Ukraine

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Johnson must surely be Father Jack then.

 

[Barry123]

Putin has just, to all intents and purposes, trolled Ukraine, the EU and NATO.

That’s the Russians view on it. Another view could be that he’s bottled it. Either way if the pull back is really what’s happening, I for one am grateful. We should all be.

 

[Bob McC]

Probably been agreed that Ukraine won’t be joining NATO

 

[matthewr]

My interpretation is that for once Putin's brinkmanship went too far and he had to work out someway out of the situation without losing face. As ever with Putin most of what he does is about shoring up his power and image domestically and probably something to do with money.

Although at least we all got to laugh at Liz Truss and her latest bizarre Thatcher cosplay.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Probably been agreed that Ukraine won’t be joining NATO

^This. What else has Putin got out of this:

• Increase value of Gazprom from spike in gas costs - threat of conflict played a role.
• Shown NATO / World Russia can mobilise forces when required.
• A better understanding of how NATO / EU / Rest of World will react if it ever gets serious.
• Shown that Russia continues to:
  • Control the narrative with framing West & NATO as the aggressors, not Russia.
  • Have the upper hand - World & European leaders and senior diplomats went to Moscow, not vice versa.
• Shown that potential divisions in EU and NATO exist / shown how Germany is not as influential as it can be - where was it in all of this?
• Made at least one country's foreign secretary look out of their depth on the World stage.
• Still kept hold of Crimea.
• Likely to have bolstered popularity at home.
• Avoided further sanctions that would further cripple Russian domestic industry, especially defence.

 

[Spraggons Den]

Nice use of bullets (yours not the Russians).

 

[Seeker_UK]

Nice use of bullets (yours not the Russians).

I think neatness is important. I'm often told it's one of my (many) failings.

 

[DimitryZ]

This doesn't equate to a demand that Europe be partitioned into influence blocks, with Russia being given control over former Warsaw Pact nations.

Of course it does. Denying sovereign nations a choice of security options is exactly that. Plus, Russia currently occupies large pieces of three sovereign nations that it's attempting to deny sovereignty to.

 

[DimitryZ]

https://www.yachana.org/teaching/resources/interventions.html

Whataboutism, at best.

Interventions are bad enough, but actually taking over neighbors's land, in the 21st century is absolutely beyond the pale.

 

[DimitryZ]

Russia have said they've no intention of invading Ukraine.

Germany and USSR said the same about Poland.

 

[Hook]

Russia have said they've no intention of invading Ukraine.

Russia have said they've no intention of invading the rest of Ukraine.

 

[kensalriser]

Have Putin and his cronies just made a killing on financial markets? Use the Russian state's (ie the Russian people's) money to engineer the situation and then profit from it personally.

 

[matthewr]

This is one of them Nazbol Vortex vortex things where the left (Russian imperialism is not as bad as US imperialism) ends up agreeing with the right (Putin is good because Authoritarianism is good).

 

[alanbeeb]

^This. What else has Putin got out of this:

• Increase value of Gazprom from spike in gas costs - threat of conflict played a role.
• Shown NATO / World Russia can mobilise forces when required.
• A better understanding of how NATO / EU / Rest of World will react if it ever gets serious.
• Shown that Russia continues to:
  • Control the narrative with framing West & NATO as the aggressors, not Russia.
  • Have the upper hand - World & European leaders and senior diplomats went to Moscow, not vice versa.
• Shown that potential divisions in EU and NATO exist / shown how Germany is not as influential as it can be - where was it in all of this?
• Made at least one country's foreign secretary look out of their depth on the World stage.
• Still kept hold of Crimea.
• Likely to have bolstered popularity at home.
• Avoided further sanctions that would further cripple Russian domestic industry, especially defence.

On the other hand, assuming this has played out (which is a big assumption to make), it has brought about one of the outcomes that Putin wanted to end - the deployment of more NATO forces near Russian Borders.
And I'm not sure how this one works - "....framing West & NATO as the aggressors, not Russia." Amassing an army on the borders and telling sovereign nations they aren't allowed to make treaties shows who the aggressor is - who is fooled by this into thinking NATO are the aggressors?

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I suspect the framing that matters to Putin is the one the Russian people get to consume. I doubt that includes any suggestion of Russia as aggressor. I imagine it majors on something like portraying the West as overreacting to reasonable and unremarkable military exercises, which NATO seized on to spread disinformation and warmongering.

 

[Hook]

I suspect the framing that matters to Putin is the one the Russian people get to consume. I doubt that includes any suggestion of Russia as aggressor. I imagine it majors on something like portraying the West as overreacting to reasonable and unremarkable military exercises, which NATO seized on to spread disinformation and warmongering.

If Max was still around, he would have posted this as indisputable fact, along with a link to RT as proof.

 

[Seanm]

Might not be the case but I’ve heard this isn’t really such a big story in Russia itself.

I wonder might the threat of world war have been a bit over-egged in the U.K. by our war-friendly liberal press and our reckless, cynical political leaders.

 

[Barrymagrec]

Might not be the case but I’ve heard this isn’t really such a big story in Russia itself.

I wonder might the threat of world war have been a bit over-egged in the U.K. by our war-friendly liberal press and our reckless, cynical political leaders.

Surely not?.......

My Brother in Law who lives in Kharkiv is still there despite having been advised to leave by the embassy.

 

[Darmok]

I wonder might the threat of world war have been a bit over-egged in the U.K. by our war-friendly liberal press and our reckless, cynical political leaders.

Indeed.

A storm in a Furcup!

 

[Seeker_UK]

On the other hand, assuming this has played out (which is a big assumption to make), it has brought about one of the outcomes that Putin wanted to end - the deployment of more NATO forces near Russian Borders.

It may not be exactly as planned but Russia got more out of it than NATO.

NATO had already increased its forces as part of the Enhanced Forward Presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The fact this hasn't changed things is one negative outweighed by a load of positives. Maybe next time.

And I'm not sure how this one works - "....framing West & NATO as the aggressors, not Russia." Amassing an army on the borders and telling sovereign nations they aren't allowed to make treaties shows who the aggressor is - who is fooled by this into thinking NATO are the aggressors?

Keep telling a lie and eventually it becomes accepted as truth. All that has to happen is to sow that doubt in a few people across Europe and it grows; it's another strand to an attempt to sow doubt in long-established stable institutions like NATO (or the UK, or the EU) in the populations of their member states.