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The forthcoming demise of the Conservative minority government, May 2017-?

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Philim said:
Many factors have contributed to this position.
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One has primacy. The calculation made by a certain Conservative Prime Minister in hock to his own right wing, that a referendum would see both them and Ukip off. Bullingdon on poker put us where we are now. The same party now want to put an even higher stakes Bullingdon in control. You can work out what will happen.
 
Well yes, but remember they don't have a majority. What if the DUP deal breaks down?

Events, dear boy.
 
Philim said:
Many factors have contributed to this position.
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One has primacy. The calculation made by a certain Conservative Prime Minister in hock to his own right wing, that a referendum would see both them and Ukip off. Bullingdon poker put us where we are now. The same party now want to put an even higher stakes Bullingdon in control. You can work out what will happen.
 
Philim said:
This isn't a Tory brexit. It is a brexit voted for by the country not a party.
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It is a Brexit proposed by a Tory government so divided amogst itelf it was losing MPs and possibly seats to a pressure group funded by billionaire investment bankers, tax exiles and millionaire trough-feeders and fronted by the biggest spiv since Arthur Daley. Cameron caved. No only did he cave, he preseided over the most f***ing stupid binary question about the most complex aspect of UK life and did so with no checks, balances, thresholds or controls. The “campaigns” for leave blatantly lied and stirred up hate and fear in some of the more disadvantaged and disenfranchised areas. It was 100% a Tory clusterf*** and as a Tory voter *you* own it, not just your beyond crap party. You enabled this mess!

PS As someone who has worked at a fairly high level in corporate business, run my own business etc I really struggle to grasp just how grossly incompetent these morons are. A binary referendum with no safety threshold e.g. 60+%? No escape clause if it looked economically damaging to the country? No control of educational content/promotional claims? Seriously? What a bunch of utter idiots. I’d sack anyone that stupid in a team working for me in minutes! They’d be out the door.
 
notaclue said:
We'd need to run that one past the DUP. ;)
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If the DUP ever prefer a Corbyn or Corbynist Labour government to a Tory government we really won’t be in Kansas any more.

Major and Cameron 1 both went the full 5 years.

I think the OP could be in for a long wait.
 
Regarding the original question, I suspect the Tories will stagger on, propped up by the DUP, for the full term.

They will fight the 2022 election with a new leader. They're caught between a rock and a hard place on Brexit: go "soft" and risk losing voters to UKIP; or take it "hard" and weaken the economy (and, presumably losing votes as a consequence). Still, I don't rule out the possibility of another Tory victory in 2022.

Of course, a Labour government pursuing the moderate left of centre policies set out by Corbyn will be better for the country, and dramatically better for 90% of its citizens.
 
droodzilla said:
Regarding the original question, I suspect the Tories will stagger on, propped up by the DUP, for the full term.

They will fight the 2022 election with a new leader. They're caught between a rock and a hard place on Brexit: go "soft" and risk losing voters to UKIP; or take it "hard" and weaken the economy (and, presumably losing votes as a consequence). Still, I don't rule out the possibility of another Tory victory in 2022.

Of course, a Labour government pursuing the moderate left of centre policies set out by Corbyn will be better for the country, and dramatically better for 90% of its citizens.
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My fear is the Tories go before the mess they have made really hits home to the majority in lost jobs, falling income, rising prices, declining services etc etc. This is all happening already, but the worst of it will be a delayed reaction as businesses hang on for dear life before failing and EU-feeding global corporates (motor industry etc) see what backhanders and bribes they can get before giving up and relocating in Poland or wherever. If Labour get in before this trajectory is clear it is not beyond possibility that they may catch the worst of it and take some blame for what is clearly 100% a Tory mess, especially given they have a lying far-right press to contend with.
 
Tony L said:
My fear is the Tories go before the mess they have made really hits home to the majority in lost jobs, falling income, rising prices, declining services etc etc. This is all happening already, but the worst of it will be a delayed reaction as businesses hang on for dear life before failing and EU-feeding global corporates (motor industry etc) see what backhanders and bribes they can get before giving up and relocating in Poland or wherever. If Labour get in before this trajectory is clear it is not beyond possibility that they may catch the worst of it and take some blame for what is clearly 100% a Tory mess, especially given they have a lying far-right press to contend with.
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I agree. It's a bitter irony that Labour's offer - probably a once in several decades opportunity to rebablance the social, economic and political order in favour of the vast majority - might be sabotaged by a sh*t Brexit on top of all the other damage the Tories have done.

In more optimistic moments I see the Brexit factor as a constraint rather than a complete obstacle to Labour's plans. There's still a lot Labour could do to redress the balance in favour of the many, even with a weakened post-Brexit economy. And, let's face it, it's not as if the Tories are about to start caring about the interests of ordinary folk.
 
Optimistic take: given the unelectability of the Tories, a serious collapse will open up space for some genuinely radical reforms.
 
Philim said:
One thing I would stake my entire wealth on though is that JC and the marxists (sound like a band) will devastate this country.
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I've had a word with Jezza and told him about you. He laughed and said your pockets aren't deep enough to hide money from him.

Jezza looks forward to hearing you squeal and he's pleased you've already started.

Jack
 
Tony L said:
My fear is the Tories go before the mess they have made really hits home to the majority in lost jobs, falling income, rising prices, declining services etc etc. This is all happening already, but the worst of it will be a delayed reaction as businesses hang on for dear life before failing and EU-feeding global corporates (motor industry etc) see what backhanders and bribes they can get before giving up and relocating in Poland or wherever. If Labour get in before this trajectory is clear it is not beyond possibility that they may catch the worst of it and take some blame for what is clearly 100% a Tory mess, especially given they have a lying far-right press to contend with.
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I think that's a very fair point. The Tories really do need to own this one and be seen to be leading us all the way to the very bottom. The sad thing of course is that this means that trying to reverse this isn't politically desirable. The damage is already done.

Any campaign by an opposition needs to be run on the basis of informing the public as to just how long it will take to turn this particular ship around, the lies and the deceit that went into her and just how much suffering there will be in the medium term. Is there a possibility that the deregulation of media sources will usher in a new age of political honesty as the younger voters grow tired of being openly lies to?
 
Philim said:
This isn't a Tory brexit. It is a brexit voted for by the country not a party. There is only brexit not hard or soft. We are in or out.
I think brexit would cause harm in the 1-5 years but longer term there is a chance it could be beneficial for the country but I wasn't comfortable in the end going into the unknown which is why I voted remain.

One thing I would stake my entire wealth on though is that JC and the marxists (sound like a band) will devastate this country. I don't want either party in power if I'm honest in their current guise but as both are going to deliver brexit I think the Tories will do less damage. Brexit is one thing. Brexit plus Marxism would be Armageddon.
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You won't be surprised if I disagree with your rather childish and deeply DM influenced analysis.

However, I really do wish you'd try to be at least superficially mature about Labour. They are not a Marxist party, they are a Democratic Socialist party and even that is stretching a point, as Corbyn's declared policies are neither extreme, or without recent precedent in the UK.

Or would you like me to constantly describe the Tories as Nazis, Fascists, etc.. , rather than just a bunch of rather sad and extremely incompetent thieves and reactionaries?

Mull
 
ff1d1l said:
If it walks like a tory brexit, quacks like a tory brexit, then it probably...

Tory idea to have a referendum.
Tories in government when held.
Tories predominantly espousing leave.
Tories running off, resigning, hiding and generally sh1tting themselves when the result comes in.
Tories handling negotiations with skill and aplomb, as they have demonstrated across the board to date.

Whoops, forgot tories holding an election on the platform of validation of their hard brexit stance, losing their mandate and their majority, so in with the terrorists...does that make it a terrorist brexit? If you like, but I'm good with it being a TORY BREXIT.
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Tories were not predominantly espousing leave, David Cameron and George Osborne, among other high profile Tories like John Major, were pro the EU. DC's Facebook page got a load of grief telling him how wrong he was on every post on there advocating staying in the EU. Quite rightly IMHO. The sooner Brexit happens the better.
 
Rcook said:
Tories were not predominantly espousing leave, David Cameron and George Osborne, among other high profile Tories like John Major, were pro the EU. DC's Facebook page got a load of grief telling him how wrong he was on every post on there advocating staying in the EU. Quite rightly IMHO. The sooner Brexit happens the better.
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Pedant-tastic.

The majority of Tory *voters* wanted to Leave.

Of the (minority of) MPs who wanted to Leave, the vast majority were Tories.

However you cut it, Cameron was held to ransom by UKIP and a minority of Brexit ultras in his own party. He was a weak leader who couldn't stand up to them. Now the rest of the UK (not Cameron, Johnson and their like) will pay the price for his weakness and this TORY Brexit.
 
Rcook said:
DC's Facebook page got a load of grief telling him how wrong he was on every post on there advocating staying in the EU. Quite rightly IMHO. The sooner Brexit happens the better.
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Yes we need a crashed economy and isolation, Donald will help us.
 
Tony L said:
My fear is the Tories go before the mess they have made really hits home to the majority in lost jobs, falling income, rising prices, declining services etc etc.
<snip>
If Labour get in before this trajectory is clear it is not beyond possibility that they may catch the worst of it and take some blame for what is clearly 100% a Tory mess, especially given they have a lying far-right press to contend with.
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I think that'll happen anyway Tony. Basically, those people who are still committed to Brexit will not be persuaded otherwise. And when it goes horribly wrong, they'll blame the Remainiac Traitors for torpedoing Brexit out of spite.
 
droodzilla said:
Pedant-tastic.

The majority of Tory *voters* wanted to Leave.

Of the (minority of) MPs who wanted to Leave, the vast majority were Tories.

However you cut it, Cameron was held to ransom by UKIP and a minority of Brexit ultras in his own party. He was a weak leader who couldn't stand up to them. Now the rest of the UK (not Cameron, Johnson and their like) will pay the price for his weakness and this TORY Brexit.
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That's right, sometimes the causes of major events are shabby little manoeuvres by shabby little individuals. It's no more complicated than that. One things certain though- the damage consequent to Brexit will be profound and long lasting and they know it. Some of the more swivel eyed opportunists in their ranks will however, already be working out how to enrich themselves from it.
 
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