and also the silly talk about growth rates rather than total growth and if nil, such comparisons still completely irrelevant on the context of this thread. Russia is a small economy. Sorry.
Ukraine V
- Thread starter DimitryZ
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and also the silly talk about growth rates rather than total growth and if nil, such comparisons still completely irrelevant on the context of this thread. Russia is a small economy. Sorry.
notaclue
pfm Member
We still have our butter knives...
notaclue
pfm Member
Let me suggest that the IMF understand this sort of thing better than you. The UK economy will grow less than Russia. As widely reported by people who understood the IMF figures (e.g. https://news.sky.com/story/uk-econo...eloped-world-this-year-imf-forecasts-12799201).
My point was that this would not have been expected when the war started. The idea being that econmic sanctions would bring Russia to its knees. That certainly appears to have largely not come true. I used the UK as a comparison to show this.
Again to back up my point, I will use original sources. Biden said last March: "And doing it in unison with other nations that make up half of the global economy will be another crushing blow to the Russian economy that’s already suffering very badly from our sanctions." https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...tions-to-continue-to-hold-russia-accountable/
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
There you go again, spoiling a perfectly good rant with actual evidence
DimitryZ
pfm Member
It's truly remarkable how many in the West don't understand Russia and well, don't understand war.
Russia's government intake is down by a gigantic amount year over year, while wartime expenditures are through the roof.
Intake debit is due directly to sanctions. Wartime expenditures are due to... War. Those two REALLY don't equate, leading to giant budget deficits, forcing the government to sell their gold - which means Russia will soon either start stealing money from their citizens or reduce wartime outlay.
That's the only thing you need to know about that. If one wants numbers they are from Russia Ministry of Finance.
https://www.axios.com/2023/02/08/russias-budget-deficit-explodes-as-latest-sanctions-bite
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
As Russia has a sovereign currency, why can’t it just print money to pay for the war? That’s what most countries do. Sooner or later there’s has to be an accounting, but not yet, I think?
sean99
pfm Member
Yebbut the UK had Truss and Kwarteng bringing the UK to its knees. I say this only half jokingly. For much of 2022 the UK was behaving like a failed state so it's maybe not the best comparison.
the facts:
1. Blah blah blah forecasts. When have forecasts been wrong.
2. UK economy grew ~4% in 2022. Russian economy suffered significant negative growth.
3. During the period of war (2022 forward), Russia will have to have significant double digit growth in 2023 (and later) to surpass UK growth during this time period, the war period. They won’t in any way achieve that even if a recession in the UK.
4. As I said, UK economy, Germany economy, France economy, etc…and let alone US economy are all each significantly larger than Russia, which is ground zero for why blathering on about comparing growth rates is silly. Additionally, our context for these discussions are this war. If “the west” really wants to *fund* this war and win, they can easily do so. Russia plays in level 2.
Also, comparing 2021 to 2022, the swing from growth to recession in Russia was massive. Obviously, the sanctions had an effect. Do they matter? For reasons stated above, who cares. I simply would prefer my country and the rest of the world’s democracies to do business elsewhere.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Russia doesn't buy dual use goodies in rubles, it needs dollars, euros or yuans. Gold works, too. Russia is trying to keep the ruble in the "zone" for macroeconomic reasons so massive printing followed by massive ruble sale is not a real option.
But countries don't want to sell dual use stuff to Russia regardless, because if they do, they are hit with secondary sanctions from US/EU. Countries that don't trade much with the West - Iran, NK - don't care much, but the rest of the world cares very much. China can't survive without western demand for their products.
Russia can get some of the stuff through black market intermediaries, but it's a lot more expensive, slow and dangerous for the helpers.
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DonQuixote99
pfm Member
You can print money, but you can't eat it, and you can't print tanks and missiles. War is where physical economic capacity matters.
notaclue
pfm Member
This is irrelevant to my point. I made one simple point based on IMF figures which was widely reported by the media, including the FT (who said "Even Russia’s economy is now likely to outpace the UK’s, growing 1 per cent this year, according to the IMF forecasts."). I made no wider claims about the Russian economy compared to other economies.
To say this is "silly" means you effectively think the IMF and the world's media are silly. It may be that they are all being collectively silly or it may be that it is you who is being silly. I'll leave you to answer that one.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
So this is a good time to ask your prescription for ending the fighting, at least for a while.
Mine is simple: give Ukraine enough conventional weapons to drive Russian military to Russian legal borders (1991), but not further. This in no way threatens actual RF territorial integrity and keeps risks of further escalation to a minimum.
What is yours? Should we increase western aid to Ukraine, keep it the same or reduce it? Should we pressure Ukraine to ceede their territory for Russian promises to not try to take more? Should we need Russian ultimatum to get NATO out of Eastern Europe entirely?
anubisgrau
pfm Member
nice to see you in a better mood, for a change.
MUTTY1
Waste of bandwidth
The accounting will come much sooner than usual because Russia has stuck herself on a limb and can’t hide behind anything: just as Truss did with our economy. If you do something extreme you get examined very closely. Sensible voices have always said sanctions aren’t a quick fix but they are starting to bite and they will accelerate and **** up a generation of Russians because of hubris at the top.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Don't drop RP(tm) into the thread and I will be in a great mood.
No problem with IMF forecasts. since when is the FT “the world’s media”. glad I could add the correct perspective to your and the FT’s comparison. End?
notaclue
pfm Member
I am not really knowledgeable enough on the subject to comment with any great insight.
Though I do think officially accepting Crimea is now part of Russia might be a sensible first step for a peace deal. It's a geographical oddity. The Russians seem very, very unlikely to ever leave it peacefully. But perhaps this has already been offered? I don't know. If Ukraine has not offered this, I would pressurise them to. It is Ukrainian cities being bombed, not Russian. The unfortunate reality is that the Ukrainians need peace more, even if this is not fair.
Both sides still appear to want to fight so I don't see a solution soon. I think a lot will depend on the Russian spring offensive. If effective, Ukraine may have to accept a peace deal. If ineffective, the war could drag on for years.