Stock Market 2021

[andyoz]

This guys style might grate on some but he actually knows the car world very well:

TSLA share price may continue to climb but what's it really built on? It is a cult...

He's done follow up videos too.

Let's wait for the Cyber truck later this year (??!). If any other car manufacturer (or any company actually) made this many bullshit claims they wouldn't last a year.

 

[andyoz]

Skip to 01:45 in this video...those look like hard facts to me?

I'm really struggling to see where the windfall is with Tesla in terms of actual car manufacturing? 2021 is when the pressure from other manufacturers really ramps up.

I followed a Honda E the other day and thought..I could see my wife driving the next generation of that. Never felt that about any Tesla.

 

[matt j]

He's probably too much of an egotistical prick to do it, but I reckon they'd have a stronger future if they concentrated on selling their battery and drivetrain tech and developing the charging network into the global standard as that is where they have the biggest head start, trying to make cars from zero is only going to end one way I feel.

 

[andyoz]

He's probably too much of an egotistical prick to do it, but I reckon they'd have a stronger future if they concentrated on selling their battery and drivetrain tech and developing the charging network into the global standard as that is where they have the biggest head start, trying to make cars from zero is only going to end one way I feel.

Looking at this video, Tesla's battery 'tech' is just piggybacking off existing Panasonic tech. He goes into the hard numbers so as an engineer I'm still trying to figure out where the ...'Tesla is 6 years ahead of the rest" claim comes from (apart from Tesla themselves).

A model S weighs 2.2 tonne. No wonder it's got a big range!!

 

[davidsrsb]

I am told that tyre damage to roads is very sensitive to axle loading.
Big Teslas are going to be pothole machines with high weight and torque

 

[NeilR]

Skip to 01:45 in this video...those look like hard facts to me?

I'm really struggling to see where the windfall is with Tesla in terms of actual car manufacturing? 2021 is when the pressure from other manufacturers really ramps up.

I followed a Honda E the other day and thought..I could see my wife driving the next generation of that. Never felt that about any Tesla.

i hold TSLA indirectly via my Baillie Gifford investments. I am not able to judge whether the guy above is right or not, but have outsourced the decision to the BG fund managers to call when to sell. They seem to have got it very right so far, whereas others have got it very wrong.

 

[andyoz]

i hold TSLA indirectly via my Baillie Gifford investments. I am not able to judge whether the guy above is right or not, but have outsourced the decision to the BG fund managers to call when to sell. They seem to have got it very right so far, whereas others have got it very wrong.

I'm talking more about the underlying tech as apposed to the share price. They are disconnected for now.

The simple fact is they are selling cars at a loss. The larger manufacturers will do the same on their EV's but have their existing ICE cars to subsidize it. I'm just not seeing the magical end game alot of others do.

Until I started researching it I'd thought Tesla have their own 100% proprietary battery tech that gives some magical power density... They don't.

 

[Dozey]

Yasa motors in Oxford have some interesting electric motor technology apparently used by Ferrari.

 

[Rana]

i hold TSLA indirectly via my Baillie Gifford investments. I am not able to judge whether the guy above is right or not, but have outsourced the decision to the BG fund managers to call when to sell. They seem to have got it very right so far, whereas others have got it very wrong.

You are in good hands. BG are nobody's fool.

 

[Rana]

I'm talking more about the underlying tech as apposed to the share price. They are disconnected for now.

The simple fact is they are selling cars at a loss. The larger manufacturers will do the same on their EV's but have their existing ICE cars to subsidize it. I'm just not seeing the magical end game alot of others do.

Until I started researching it I'd thought Tesla have their own 100% proprietary battery tech that gives some magical power density... They don't.

Also, Tesla have complicated indirectly water-cooled batteries, the big boys amongst the OEMs are developing oil-based direct cooling systems for their higher power density and quicker recharging (c.350kWh) models. Also Lucid have worked hard on improving motor efficiency. No reason why Tesla can't also adopt these (IP permitting), but their hardware advantage has been lost. So main differentiation parameters are not so much battery/motor hardware technology - I think Tesla will still be ahead in the control system and EV powertrain manufacturing integration.

 

[NeilR]

You are in good hands. BG are nobody's fool.

yes, I think so. Even better, I got into four of my five my BG funds back in 2018 so i took full benefit from the recent stellar gains.

Unlike my UK equity income funds which have been hugely disappointing over the years. Fortunately my other holdings have made up for this.

 

[andyoz]

Also, Tesla have complicated indirectly water-cooled batteries, the big boys amongst the OEMs are developing oil-based direct cooling systems for their higher power density and quicker recharging (c.350kWh) models. Also Lucid have worked hard on improving motor efficiency. No reason why Tesla can't also adopt these (IP permitting), but their hardware advantage has been lost. So main differentiation parameters are not so much battery/motor hardware technology - I think Tesla will still be ahead in the control system and EV powertrain manufacturing integration.

I just sense the big boys are quietly working away using more normal car manufacturing timeframes. Test and refine for mass production.

Musk just seems keen to hold big Apple style launches of vehicles with crazy performance claims and ridiculous timescales that he knows won't be met. It's a cult.

Who else could get away with showing a new car...going on about a 'feature' --- unbreakable glass --- then proceed to demonstrate in the demo that he's talking BS. Oh how we all laughed. I mean WTF...

 

[davidsrsb]

I thought that electric motors and motor controllers could already achieve close to 100% efficiency. Reducing weight, cooling and the step down gearbox are another matter.

 

[Ponty]

BTC over $30K. They’ve got to stop printing, get debt under control and raise IR’s or we’re heading for a crack up boom.

 

[andyoz]

^^^ well it was pretty obvious which was this was heading...wait for the politicians fake surprise faces when inflation really hits. They would have been briefed about the risks from May onwards.

Covid has ****ed over society and we barely know it yet.

BTW I still think Gold and Silver have a long way to go. It's not a case of investors deserting them for Bitcoin, they will coexist.

 

[Ponty]

The likes of Tesla and Bitcoin are driven by excess liquidity and speculation, there are no fundamentals.
Gold is under $1900, I’m tempted to accumulate. My only doubt is the dollar. I think it’s going to slide, meaning gold (and US equities) holdings will fall in Sterling terms.

 

[andyoz]

The likes of Tesla and Bitcoin are driven by excess liquidity and speculation, there are no fundamentals.
Gold is under $1900, I’m tempted to accumulate. My only doubt is the dollar. I think it’s going to slide, meaning gold (and US equities) holdings will fall in Sterling terms.

Speculators are all over the markets now. Hell, I am one of them and I have been sitting on my hands for years before this.

You know my thoughts on Tesla. A company getting to that P/E yet can't sell it's product for a profit is an impressive feat. It's not like they can magically halve their input costs etc. They did cut the sale price and ended up with the Tesla 3 - the videos I am seeing about the fit and finish beggar belief. I'd assumed issues were mostly interiors but they also appear to even get the external panels to fit consistently.

 

[Ponty]

Might have a go on the gold miners for a bit of diversification. I’m aware of GDX, any others to consider?

Chatting to my employment lawyer mate yesterday, he said it’s f***king carnage out there (he’s flat out...). Jobs going all over the place, often the well paid ones as companies strip out cost and fat to survive. Those remaining have to pick up the pieces but in his words, they’re lucky to still have a job.

 

[Dozey]

I only know of Pan African and Polymetal on the gold mining front. Have been tempted myself.

 

[Rana]

I thought that electric motors and motor controllers could already achieve close to 100% efficiency. Reducing weight, cooling and the step down gearbox are another matter.

Yes, improving and, critically, maintaining the "tractive effort/kg" of the motive powertrain and invertor is what I meant by "motor efficiency", so sorry about my loose language. Cooling both motor, invertor pack and lubricating any associated transmission whilst minimising the mass is a key issue being worked on.