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Trump Part 20

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Interesting - I've just been on a conference call involving our US associate (an enthusiastic Trumper), and he is convinced that Trump is going to win bigger than in 2016. Moreover, he is going to win states that he didn't win last time, such as, possibly New York (I find that hard to believe - an old Republican-voting colleague resident in New York always said there was no point in his voting). His reason apart from wanting it to happen? He says that surveys show that 60% of people believe themselves to be better off now than they were 4 years ago.

He also thought that this Hunter Biden laptop is a big deal and that an indictment would follow. I had the impression that this was a piece of genuine fake news.

Interested to hear the views of our US contributors.
 
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I'm not a US contributor (sorry tones), but...

As much as I want Trump to lose, I have a feeling he's got a much better chance of winning than the polls currently indicate. The reason I think this is because his base is extremely driven and committed to him winning on 3rd November, and will drive up his vote accordingly. Biden, on the other hand, is decent enough but the biggest thing he's got going for him, IMHO, is that he is *not Trump*. Whether that's enough to get him into the White House is anybody's guess. Also, I think there is some substance to what tones' US associate colleague said:

He says that surveys show that 60% of people believe themselves to be better off now than they were 4 years ago.
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As much as there might be outrage across the rest of the world at Trump, his appalling presidency and where he has taken the US in the 4 years he's been in office, we should remind ourselves that Americans see their country very differently from the rest of us.

I am dreading it but I would not be at all surprised if Trump sneaks a win on November 3rd.
 
Too pessimistic Jon. I don't see him winning. Biden's lead is twice that of Hillary and she won the popular vote easily.

The dems don't have as divisive a figure for their candidate.
Trump is not an unkown quantity and has an appalling record of failure that is getting worse.
His increasingly desperate antics may give some of his base hard ons, but frankly those are not the voters he needs.

I think the real danger is him not accepting the result. I have no confidence in the US authorities dealing with him as they can't even organise an election without chaotic queues and voter suppression.

It could be that the rush to vote early is for a sitting President, but I somehow doubt it. People tend to rush to oppose.
 
JonR said:
I'm not a US contributor (sorry tones), but...

As much as I want Trump to lose, I have a feeling he's got a much better chance of winning than the polls currently indicate. The reason I think this is because his base is extremely driven and committed to him winning on 3rd November, and will drive up his vote accordingly. Biden, on the other hand, is decent enough but the biggest thing he's got going for him, IMHO, is that he is *not Trump*. Whether that's enough to get him into the White House is anybody's guess. Also, I think there is some substance to what tones' US associate colleague said:



As much as there might be outrage across the rest of the world at Trump, his appalling presidency and where he has taken the US in the 4 years he's been in office, we should remind ourselves that Americans see their country very differently from the rest of us.

I am dreading it but I would not be at all surprised if Trump sneaks a win on November 3rd.
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The 60% figure appears to come from here:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nearly...heyre-better-off-financially-than-a-year-ago/

Note that that was before COVID struck. Against this, the FT (presumably with no axe to grind) has a different pre-COVID view:

https://www.ft.com/content/ce7e9f7c-fc13-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

The current situation appears to be ambiguous:

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/08/20/better-off-today-poll

I think there's no doubt that Biden has a better chance than Clinton, simply because he is not Clinton and doesn't come with all the Clinton baggage. Whether this translated into a win is another question, given the voter disenfranchisement and gerrymandering.
 
Democratic voters are EXTREMELY motivated, not by Biden, but by the horrifying thought of four more years of Trump. The huge lines for early voting are not just a sign of GOP voter suppression, they're also an indicator that democratic voters are voting in record numbers.
I am very worried by the non-zero probability of a Trump win, but I think he is much less likely to win this time than in 2016, when there was true apathy among democratic voters, and a general belief that Trump could never win, and would probably pivot to the center if he did.
 
I suspect the Hunter Biden email story was supposed to be Trumps big "October Surprise" but it fizzled out on him when none of the media bit. It has a bit of traction inside the ultra right wing bubble, but elsewhere it's being treated like a hot potato.
 
sean99 said:
Democratic voters are EXTREMELY motivated, not by Biden, but by the horrifying thought of four more years of Trump. The huge lines for early voting are not just a sign of GOP voter suppression, they're also an indicator that democratic voters are voting in record numbers.
I am very worried by the non-zero probability of a Trump win, but I think he is much less likely to win this time than in 2016, when there was true apathy among democratic voters, and a general belief that Trump could never win, and would probably pivot to the center if he did.
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I hope you're right, Sean.
 
It might be a landslide eventually but we'll not know the final result for 5-7 days post polling day...don't postal votes just need to be stamp marked by polling day?

Should he lose, he's not likely to accept it tho
 
I don't understand what they hope to get out of the Biden computer - if it is fully on the level.
All it would show is that he is a wanna be Eric or Don Jr
Have they not been caught / implicated doing the same or worse?
 
I drive by the main early-voting site for my county on my morning commute. Monday morning, when early voting commenced, there was a line of voters all the way around the block. Tues and Weds there were lines, but they looked more manageable.
 
I suspect it might be closer than the polls suggest but unless Trump turns around Florida and Pennsylvania then he's toast?
 
tqineil said:
I suspect it might be closer than the polls suggest but unless Trump turns around Florida and Pennsylvania then he's toast?
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Pennsylvania is, once again, the key swing state. Trump could win Florida and several other states where Biden now leads in polls, but still lose the election if Pennsylvania goes for Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Take a look at the section entitled "The winding path to victory".
 
People in Florida and Alaska have received emails threatening violence if they don’t vote Republican. Disgusting tactic which I hope has no effect on voters, but I worry about the elderly and the vulnerable.

Note the email likely did not come from this particular domestic white supremacist group. The emails were routed through servers in Estonia and Saudi Arabia. Hopefully DHS can identify the actual source(s) soon.

i0PolVO.jpg


https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/politics/threatening-emails-sent-to-voters-florida-alaska/index.html
 
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