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Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

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gavreid said:
That's odd because the Government reduced its estimate of vaccine rollout sharply yesterday, which should have the opposite effect.
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I think previous models had been working with some very conservative assumptions about roll out, take up and efficacy WRT transmission. The government's revisions are comparatively modest (3.2 to 2.7m per week?) in that context.
 
gavreid said:
I don't know, the redline shows another fall in July compared to a jump previously.

https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2021/04/vaccinerollout-zip/giv-825DWhW75NY8UmY/
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Yes, what’s the reasoning there do you know? With 4 months to plan we’re presumably not talking about unexpected contingencies but something fairly fundamental. But in relation to the model, it’s post-exit and all (willing and able) adults will have had at least one jab, the more vulnerable both, so I guess it’s not as significant a factor as it might be.

Those aren’t scare quotes around “exit wave” by the way - I’m not questioning the likelihood. But 30,000 always did seem high and it’s interesting and reassuring to see the official estimates being revised downwards.
 
Seanm said:
Yes, what’s the reasoning there do you know? With 4 months to plan we’re presumably not talking about unexpected contingencies but something fairly fundamental. But in relation to the model, it’s post-exit and all (willing and able) adults will have had at least one jab, the more vulnerable both, so I guess it’s not as significant a factor as it might be.

Those aren’t scare quotes around “exit wave” by the way - I’m not questioning the likelihood. But 30,000 always did seem high and it’s interesting and reassuring to see the official estimates being revised downwards.
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The paper is silent on that it just states the new numbers. There's also a great deal of uncertainty still and they've not allowed for waning immunity at all, I guess because they just don't know how long immunity lasts for, or how variants may emerge. The summary on page 1 of the report is helpful - they're very concerned about steps 3 and 4, much more so than step 2.
 
I see that the UK roll-out of the Moderna vaccine has started today. Novavax on its way at some point and the aim is to give younger people a single dose of the Johnson & Johnson jab later this year.

With AZ, I would imagine the risk from blood clots (if there is any) is greater the younger you are and other vaccines would be better suited. I’d happily have any vaccine though.
 
mandryka said:
https://www.midilibre.fr/2021/04/06...rancais-boudent-le-vaccin-moderna-9471434.php

The French people are starting to refuse Moderna - reasons are not clear. One suggestion is that they’re mixing it up with AZ, which, of course, they think is a sort of poison.
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Rubbish article IMO based on small sample, le Midi Libre is just trying to create le buzz.
I can tell you that when I took my father recently for his second jab of Moderna, the queue for first jab was massive (at least 100 people waiting patiently). I tried to put my name down in case there were any cancellations that week and the nurse just laughed, telling me I was just wasting my time. Same with the online system that works now: 0 pings for excess Moderna doses anywhere here.
 
Johnson has lashed his political fortunes to the vaccination mast. He’s never been away from vaccination centres and labs with his political film unit in tow. It’s the one thing he’s been perceived as not ****ing up. Will the evidence of harm from the AZ vaccine inflect his ratings downward? He has after all politicised a medicinal product to burnish his own image and when that product becomes tarnished...
 
TheDecameron said:
Johnson has lashed his political fortunes to the vaccination mast. He’s never been away from vaccination centres and labs with his political film unit in tow. It’s the one thing he’s been perceived as not ****ing up. Will the evidence of harm from the AZ vaccine inflect his ratings downward? He has after all politicised a medicinal product to burnish his own image and when that product becomes tarnished...
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Yes where's Hancock these days. Isn't the health dept his?

No doubt poor old Doormatt will be back out front when the inquest into Johnson's world class Test and Trace reports, or if there is another spike.
 
TheDecameron said:
Johnson has lashed his political fortunes to the vaccination mast. He’s never been away from vaccination centres and labs with his political film unit in tow. It’s the one thing he’s been perceived as not ****ing up. Will the evidence of harm from the AZ vaccine inflect his ratings downward? He has after all politicised a medicinal product to burnish his own image and when that product becomes tarnished...
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I hope those tory bstards haven't put millions of people's health and lives at risk and gone for the cheap option @ £1.60 a dose. I'd put nothing past those clowns.

The Brazil P1 variant looks like it's going to be even more deadly than the Kent variant and it could mean that we are all back to square one.
 
twotone said:
I hope those tory bstards haven't put millions of people's health and lives at risk and gone for the cheap option @ £1.60 a dose. I'd put nothing past those clowns.

The Brazil P1 variant looks like it's going to be even more deadly than the Kent variant and it could mean that we are all back to square one.
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The Brazil variant is indeed a great threat. Vaccine manufacturers will have had it sequenced and will be building the next generation of the Covid vaccine to deal with it, should it escape current vaccines. The problem is if it gets here first.

some good news here-

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-03-1...protect-against-brazilian-coronavirus-variant
 
TheDecameron said:
The Brazil variant is indeed a great threat. Vaccine manufacturers will have had it sequenced and will be building the next generation of the Covid vaccine to deal with it. The problem is if it gets here first.
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I watched the report on Channel four news last night on the P1 variant and the expert they had on said that it's the worst event ever in Brazil's entire history, he said that Sao Paolo had 1300 deaths on Monday and that is up three times on the same day three weeks ago.

He also said that the P1 variant is now the dominant strain in 39 countries around the world, Canada seems to be pretty badly affected.

The Brazilian doctor that they had on said that mortality is now running ten years younger than with the original strain.

https://www.channel4.com/news/brazils-covid-19-catastrophe-may-threaten-world-as-new-variant-spreads
 
TheDecameron said:
Johnson has lashed his political fortunes to the vaccination mast. He’s never been away from vaccination centres and labs with his political film unit in tow. It’s the one thing he’s been perceived as not ****ing up. Will the evidence of harm from the AZ vaccine inflect his ratings downward? He has after all politicised a medicinal product to burnish his own image and when that product becomes tarnished...
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I don't think AZ will tarnish him but a wave of deaths later in the year could do, certainly...
 
Under-30s in UK should be offered alternative Covid vaccine to AstraZeneca jab, says regulator

https://www.theguardian.com/society...vid-vaccine-to-astrazeneca-jab-says-regulator

Risk vs age (assumes low case numbers)

1916.jpg
 
With this apparently been confirmed as a potential risk for some, how look would you expect this to happen from having a vaccination within a week, a month or can it happen anytime?. No one seems to have asked that to the regulators?. Does the risk of developing these clots diminish a few weeks later?.
 
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