Ukraine III

[sean99]

Here is the post.
What is the problem?

“the U.K.’s No. 1 option is for the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin.”

I think this is the west's no 1 option. That doesn't mean it's a good option as there will be terrible suffering in Ukraine (caused by Russia). However it's the only option.
Why ? Because Putin will not negotiate in good faith: he will demand the impossible. Plus any commitments he makes are worth about as much as commitments made by Donald Trump.

In no way does this make NATO or "the west" the bad guys here.

 

[gints]

Defences on the Eastern borders of Ukraine could be turned into bases to launch missiles to Moscow. Is there a diplomat anywhere today who could make that acceptable to Russia?
This war is happening because no one has found the solution to this conundrum - maybe there isn’t one, the situation is just fundamentally flawed. The map, with its borders, doesn’t make sense, is essentially unstable, in the real world.

If future rockets will get faster and longer range, should border be moved again a bit further? And then again, and again?

 

[-alan-]

Moscow could be a good neighbor that acts decently and no one would want to launch missiles at them? Anyone ever think of that? And oh by the way they have thousands of nuclear warheads, so it would be MAD deluxe. This Ukraine threatens Russia bit would be total nonsense except Russia has made extraordinary efforts to be someone Ukraine will hate for a lifetime or more. They will have to live with that.

That's for sure. What was it Nelson Mandela used to say - one year's war takes at least 10 years to forget ?

I think he's at least an order of magnitude out. Never mind ''The Troubles' of relatively recent times in the North, the Irish people and their diaspora still have a somewhat jaundiced view of Britain arising from what happened in the famine era here. The three or four million plus Ukrainians who have been driven out of their country and succeeding generations aren't likely to forget Putin's incursion anytime in the next four or five generations either.

 

[kensalriser]

You think so? NATO’s Article 1 states how it should respond to a dispute, but then we see how it handled 9/11 and the Falkland’s invasion, which to me isn’t coherent. I guess there are factions within the NATO arguing about what its response should be and the conservatives are winning for now. There will be members arguing for intervention, negotiation and surrender (NATO articles refer to UN articles, and Russia is a significant member of the UN). So I guess that NATO is being tested as never before (well maybe the Cuban missile crisis was close but that seems like a chess match compared to the street fight in Ukraine). A Ukrainian MP on Question Time, last week, mentioned an anti Putin coalition of nations which could mean there are already serious divisions within NATO.

How was NATO’s response relevant to 9/11 and the Falklands?

 

[ks.234]

“the U.K.’s No. 1 option is for the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin.”

Yes

I think this is the west's no 1 option. That doesn't mean it's a good option as there will be terrible suffering in Ukraine (caused by Russia).

Agreed

However it's the only option.

Maybe. All out diplomatic pressure is an additional option, which may be happening.

Why ? Because Putin will not negotiate in good faith: he will demand the impossible. Plus any commitments he makes are worth about as much as commitments made by Donald Trump.

Agreed

In no way does this make NATO or "the west" the bad guys here.

Agreed.

Again, what’s the problem?

 

[mandryka]

Moscow could be a good neighbor that acts decently and no one would want to launch missiles at them? .

That's the problem. Clearly the Russians are going to do everything they can to avoid being under a non-Russian controlled sword of Damocles. Hence the war.

If future rockets will get faster and longer range, should border be moved again a bit further? And then again, and again?

Good reason for making sure that they don't get faster, that they don't get a longer range. If they do, the Russian's will, of course, need to deal with the new threat, as you rightly suggest.

 

[DonQuixote99]

That's the problem. Clearly the Russians are going to do everything they can to avoid being under a non-Russian controlled sword of Damocles. Hence the war.




Good reason for making sure that they don't get faster, that they don't get a longer range. If they do, the Russian's will, of course, need to deal with the new threat, as you rightly suggest.

Everyone in the world is threatened by missiles. If any threat is intolerable, Russia will have to conquer the world. Or, work at getting along in a world that stifles aggressors, instead of being one. That would ease the threat a lot.

 

[mandryka]

This all started with Hook's thought that

They also need to know that another invasion won't happen again. Crimea wasn't the end. Donbas wasn't the end. From a Ukrainian perspective, the current war has to be the end. No more pause and repeat. Full stop. Ukrainians need fortified borders and ongoing military support.

I responded because I don't see how it can be realistically achieved, it would take a very great diplomat to sell it to the Russians, and I don't see one. America and Europe could try to impose it on the Russians, but that doesn't sound like a very stable solution to me.

Imagine that Russia really loses this war, and they leave Ukraine with their tail between their legs, humiliated. Then possibly America and the EU would have a brief opportunity to fortify borders, to prevent a second invasion. They'd have to act damn quick, because I am sure that, in the event, Russia would learn from its mistakes and invade again as soon as possible.

But I doubt the Russians would let it happen -- it would be a recipe for escalation.

 

[gints]

Good reason for making sure that they don't get faster, that they don't get a longer range. If they do, the Russian's will, of course, need to deal with the new threat, as you rightly suggest.

Or move Moscow behind Urals. Everyone will feel safer.
Imagine how western countries should feel about Kaliningrad.

 

[DonQuixote99]

That's the problem. Clearly the Russians are going to do everything they can to avoid being under a non-Russian controlled sword of Damocles. Hence the war.

Come again? I said Russia won't have people wanting to attack them if they act decent, and you say "That's the problem?"

Sheesh, I may have to agree with you.

 

[notaclue]

Assuming more or less accurate, it's a military disaster for the Russians. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-...killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html

"WASHINGTON – NATO estimates that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured, captured or gone missing during the first month of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, an alliance official confirmed to NBC News. Of those, between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian troops have died, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to share NATO’s latest intelligence assessment of the ongoing war."

That has got to increase the chances of Putin getting overthrown. But will also increase the chances that a desperate Putin will go chemical/biological/nuclear to try and win.

 

[Chefren]

For years most NATO countries have not put up their 2% of spending expecting the Yanks to do it all. I think it's a very big ask to expect that to continue and now Europe needs to shoulder a proper share and beef up it's military. Putins plan will be to niggle away and niggle away at the small countries. Would you send your children to defend Estonia when it isn't contributing as agreed on joing NATO?.

Estonia has been spending more 2% of its GDP on it's military every year since 2015: https://tradingeconomics.com/estonia/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

In fact all three Baltic states, Poland and Romania all spent over 2% in 2020: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=B8&most_recent_value_desc=true

 

[TheDecameron]

Assuming more or less accurate, it's a military disaster for the Russians. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-...killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html

"WASHINGTON – NATO estimates that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured, captured or gone missing during the first month of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, an alliance official confirmed to NBC News. Of those, between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian troops have died, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to share NATO’s latest intelligence assessment of the ongoing war."

That has got to increase the chances of Putin getting overthrown. But will also increase the chances that a desperate Putin will go chemical/biological/nuclear to try and win.

Might also explain why Shoigu is having palpitations.

 

[eternumviti]

Might also explain why Shoigu is having palpitations.

Do you think he might possibly have gone the way of that other shit, Beria.

 

[Barrymagrec]

Do you think he might possibly have gone the way of that other shit, Beria.

I assume you mean Lavrentiy Beria. His brother Yogi was much more popular though.

 

[MikeMA]

Assuming more or less accurate, it's a military disaster for the Russians. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/up-...killed-wounded-captured-or-mia-nato-says.html

"WASHINGTON – NATO estimates that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured, captured or gone missing during the first month of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, an alliance official confirmed to NBC News. Of those, between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian troops have died, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to share NATO’s latest intelligence assessment of the ongoing war."

That has got to increase the chances of Putin getting overthrown. But will also increase the chances that a desperate Putin will go chemical/biological/nuclear to try and win.

Another small but telling detail: according to reports on ITV News at Ten tonight, recently captured Russian military kit includes first aid packs issued in 1970, several decades before the Russian troops using them were born.

 

[Hook]

I assume you mean Lavrentiy Beria. His brother Yogi was much more popular though.

Yogi was infinitely more quotable.

 

[TheDecameron]

I assume you mean Lavrentiy Beria. His brother Yogi was much more popular though.

Barry, have you been in close contact with Mike Reed recently?

Yogi was infinitely more quotable.

Yogi only took sandwiches.

 

[ks.234]

Actually, conversion of unfounded speculation into a "topic of rational discussion," is one of the more common propaganda methods.

Your attemp to characterise any discussion that does not fit your inability to hear any criticism of any part of the history of the US as propaganda is telling.

Here, you have successfully converted baseless musings into a discussion of western culpability for ongoing slaughter.

Yet again you make things up. You have failed to evidence your accusations previously, perhaps you can show me where I have talked about Western culpability for mass slaughter

This appears to be your main interest here.

Again, no.

 

[gustav_errata]

One gets tired of reading page after page of the same person trying to furiously row the boat back up a succession of waterfalls.