davidsrsb
pfm Member
It's the way the world works and endorsed by the UN Security Council veto vote system. You cannot stop this bully behaviour for only one of the players
Ukraine
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Mullardman
Moderately extreme...
Just thinking aloud really..
I'm still trying to get a firm understanding of Putin's real grip on power in Russia. He's clearly playing on the fact that Russians have felt beseiged (with some justification) ever since the revolution. Yet it seems there's no stomach for war amongst the general population in Russia.
Way back in the 80s when I was studying politics, I did a unit on Politics in Russia. I'd always rather naively seen Russia as a monolithic one party state with little real political debate , or factionalism. I was wrong of course, although they did tend to keep their domestics 'in the family'..as it were..
Of course Gorbachev, Perestroika, Glasnost,Yeltsin etc.. revealed the cracks... But I digress..
Russia, or more precisely Putin, has not made the transition to 'democracy' too well... He either kills his oposition, or locks them up via a compliant Judiciary. The big question in that regard, is whether he will eventually be succeeded by Hawks or Doves. I have no idea
But, on the current 'impasse'.. I don't know any more than anyone else what Putin intends. But, if he does invade, my money would be on him doing so from Belarus, so that he could continue to claim that Russia has not invaded Ukraine.
I'm still trying to get a firm understanding of Putin's real grip on power in Russia. He's clearly playing on the fact that Russians have felt beseiged (with some justification) ever since the revolution. Yet it seems there's no stomach for war amongst the general population in Russia.
Way back in the 80s when I was studying politics, I did a unit on Politics in Russia. I'd always rather naively seen Russia as a monolithic one party state with little real political debate , or factionalism. I was wrong of course, although they did tend to keep their domestics 'in the family'..as it were..
Of course Gorbachev, Perestroika, Glasnost,Yeltsin etc.. revealed the cracks... But I digress..
Russia, or more precisely Putin, has not made the transition to 'democracy' too well... He either kills his oposition, or locks them up via a compliant Judiciary. The big question in that regard, is whether he will eventually be succeeded by Hawks or Doves. I have no idea
But, on the current 'impasse'.. I don't know any more than anyone else what Putin intends. But, if he does invade, my money would be on him doing so from Belarus, so that he could continue to claim that Russia has not invaded Ukraine.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Countries taking over other countries' territory for themselves is not "how the world works."
Spraggons Den
pfm Member
Even with extreme prejudice I find it hard to pin Putin and his imminent taking of Ukraine on Johnson. Presuming Putin doesn't take the opportunity of having a mobilised army to advance into neighbouring NATO countries, then I see no opportunity for any of the western leaders to come out of the ensuing conflict well.
This doesn't equate to a demand that Europe be partitioned into influence blocks, with Russia being given control over former Warsaw Pact nations.
Heckyman
pfm Member
Some Russian units heading back to bases after excercise: https://tass.com/defense/1403345
Russia have said they've no intention of invading Ukraine.
Nero
Re: Tired
TASS. Hmmmm.....
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Presumably that means they're expecting to be invited in?
Barrymagrec
pfm Member
Bart
pfm Member
How about ‘none of the above’
Heckyman
pfm Member
It's the Russian Defense Ministry announcing the start of a pullback of some forces, we'll see soon enough.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
Putin has worked himself into an interesting position. On the one hand, he has used the pressure from his army to get the world to focus on the subjects that matter to him: the deep sorrow he feels about the way Russia gets so little respect these days, the unfair way in which Russia's former vassals were enticed to join other alliances, etc. He's got all the world leaders lining up to visit, listen to his views and offer sweeteners.
On the other hand, he is now a bit like the cat up the telegraph pole. Either he unleashes his military in the next few days, or he will have to call them back. Diplomats are trying to give him a plausible reason to do so without looking like a wimp in the eyes of his domestic audience (and President Xi, looking on with considerable interest). If he unleashes them, it has to bring a quick win: at a minimum territorial gains and consolidation of the pro-Russian militias in the Donbass; or, better, acceptance by Ukraine of Minsk 2; at best regime change in Kiev. But if he achieves either of those, what next, and at what economic cost in terms of sanctions, economic cost of occupation, etc.?
He's got to be thinking about his legacy: if he can neutralize Ukraine without a war, that might have to do for the time being. His best bet could be to pull back now and get one of his cronies to enter him for a Nobel Peace Prize. After all, they gave it to Begin and Obama: why not give it to a world leader who decided to pull back from the brink?
On the other hand, he is now a bit like the cat up the telegraph pole. Either he unleashes his military in the next few days, or he will have to call them back. Diplomats are trying to give him a plausible reason to do so without looking like a wimp in the eyes of his domestic audience (and President Xi, looking on with considerable interest). If he unleashes them, it has to bring a quick win: at a minimum territorial gains and consolidation of the pro-Russian militias in the Donbass; or, better, acceptance by Ukraine of Minsk 2; at best regime change in Kiev. But if he achieves either of those, what next, and at what economic cost in terms of sanctions, economic cost of occupation, etc.?
He's got to be thinking about his legacy: if he can neutralize Ukraine without a war, that might have to do for the time being. His best bet could be to pull back now and get one of his cronies to enter him for a Nobel Peace Prize. After all, they gave it to Begin and Obama: why not give it to a world leader who decided to pull back from the brink?
Bob McC
Living the life of Riley
One Whitehall mandarin has likened briefing Truss to the Father Ted “big cow - little cow” scene.
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