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Ukraine IV

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To raise a sub-topic: I've been pondering Putin's comments about "consequences" of contries continuning to send arms to help Ukraine. His wording and history make me guess he has in mind some 'ops' like ones where people came to the UK to "admire the cathederals". When by an odd coincidence such trips seem to associate with nerve gas, or polonium, or other everyday goods on sale in Aldi/Lidl appearing in strange places.

Given this I do hope the Home Office, etc, can cut through their usual incompetence and check people who come out as refugees whilst actually being able to let in real refugees and help them - i.e. not muddle their consideration or send them off to Rwanda!!

Hopefully, chaps in certain places in the UK, etc, will have already started on trying to deal with these curious issues.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
Given this I do hope the Home Office, etc, can cut through their usual incompetence and check people who come out as refugees whilst actually being able to let in real refugees and help them - i.e. not muddle their consideration or send them off to Rwanda!!

Hopefully, chaps in certain places in the UK, etc, will have already started on trying to deal with these curious issues.
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Having to check that families fleeing war in Ukraine aren't actually evil Russian agents loaded up with novichok was the Home Office's first excuse for not allowing unconditional entry.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...ng-russian-invasion-sajid-javid-says-12571870
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...le-Russian-spies-pose-fleeing-Ukrainians.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-russia-ukraine-refugees-b2039561.html

They might have had a point if Russian agents genuinely loaded up with novichok hadn't already proven they have easy access to the UK.
 
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That's the dilemma. Putin's vague "consquences" can cause difficulties either way. So needs our government 'chaps' to try and extract their digital and manage to do a decent job. Sadly, that's not a description of much of the behaviour of the HO, or some other parts of UK Gov in recent years. Partly for their 'culture' reasons. Partly due to mindless cuts in staff and facilities to "save money". (sigh)
 
anubisgrau said:
A rather terrific analysis dated 3 Feb 2022 from a high ranked former Russian military colonel, now a journalist. He predicted lots of things correctly, confronting with the views of Putin political elites.

Not all of the Russians were completely mindless and drunk.
https://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
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That is a really insightful article anubisgrau. The editor has a serious pedigree in the area too by the looks of it:

Biography of the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok-military observer of the newspaper.Ru", retired Colonel.

Graduated from the Minsk higher engineering anti-aircraft missile school (1976), Military command Academy of air defense (1986).
Commander of the s-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior officer Of the General staff of the air defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the main operational Department of the General staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General staff of the Russian Armed forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-industrial courier newspaper (2010-2015).

(Am curious btw if the Russian control of the press is as tight as we think, how such an article ever made it into print)

Anyways, back on topic..the conclusions are indeed damning:

Conclusion:
In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds.

And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

The Colonels's conclusion above makes me think that the link posted upthread by the US journalist Beau (of the fifth) suggesting that the main Intelligence service in Russia was riddled with corruption may not be so far off the mark.
 
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^^^^^^^’suggestion that the main Intelligence service in Russia was riddled with corruption may not be so far off the mark.’

The book Putin’s People confirms that the intelligence services are completely corrupt, or at least once the Soviet Union collapsed.
 
Yes. Be a tad ironic - if not full blown poetic justice - that Putin's own FSB falling to the temptations of become every bit as self-serving as their boss ultimately leads to his early demise.

Let's hope so :)
 
-alan- said:
The Colonels's conclusion above makes me think that the link posted upthread by the US journalist Beau (of the fifth) suggesting that the main Intelligence service in Russia was riddled with corruption may not be so far off the mark.
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Can't comment on the specifics. But the reality is that no-one wanted to be the one to tell Al Capone about any failings of their 'system'. Fear of falling baseball bats or lead poisoning. Only those terrified of The Prince survive - by buck-passing, keeping shtum, etc. It's the basic weakness of extreme dictatorships. Those who don't do this either 'disappear' or are made an 'example' of 'disloyalty'. However even when The Prince knows this, they also know that they can't survive getting off the tiger they ride.
 
-alan- said:
Yes. Be a tad ironic - if not full blown poetic justice - that Putin's own FSB falling to the temptations of become every bit as self-serving as their boss ultimately leads to his early demise.

Let's hope so :)
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Long before the collapse of the USSR the KGB, etc, ceased being ideology-based and became a club for mutual protection and power. Hence Putin's success via these pathways and its clubs.
 
anubisgrau said:
A rather terrific analysis dated 3 Feb 2022 from a high ranked former Russian military colonel, now a journalist. He predicted lots of things correctly, confronting with the views of Putin political elites.

Not all of the Russians were completely mindless and drunk.

Use a google translate

https://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

"Some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kyiv regime”.

Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.

It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine, in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds, would turn into Novorossia. We have already drawn maps, estimated the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.

But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.

In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022, following the model and likeness of 1939, will not succeed in any way. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more true than ever: “It is clear that we will now have not an easy battle, but a hard battle.”"
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I used to read this paper, especially its military supplement. But currently it's strictly a government mouthpiece, an early article you cited notwithstanding. Here is their front page story on "localized damage to Moskva."

https://www.ng.ru/armies/2022-04-14/1_8418_moscow.html
 
gints said:
Cannot open that ng.ru web page, something about wrong certificate.
On a lighter note, old Sojuzmultfilm animation from 1973 made it's way into news. Fake or not, do not know, news was that it is banned from official YouTube channel, because of letter Z. Because it was a mark used on fascist destroyer ships. Submarine where childrens are, called Neptun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_destroyer_Z29
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Jim Audiomisc said:
To raise a sub-topic: I've been pondering Putin's comments about "consequences" of contries continuning to send arms to help Ukraine. His wording and history make me guess he has in mind some 'ops' like ones where people came to the UK to "admire the cathederals". When by an odd coincidence such trips seem to associate with nerve gas, or polonium, or other everyday goods on sale in Aldi/Lidl appearing in strange places.

Given this I do hope the Home Office, etc, can cut through their usual incompetence and check people who come out as refugees whilst actually being able to let in real refugees and help them - i.e. not muddle their consideration or send them off to Rwanda!!

Hopefully, chaps in certain places in the UK, etc, will have already started on trying to deal with these curious issues.
Click to expand...

More likely to use proxies, social media poo stirring and hacking, all deniable but a real pain.
 
The fleet has moved to 80 miles from coast/ anti ship missiles sent from UK/ nothing allowed in or out of the Black Sea. Hopefully Odessa (and Moldavia) safer.
 
TheDecameron said:
“Forced to leave the battlefield”- for the sea bed.
Never having experienced a similar event in its 45 year history, by frightful coincidence it occurs while in a war zone within range of enemy land based anti ship missiles.
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Yes, these careless sailors and their discarded cigarettes. Tsk tsk.
 
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