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Stock Market 2021

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davidsrsb said:
The new planes aren't that much more efficient. The low hanging fruit of high bypass engines and twin engines across water happened long ago.

With billions, not millions of people seeking higher ground or habitable climate, space for relocating airports will be at a premium.
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David, do you not want to be able to fly home from KL ? :)
 
wacko said:
David, do you not want to be able to fly home from KL ? :)
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Something I have not done for three years now for various reasons. My parents are my only reason to go back now.
Malaysia is a good example of built in air flight demand, the only way to get to East Malaysia is by air and at some point early next year tens of thousands of people from Sarawak will be flying back just to vote in a state election.
 
In North American exchanges, be sure to collateralize exchange-traded shares. Oh, and low-yield ISOs? In unsecured market segments, never cover them. I'm likely giving away a trade secret, but as I'm among friends I need to say that the smart investor this season will also be sure to not diversify mortgage-backed stocks. Note: this is not a typo — do not diversify mortgage-backed stocks!

Joe
 
Mike Reed said:
Simple questions/comments; quite apart from the impending 'perfect (but not in the sense of 'ideal') storm', what are aquatic soothsayers predicting, considering:

Interest rates will, surely, HAVE to rise as rising inflation is unlikely to be a blip for a year, if ever.
Stock markets don't like higher interest rates, understandably, so will this prompt a correction (at least)?
After rapidly rising property prices which may now plateau since the ending of the S/D holiday, will the paucity of stock prevent a slump in this asset class?
Increased energy, food and other costs will, i.m.o., slow consumption over a wide purchasing area, with negative consequential effects on business. Add the logistical situation and the treasury deficit to the mix, and sunny uplands seem to be a figment of Mystic Meg's imagination.

Maybe I'm being a little pessimistic here, heading into winter with both medical and economic cumulous clouds gathering; maybe I read too much, but what is the general feeling here of the near/medium term future domestically? Globally doesn't look too chipper either !
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IR rises will be token I feel. They should be wound back to pre ‘emergency’ levels of around 5% but I can’t see that, too much debt everywhere. Maybe 1 or 2%, still ridiculously low. If people / companies can’t survive that level of base rate, they shouldn’t be lent money in the first place IMHO.

I had an email yesterday from a place I buy outdoor / camping stuff from, giving notice that prices will rise from 1 January across the board. Looks like between 10 and 35%. This is going to happen everywhere. I’ve just ordered a load of wine, reckon prices will increase and don’t want to be short for Christmas! My local farm shop rear their own turkeys so no shortage but said their biggest challenge will be getting them plucked. Nobody wants the work apparently.

There could well be short term market volatility, but companies will increase prices with inflation and maintain profits so longer term decent equities are better than cash (although you need to keep enough to avoid being a forced seller IMHO). Trouble with selling out is that your timing needs to be right twice, versus the longer term Terry Smith strategy of buy good companies, don’t overpay, do nothing.
 
I've noticed a slight change in my building contractor clients. They don't seem to be paying as fast as they were 6 months ago...the hangover may be starting...

Was walking past a large Starbucks Coffee in central Belfast at 5:30pm Yesterday. It wasn't one in the main tourist area but instead one placed to pick up office workers near the train station etc. The lights were on, there were two staff members leaning against the counter looking out as the (semi deserted street) hoping someone would walk in - the place was completely EMPTY inside...at 5:30pm on a weekday...What's London like?
 
Ponty said:
My local farm shop rear their own turkeys so no shortage but said their biggest challenge will be getting them plucked.
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I'm sure there there're plenty of pheasant pluckers around to talk turkey !

Have just exchanged on my BTL flat. After 8 + years, I didn't really want to lose a nice income stream but the hassles of Covid, tenants (nice but still a hassle) and a feeling of prob. the right time at my age and declining capability, top of the market etc. Why do I want to sweat it out just to add to my inheritance?. Time to move on and concentrate on the other one, which'll go next year.
 
Mike Reed said:
Have just exchanged on my BTL flat. After 8 + years, I didn't really want to lose a nice income stream but the hassles of Covid, tenants (nice but still a hassle) and a feeling of prob. the right time at my age and declining capability, top of the market etc. Why do I want to sweat it out just to add to my inheritance?. Time to move on and concentrate on the other one, which'll go next year.
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Congrats, good decision. There is always something to sort out. Once you reach a certain point I guess you just want zero hassle in your life. I’m not there yet but if govts continue to make being a landlord a hostile environment when you are providing a service people want, I’ll review it.
 
“Inflation expectations mixed with global growth concerns have made many investors nervous that the business and the consumer will be much weaker in the second half of 2022. Safe-haven flows are starting to come gold’s way,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA, said in a note.

Could be the start of a big step up for gold if the consensus on this thread is correct!
 
robs said:
“Inflation expectations mixed with global growth concerns have made many investors nervous that the business and the consumer will be much weaker in the second half of 2022. Safe-haven flows are starting to come gold’s way,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA, said in a note.

Could be the start of a big step up for gold if the consensus on this thread is correct!
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To me it was just a matter of waiting....let's see. GDX tends to front run stuff.
 
Joe P said:
The smart trader nowadays will plan to divest from exchange-traded commodities. And, importantly, in subordinate-rated markets be sure to leverage revolving-loan instruments. I cannot state this strongly enough: In the derivatives market, never amortize high-yield capital adequacy requirements.
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Joe P said:
In North American exchanges, be sure to collateralize exchange-traded shares. Oh, and low-yield ISOs? In unsecured market segments, never cover them. I'm likely giving away a trade secret, but as I'm among friends I need to say that the smart investor this season will also be sure to not diversify mortgage-backed stocks. Note: this is not a typo — do not diversify mortgage-backed stocks!
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(In the USA; maybe Canada?) Financial industry are full of B.S. (financial advisors, PhD finance/quant professors, PhD analysts, traders, mutual funds managers, etc.).

Invest in great companies (via income statement/balance sheet/cash flow/earnings call/moat/etc.) and give them time!
 
Erik,

ErikL said:
(In the USA; maybe Canada?) Financial industry are full of B.S. (financial advisors, PhD finance/quant professors, PhD analysts, traders, mutual funds managers, etc.).
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Beats me. I was just trying the financial advice generator. It takes about three clicks to generate enough BS for a post that sounds vaguely plausible.

https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

Like the thing says, ‘The wise trader these days will be sure to amortize arbitrage-free capital structures.’

Joe
 
Joe P said:
Erik,



Beats me. I was just trying the financial advice generator. It takes about three clicks to generate enough BS for a post that sounds vaguely plausible.


https://phrasegenerator.com/finance

Like the thing says, ‘The wise trader these days will be sure to amortize arbitrage-free capital structures.’

Joe
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Again my friend,

IMO "Invest in great companies (via income statement/balance sheet/cash flow/earnings call/moat/etc.) and give them time!"

Hope you're well!
 
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Hi, Erik.

This advice is from me, not the phrase generator: "Buy before greed, sell before panic."

Joe
 
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