How Long Before A Vote Of No Confidence In Johnson Government?

[ks.234]

If this is a correct analysis, and it might be, then Labour needs to get this message out pretty urgently. Currently the idea that he’s a ditherer is winning the day. Gordon Brown was one of those and it took Alastair Darling to negotiate the treacherous waters of the 2008 crash. In this current crisis, people will look to a decisive figure, even if that means they look to the wrong one.

The negative idea of Corbyn might be winning the day.

The positive idea that Brexit is a great, good and wonderful, despite the evidence, is also winning the day

The sources of both ideas are much the same

 

[gassor]

If you’re talking Brexit, then yes, the glacial speed of progress is down to Corbyn. It was Corbyn who led Labour to a result at the last election the utterly confounded expectations and stopped the progress of Brexit in its tracks. If May had got the increase majority she was expecting, Brexit would be a done deal by now. Fact is, Corbyn has got us to the point where we might’ve had a successful VoNC and a chance to vote Remain, until that too was sabotaged by Swinson.

It has been clear for some time that dear old leader knew exactly what he was doing when he sat on the fence for 3 years and refused to give a clear direction to the voting public. I mean who else could come up with that approach and make Brexit stop in its tracks? Three cheers for Jeremy.

 

[gassor]

The sources of both ideas are much the same

You didn't see the Sunday Times yesterday then?

 

[TheDecameron]

If this is a correct analysis, and it might be, then Labour needs to get this message out pretty urgently. Currently the idea that he’s a ditherer is winning the day. Gordon Brown was one of those and it took Alastair Darling to negotiate the treacherous waters of the 2008 crash. In this current crisis, people will look to a decisive figure, even if that means they look to the wrong one.

If you were to stop people in the street and ask them Labour’s position on Brexit, how many could tell you?

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

If you were to stop people in the street and ask them Labour’s position on Brexit, how many could tell you?

That’s my point, in a nutshell.

 

[ks.234]

It has been clear for some time that dear old leader knew exactly what he was doing when he sat on the fence for 3 years and refused to give a clear direction to the voting public. I mean who else could come up with that approach and make Brexit stop in its tracks? Three cheers for Jeremy.

You’d prefer Brexit done and dusted by now then?

 

[glancaster]

So, even a left-wing Labour activist feed concedes Corbyn’s Labour will get battered to the tune of 30 seats in a GE against the worst Tory government in living memory!

These numbers are versus the 2017 General Election. Quite a lot has changed in the Commons since then. If comparing against today’s composition, neither Labour nor the Tories lose as many (as they already lost loads since 2017). The Tories would be -1 and Labour -15.

It’s oh so close.

P.S. Also, depending on the exact composition of ‘Others’ - specifically whether the DUP keep their 10 seats - it could be this result leads to the same government majority as now, with the lost Tory being subbed for a Brexit Partyer.

 

[h.g.]

So, what if Swinson is correct? i.e. Corbyn is throwing away an opportunity to win a VoNC and remove hard Brexit as an option?

This removes the best opportunity to remove our harmful hard right government but there are other options to stop or at least delay a no deal brexit. What sticks in my craw is that this stunt looks to be achieving exactly what the hard left controlling the labour party want: brexit, conservatives owning the coming crash and the appearance of opposition to win back old centre left supporters from the libdems. Since shifting to a slightly more pro Europe posture a few weeks ago labour support in the polls has started to rise again. If this stunt doesn't get widely called for the stunt that it is then labour support is almost certain to continue growing at the expense of the libdems. By backing off and not sticking to her guns Swinson has rather deflated the discussion of the stunt in the media strongly suggesting the labour leadership is going to get away with it. I don't know the reasoning behind this by the libdems and the other opposition parties but if they have accepted that Corbyn isn't going to step aside so that a vote can succeed then they will likely follow what plays best to their crowd. Inexperience may explain Swinson's initial statement of the plain and simple truth.

Without the labour leadership working to stop a no deal brexit I cannot see how it can be prevented. While a large proportion of the country believes a no deal brexit will at worst be mildly harmful, will bring back control for the popular Johnson, Farage and friends and return the opportunities to be prosperous we used to have when were great outside the EU the conservatives are going to be the largest party in an Autumn general election. I suspect it will take some extraordinary and unexpected problems in the days after brexit to change that. Of course after a year or two Christmas is likely to become clear to many if not most of the turkeys.

The question is will the current opposition be large enough to form a government and will they be prepared to work with the hard left that currently controls the labour party? (hopefully after deselecting many labour MPs they will change their name and stop pretending to be the labour party - the faithful party perhaps). The next government is going to have a pretty bad mess to deal with which will make them unpopular. I suspect some will seriously consider sitting it out in opposition building support and, hopefully, forming a rational political party to supports the interests of the 99% and wealth creating businesses which are also getting a kicking at the moment.

 

[Seanm]

This is worth highlighting as it is fascinating. From the above link:



So, even a left-wing Labour activist feed concedes Corbyn’s Labour will get battered to the tune of 30 seats in a GE against the worst Tory government in living memory!

Sadly no detail given as to how the seat numbers are calculated, which would be interesting. My bet is in the current highly divisive climate Banks’ hard-right Brexit “Party” may be rather more potent than just one seat, but I’d love to be proven wrong on that. Looking good for the Libs and SNP anyhow!

Well no, I don't concede that, because I know that polls like this have zero predictive value.

But let's say I do. The point, whatever one thinks of the predictive value of polls, is that the Brexit Party is a problem for the Conservatives, and leavers more generally, and not for remainers: they'll split the Tory/leave vote without picking up seats themselves.

The other point, if you do believe these things can tell the future, is that even if remainers fail to vote tactically, and vote Lib Dem even when that will let the Tories in, they are still going to take seats from the Tories.

In other words, remainers have nothing to fear from a GE (unless they do something stupid like implement a government of national unity): whatever happens to Labour, it's very likely to result in a majority for a second referendum (which - reminder - we currently do not have!)

On the other hand some remain parties do have rather a lot to fear from a GE: the Lib Dems, if it becomes impossible to frame Labour as leavers-in-disguise; and CHUK or whatever they're calling themselves right now, who are polling at 0%. They are definitely turkeys being asked to vote for Christmas, but I don't see what choice they have: remain is all they've got, and it's going to become more and more obvious that Corbyn's plan is the only path to remain. Ditto the Tory rebels. If they're seen as blocking it their post-parliamentary career goes up in smoke too: they'd become symbols of stupid, slippery, self-interested hypocrisy.

 

[Stunsworth]

McDonnell is now saying the Labour Party may not back remain in any referendum.

 

[Seanm]

Well no, I don't concede that, because I know that polls like this have zero predictive value.

But let's say I do. The point, whatever one thinks of the predictive value of polls, is that the Brexit Party is a problem for the Conservatives, and leavers more generally, and not for remainers: they'll split the Tory/leave vote without picking up seats themselves.

The other point, if you do believe these things can tell the future, is that even if remainers fail to vote tactically, and vote Lib Dem even when that will let the Tories in, they are still going to take seats from the Tories.

In other words, remainers have nothing to fear from a GE (unless they do something stupid like implement a government of national unity): whatever happens to Labour, it's very likely to result in a majority for a second referendum (which - reminder - we currently do not have!)

On the other hand some remain parties do have rather a lot to fear from a GE: the Lib Dems, if it becomes impossible to frame Labour as leavers-in-disguise; and CHUK or whatever they're calling themselves right now, who are polling at 0%. They are definitely turkeys being asked to vote for Christmas, but I don't see what choice they have: remain is all they've got, and it's going to become more and more obvious that Corbyn's plan is the only path to remain. Ditto the Tory rebels. If they're seen as blocking it their post-parliamentary career goes up in smoke too: they'd become symbols of stupid, slippery, self-interested hypocrisy.

Swinson's intervention was a stab at changing the situation, not describing it: it's not one that can be proved correct or incorrect. Basically she was saying to the other opposition parties, "Guys, I've got a great plan! OK it's a bit sketchy like and wildly counterintuitive, but hear me out..." And all the other opposition parties said, "No thanks, we prefer this other plan." For reasons that are very very obvious. So that's it, it's done.

And again, the absolute contortions required to see Labour as pushing for no deal. It's wild! Are the other opposition parties in on this elaborate act of deception, or have they been taken in? What about the hard leftists at The Observer? That Tory guy?

 

[Tony L]

McDonnell is now saying the Labour Party may not back remain in any referendum.

He can stick his VoNC right up his arse then!

PS Being more serious this means there won’t be a GE before the Tories crash us out of the EU, likely without a deal.

 

[jackbarron]

Corbyn is doing a speech in Corby, Northamptonshire, at the moment. He is talking about stopping No Deal, becoming an interim national leader and gearing up for for a general election.

If Labour get into power, he says, there will be a national vote to decide whether Brexit should take place or not. This will feature all options including Remain.

He has just said that Labour will nationalise public utilities. This has got the biggest cheer so far and it is something I agree with.

Do I trust Corbyn or Labour?

Not when it comes to Brexit. And I have been a socialist since I was a teenager.

Corbyn has proved in the last three years that he is a vote whore. I think he will continue to lick the backsides of racist and nationalist voters when it comes to Brexit.

Jack

 

[droodzilla]

McDonnell is now saying the Labour Party may not back remain in any referendum.

Typical Guardian mischief-making to fluff-up its overwhelmingly Remain readership.

See also the Guardian's refusal to print the fact that Labour will campaign for a second referendum with Remain as an option, when they reported on Corbyn's letter last week. This was cynical and manipulative reporting, even by the Guardian's dismal recent standards.

McDonnell was simply stating that policy and the manifesto will be decided democratically, via the usual process. Having come this far, it's hard to imagine Labour not supporting Remain in a second referendum.

But, if they don't, so what? The second referendum is there for the taking, and if Remain run a competent campaign, it's quite likely they'll win. Isn't that enough, or is there another agenda here?

 

[Cav]

Corbyn said in a speech in Corby this morning that "Labour would commit to holding a public vote, to give voters the final say, with credible options for both sides, including the option to remain."

 

[Romulus]

Labour just wants it easy to back the winner hence the non commitment at this stage. Its run by a cynical leader which is dragging Labour down.

 

[ff1d1l]

Corbyn said in a speech in Corby this morning that "Labour would commit to holding a public vote, to give voters the final say, with credible options for both sides, including the option to remain."

"Would" if what?
Whatever happened to "have committed"?
Or "are committed"?.

 

[Seanm]

Also, did anyone see his hands? Might well have been crossing his fingers.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Also, did anyone see his hands? Might well have been crossing his fingers.

Can anybody confirm he didn’t just say ‘not’ the moment he left the stage?

 

[Seanm]

Lib Dems setting themselves up for another humiliating climb down here. It does look like Swinson isn’t very good at this.

https://twitter.com/libdempress/status/1163403973187055616?s=21