientists to report clinical trial data, which goes ‘unless the studies or data collection were completely identical and in similar numbers of patients you cannot and absolutely should not compare events across studies’.
Indeed, and if they are ‘warning’ against MHRA advice they need reporting...
flatpopely
Prog Rock/Moderator
Indeed, I wonder what form the warning takes?
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
Risk of infection from contact with contaminated surfaces now believed to be 1/10,000:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html
People can be infected with SARS-CoV-2 through contact with surfaces. However, based on available epidemiological data and studies of environmental transmission factors, surface transmission is not the main route by which SARS-CoV-2 spreads, and the risk is considered to be low. The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 is through exposure to respiratory droplets carrying infectious virus.
In most situations, cleaning surfaces using soap or detergent, and not disinfecting, is enough to reduce risk. Disinfection is recommended in indoor community settings where there has been a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 within the last 24 hours. The risk of fomite transmission can be reduced by wearing masks consistently and correctly, practicing hand hygiene, cleaning, and taking other measures to maintain healthy facilities.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html
People can be infected with SARS-CoV-2 through contact with surfaces. However, based on available epidemiological data and studies of environmental transmission factors, surface transmission is not the main route by which SARS-CoV-2 spreads, and the risk is considered to be low. The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 is through exposure to respiratory droplets carrying infectious virus.
In most situations, cleaning surfaces using soap or detergent, and not disinfecting, is enough to reduce risk. Disinfection is recommended in indoor community settings where there has been a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19 within the last 24 hours. The risk of fomite transmission can be reduced by wearing masks consistently and correctly, practicing hand hygiene, cleaning, and taking other measures to maintain healthy facilities.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
You're twisting my words. They are warning (as in advising) that reaction to the second dose can often be stronger than to the first, which has been widely reported for months. My neighbour suffered for 4 days after only a sore arm after the first dose - she tells me that she was warned about it at the clinic. Nobody is saying don't get the second dose in the uk as far as I know, but they are/were in France for people who had previously contracted covid because reactions were often quite severe.
Here's a good description of what to expect.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ide-effects-pfizer-moderna-johnson-is-it-safe
Andrew C!
Been around a while....
I'm expecting 4 days of cold/fever type symptoms after my 2nd vaccination. I had a couple of days of feeling ropey after the 1st. I'll take either rather than ending up with hospital treatment or worse for Covid, thanks.
gintonic
50 shades of grey pussy cats
my neighbour had 4 days of feeling ropey after the first dose, and nothing after the second.
My mother had minor ache after dose 1 and nothing after dose 2?
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I was only days ago that many of you were poo poing the idea of a link between the AZ vaccine and the blood clot deaths, now it seems you don't want to believe in any side effects from the 2nd dose either. As I've said all along honesty about the vaccine is parmount to success.
Andrew C!
Been around a while....
Agreed. From what I've seen and read, no-one was ever saying there would not be any such side effects. If you are unsure, speak to your doctor 1st. They have access to your medical history, and the professional ability to interpret it.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
My UK Biobank antibody test kit is on its way. Will be interesting to see if the vaccine has provoked enough of a response to cross the sensitivity threshold for this test.
Gav - if I am in that group, my only current point is that I have serious doubts that the rare clotting disorder will be more common/severe after the second dose. Regarding the link with the AZ vaccine, I'm comfortable with the carefully weighed MHRA outcome compared the the fumbling around that much of Europe has done with partial hard information which will come back to bite them with lowered vaccine uptake.
I appreciate where you are coming from, and that one more brain clot is one too many, but objectively for the population (bar the under 30s) getting vaccinated with anything is better than not getting vaccinated.
Pretty sure that was just Manaus, they thought that they had cracked it and basically went back to normal last December opening everything up then the P1 variant kicked in and devastated the place and Brazil.
"Unherd
The initial title of a non-peer reviewed study released in pre-print in September 2020, Covid-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon, was, in hindsight, premature.1 Why the conclusion was so wrong is less certain, and not just down to overly optimistic assumptions.
For one thing, using blood donors as a sample may have skewed the results. “Donors are a special subset of the population,” says Paulo Lotufo, an epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo. They are more likely to spend time outside the home and work in jobs that put them at higher risk of contracting covid-19, he says. Lotufo believes the proportion of residents who have antibodies was likely lower, and that false confidence created by the first study played a role in causing the second surge in cases.
But several leading epidemiologists, while acknowledging the study’s limitations, believe significant inaccuracies are unlikely.
“It’s possible that the modelling is wrong, and seroprevalence (the amount of antibodies measured in the blood serum as a marker of pathogen exposure, used to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected) in people is actually lower, ” says William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard. “But I don’t think it’s possible that they were that much lower.”
Applying the expected fatality rate of covid-19 in Manaus with the study’s estimated 76% seroprevalence rate would also result in around the same amount of deaths that have been reported there, Hanage and others point out. “It’s likely that a large proportion of the population has been infected,” concludes Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London.
The donors mirror the general population well in age and income, contends Nuno Faria, an Oxford epidemiologist who co-led the study. “Excluding samples from people with covid-19 symptoms may have actually resulted in an undercount of antibodies,” he says.
So if the majority of the population had already been infected, and antibody levels really were that prevalent, how could the levels of infection have shot back up?"
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n394
Ponty
pfm Member
Yep, and as further variants develop which evade existing vaccines, we’re back to square one until the next vaccine is developed and rolled out. It’s like driving a car only being able to see out of the rear window.
Absolutely, they've conned us with the vaccine.
Previous successful vaccines took years and years to develop, except for the Asian flue vaccine circa 1958 which took months, mumps took over four years and we've only eradicated one serious illness in the history of mankind yet they tell us that the AZ vaccine was developed over a weekend.
The current vaccines are beginning to look a lot like snake oil.
Seanm
pfm Member
Question marks about the study that gave that figure as well.
Whatever the capacity of natural infection to provide immunity there have been various studies showing that the vaccines (all of them, I think) protect against the Brazil variant. So while it's obviously of concern, and being treated as such, we're nowhere near the start of this - at least in this country.
This isn't to say that things are going to go back to normal anytime soon, or ever.
Ponty
pfm Member
I think con is a little strong. I haven’t had mine yet but regard it as a sticking plaster rather than a fix.
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