Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Putin's reliance on Prigozhin, and public humiliation from a bunch of (often) criminal mercenaries succeeding where regular forces failed, and then calling them out for lack of support ("where's my ammunition?") upset too many in the Russian Ministry of Defence, notably Shoigu. AIUI Prigozhin thinks he had made himself irreplaceable, and has made no secret he wanted rewarding big-time for what he's achieved in Ukraine, for example, being made Minister for Defence, but the career officers in charge there won't have that upstart as their boss.
Wagner PMC currently has 50000 troops. That's a big fighting force, even if most of them are cannon fodder straight of of prisons, and they can do a lot of damage on the way to Moscow, even if it is a final throw of the dice or 'forlorn hope'.
Longer term, this is probably bad for Putin's regime. Not only is it losing a critical, battle-winning component of its forces in Ukraine, Wagner is also in charge of security at many of Russia's global interests (particularly Africa). This will have impacts on Russian global aspirations and / or weaken Russian military forces if they are sent to replace Wagner units. Even worse, Wagner then holds those overseas interests 'hostage'.
Wagner PMC currently has 50000 troops. That's a big fighting force, even if most of them are cannon fodder straight of of prisons, and they can do a lot of damage on the way to Moscow, even if it is a final throw of the dice or 'forlorn hope'.
Longer term, this is probably bad for Putin's regime. Not only is it losing a critical, battle-winning component of its forces in Ukraine, Wagner is also in charge of security at many of Russia's global interests (particularly Africa). This will have impacts on Russian global aspirations and / or weaken Russian military forces if they are sent to replace Wagner units. Even worse, Wagner then holds those overseas interests 'hostage'.
