How Long Before A Vote Of No Confidence In Johnson Government?

[kendo]

Ken, Sorry, I thought it was obvious the specific point was in relation to the Labour position on the VoNC. The Labour position on this is fine, imo.

Given that it's all that seems to be being bandied about of any substance, crack on, and don't be mincin' wi' Swinson.

 

[Brian]

I’d have thought having such piss-poor and incoherent leadership it is actually predicted to lose 30 seats come a GE wasn’t a particularly great strategy with regard to that aim!

A couple of things.
The Labour leadership is not incoherent. Labour's position has been clear for a long time but because it hasn't lined up with hard-remainer demands some people have jumped on the right-wing narrative of Labour policy being unclear/incoherent.

We''ll have to disagree on everything to do with Labour.

Because it is dishonest to pretend you want to vote out the current government and then block the only way to do it. The more people understand why the labour leadership is doing this the more support they will lose.

It would be dishonest, but that's not what Labour is doing. Labour wants to replace the tory government and there is nothing wrong or odd about that. Tory supporters will disagree, of course.

It is currently looking fine for the labour leadership but less so the labour members who would like to stop no deal and remain by a substantial margin.

Replacing the tory govt is the biggest issue and by a substantial margin.

Like effectively killing a vote of no confidence in the current Tory government? Yeah right.

Again. That is not what Labour is doing. That's what the LibDems are trying to do.

As a lifelong labour supporter what I would like to happen is that the hard left controlled labour party lose enough votes to the greens, libdems, SNP,... so that they have a significantly moderated role in a new coalition government. In practice this likely means the libdems getting more seats than labour with the conservatives as the largest party (unavoidable at present I suspect) but unable to form a right wing coalition government.

You've been told many times by different people here that Labour is not hard-left.

It depends on what you call a labour voter. I have been a labour voter all my life (except for a couple times when living in lib vs con seats where I voted tactically against the conservatives) and want to vote labour but I will not vote for a hard left controlled labour party as is the case for many labour voters. I suspect that after the current process of deselecting labour MPs has completed there will be less confusion about traditional labour and "new" labour. It is a pity that the new labour label has already been taken. "Real" Labour perhaps? Or "Hard" Labour?

Again, Labour is not a hard-left party. If you want to vote in a way that helps enable a tory govt just say so.

By Labour voter what I mean is Labour supporter. They may not necessarily vote Labour. It is someone who believes in Labour core values compared to the ideology of the tories, for
example. They are very different.

This hard-left thing you keep on about. If you continue to claim Labour is hard-left it's about time you highlight something, anything in the Labour manifesto that you believe to be hard-left. It could be we have lurched so far to the right that, giving just one example, you mistakenly believe properly funding social services, not slashing benefits is hard-left, or something.

Looking forward to seeing an example. Seriously.

https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/

Cheers

 

[MVV]

No-deal Brexit should sound the death-knell of the Tory party as it will calamitous for the country. But no-one appears to be suggesting this. How can the party of prosperity which thrives on its connections to the business world not feel like an endangered species? In theory the country; workers, managers, health and social services are going to be kicked in the teeth and yet there is no sign that the Brexit clamour is dying down. Even with a no-deal, the Tories could still win a GE. True Labour hasn't been at its best but it's not all down to them. My question really is; when did self-flagellation become a thing?

I don't think it is about self-flagellation it has become about winning. There is no logic but there is context, just for once in a bizarre coalition of older comfortable reactionaries and the disenfranchised the 'liberal elites', with their 'political correctness' have been beaten. However narrowly, beaten and they felt like, for once they won and they will be buggered if that victory is to be overturned.
Don't start talking about complexity, we won. Don't start taking about a divided country we won and we never win. Even it it hurts we won.

...and in a way I understand it. It was a divided country before and all the power and influence was with the 'liberal elites'. People felt left behind but that was in education, thinking, art, literature and political discourse; many white people felt excluded from what they saw as their own culture and traditions. Now it is different, it's simple again; we won, get over it!

 

[SteveG]

It's why the Greens and the SNP got behind Corbyn's plan immediately, and dismissed Swinson's out of hand.

The SNP's response was a sensible one i.e. we will support anything that stops a no-deal Brexit, even if it means supporting Corbyn who we think is an idiot (because he's not quite as bad as the idiot that's leading the Tories).

 

[Cav]

I’d have thought having such piss-poor and incoherent leadership it is actually predicted to lose 30 seats come a GE wasn’t a particularly great strategy with regard to that aim!

Corbyn has outsmarted your latest precious LibDem Leader. Why not just admit you hate Corbyn and nothing he could do would be good enough?

 

[Tony L]

Corbyn has outsmarted your latest precious LibDem Leader. Why not just admit you hate Corbyn and nothing he could do would be good enough?

I’m prepared to bet that the Libs will move forward in a GE whether it is before or after Brexit, and a Corbyn-led Labour party will move backwards, so who is the smart one again? IIRC the Labour activist ‘Leftiestats’ page Sean linked to upthread said +21 vs. -30! I’d not be surprised if it was even worse than that for Labour either given how terribly they did in the local and EU elections. Corbyn support at this stage is really starting to look like religion, it has no discernible grounding in evidence or rationality.

 

[Cav]

I’m prepared to bet that the Libs will move forward in a GE whether it is before or after Brexit, and a Corbyn-led Labour party will move backwards, so who is the smart one again? IIRC the Labour activist ‘Leftiestats’ page Sean linked to upthread said +21 vs. -30! I’d not be surprised if it was even worse than that for Labour either given how terribly they did in the local and EU elections. Corbyn support at this stage is really starting to look like religion, it has no discernible grounding in evidence or rationality.

All this prediction is just wishful thinking on any side.

If there is a General Election, I bet Labour will be the major Party.

Tory supporters will bet that Tory will be the major Party.

No one, not even the Libdems, will bet LibDems will be anything other than the ushers at the wedding.

 

[gassor]

I don't think it is about self-flagellation it has become about winning. There is no logic but there is context, just for once in a bizarre coalition of older comfortable reactionaries and the disenfranchised the 'liberal elites', with their 'political correctness' have been beaten. However narrowly, beaten and they felt like, for once they won and they will be buggered if that victory is to be overturned.
Don't start talking about complexity, we won. Don't start taking about a divided country we won and we never win. Even it it hurts we won.

...and in a way I understand it. It was a divided country before and all the power and influence was with the 'liberal elites'. People felt left behind but that was in education, thinking, art, literature and political discourse; many white people felt excluded from what they saw as their own culture and traditions. Now it is different, it's simple again; we won, get over it!

Two things. It certainly has something to do with taking back control (???), but that means people have rejected the basic premise of the last 200 years ie 'it's the economy stupid'. Secondly, why is big business not shouting from the rooftops making all sorts of threats and gestures, afterall their profitability (in many cases) is going to get hammered. Why are Tory supporters sleepwalking over the cliff edge?

 

[Brian]

Two things. It certainly has something to do with taking back control (???), but that means people have rejected the basic premise of the last 200 years ie 'it's the economy stupid'. Secondly, why is big business not shouting from the rooftops making all sorts of threats and gestures, afterall their profitability (in many cases) is going to get hammered. Why are Tory supporters sleepwalking over the cliff edge?

Good question.

 

[Mullardman]

Tony. Are you really happy with the current state of the Lib Dems and their leader, who apart from being anti Brexit, is further right than many Tory MPs?

 

[farfromthesun]

why is big business not shouting from the rooftops making all sorts of threats and gestures, afterall their profitability (in many cases) is going to get hammered. Why are Tory supporters sleepwalking over the cliff edge?

NDA's

 

[glancaster]

...exactly what the tories want in killing a vote of no confidence.

I’m not so sure about that. The Tories, or at least the Boris supporters, do fine if there’s a successful vote of no confidence, as long as it isn’t followed by a successful vote of confidence in another government. They get Brexit without parliamentary ‘interference’, followed swiftly by the General Election they wanted. Everyone else - Remainers and Brexit Party - would struggle to react: what do they do once we’ve left?

I elided the rest of your post, because I agree with it

 

[MVV]

Two things. It certainly has something to do with taking back control (???), but that means people have rejected the basic premise of the last 200 years ie 'it's the economy stupid'. Secondly, why is big business not shouting from the rooftops making all sorts of threats and gestures, afterall their profitability (in many cases) is going to get hammered. Why are Tory supporters sleepwalking over the cliff edge?

I don't pretend to know butI have heard business making lots of noises but they are busy getting stuff lined up and much of this is outside their direct influence. On the other hand my senior mate in IBM says "well in all change there are opportunities". They are probably also keeping their powder dry because until we know what is going to actually happen they have no choice but to contingency plan what to do when whatever happens happens. If there is a no-deal Brexit we will see things happen very quickly, be that UK redundancies and businesses re-locating or accepting huge government support to remain based here.
As for Tory supporters, I guess most are retired so for them it is more about identity.
For me I have accepted that whatever happens this will be seen as a curious historical blip and in ten years we will be part of some form of EU, using the Euro or some other unified European currency..

 

[Swamp Thing]

Secondly, why is big business not shouting from the rooftops making all sorts of threats and gestures, after all their profitability (in many cases) is going to get hammered.

Most large multi-national businesses will lobby national governments and super-national bodies (EU, UN etc) privately to raise their concerns. They deliberately do not express anything too forcefully as being seen to "bully" democratically elected governments is likely to harm their brand(s) worldwide to a greater extent than any local difficulty could do. We only find out about their opinions if governments choose to leak the information for their own ends. They will just quietly vote with their feet over the next few years by not investing in UK operations and drift away.

More UK centric large businesses - ports and airports being a good example - have been more vocal about the issues. But they also (as noted above) have often been gagged. I can tell you that HMRC is about as ready for Brexit as I am to take on Mohammed Ali in his prime - but they (who collectively would carry weight) can't without retribution from Whitehall. If you are largely UK based then you require licensing and approvals from all sorts of government agencies. Keeping quiet is the price for being kept in the loop and being able to continue. Many of these businesses are about to fail anyway. But complaining too loud may ensure that failure.

I spend about 50% of my time advising in the private sector and 50% in the public. Because that is the shape of the economy. The people who in my opinion are really bricking it are those in the public sector who have just lived through the rape of public services that was austerity, and are now contemplating Brexit. All of the private sector issues will land on the public sector in the form of more unemployed, more homeless, more mental illness etc plus less funding with which to provide services.

I have started recusing myself from a number of public projects because I believe they are bordering on immoral, or in some cases possibly illegal. It is beginning to be a little scary.

 

[kendo]

Most large multi-national businesses will lobby national governments and super-national bodies (EU, UN etc) privately to raise their concerns. They deliberately do not express anything too forcefully as being seen to "bully" democratically elected governments is likely to harm their brand(s) worldwide to a greater extent than any local difficulty could do. We only find out about their opinions if governments choose to leak the information for their own ends. They will just quietly vote with their feet over the next few years by not investing in UK operations and drift away.

More UK centric large businesses - ports and airports being a good example - have been more vocal about the issues. But they also (as noted above) have often been gagged. I can tell you that HMRC is about as ready for Brexit as I am to take on Mohammed Ali in his prime - but they (who collectively would carry weight) can't without retribution from Whitehall. If you are largely UK based then you require licensing and approvals from all sorts of government agencies. Keeping quiet is the price for being kept in the loop and being able to continue. Many of these businesses are about to fail anyway. But complaining too loud may ensure that failure.

I spend about 50% of my time advising in the private sector and 50% in the public. Because that is the shape of the economy. The people who in my opinion are really bricking it are those in the public sector who have just lived through the rape of public services that was austerity, and are now contemplating Brexit. All of the private sector issues will land on the public sector in the form of more unemployed, more homeless, more mental illness etc plus less funding with which to provide services.

I have started recusing myself from a number of public projects because I believe they are bordering on immoral, or in some cases possibly illegal. It is beginning to be a little scary.

And still there are those who think Brexit is a good idea and are hell bent on it.

 

[MVV]

All of the private sector issues will land on the public sector in the form of more unemployed, more homeless, more mental illness etc plus less funding with which to provide services.

Now that is an extremely good point. Yes it will cost businesses to shift but the big players can stand it and there may be opportunities in doing so. The collateral damage you outline will remain here and with a reduced tax take the public sector will have to cope somehow. Whatever we are seeing the last years of a Conservative Party in the last stages of dementia.

 

[Tony L]

Tony. Are you really happy with the current state of the Lib Dems and their leader, who apart from being anti Brexit, is further right than many Tory MPs?

There are a remarkable amount of lies and smears being pushed on social media by an increasingly desperate, shrieking and marginalised Labour Party clearly in a state of panic due to the seats they know they are about to lose. The truth will out when we get to see the Lib Dem manifesto and get to compare it with the last one. I’ve seen the Momentum, AAV etc Facebook propaganda and I know enough about the Lib Dems to know much of it is just desperate bullshit (either fundamental lies such as the Thatcher statue thing, or a fundamental misunderstanding/misrepresentation of how coalition politics works). Swinson wasn’t my choice of Leader, but compared to either Johnson or Corbyn I’ll likely take my chances! Plus, obviously, one votes for the party, not the leader, as folk telling everyone not to be put off by the Labour pillocks keep telling us!

I’m a floating voter, always have been. I know I won’t be voting for a Corbyn-led Labour Party, and obviously I won’t vote Tory, so really it is between the Libs, Greens, or spoiling my paper. I’ll make that decision once I’ve read all the manifestos as usual. I’m not certain I want to vote for any party that might prop either Corbyn or Johnson up, so really I’ll be looking for the Libs to stay as an independent autonomous block. Again, the manifestos will be an interesting read...

 

[Joe P]

kendo,

And still there are those who think Brexit is a good idea and are hell bent on it.

In the great Venn diagram of life, the overlap between people who still think Brexit is a good idea and those that think climate change isn't happening is damn near perfect. Maybe the heat has fried their brains.

Joe

 

[Cav]

There are a remarkable amount of lies and smears being pushed on social media by an increasingly desperate, shrieking and marginalised Labour Party clearly in a state of panic due to the seats they know they are about to lose.

Oh, please. The only people in a panic are LibDems who chose the wrong Leader...again. Your posts become more hysterical by the hour.

 

[Tony L]

-30. +21.