So that's the climate f****d then

[Joe P]

A telling figure from the National Snow and Ice Data Center — a plot of air temperature in the Arctic from 1979 to 2018 by month.

The graphic ranks months based on their Arctic air temperature from 1979 to 2018 at 925 hPa from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Dark reds indicate warmest months; dark blues indicate coldest months.

Joe

 

[dweezil]

I was very late to it.

I first began to wonder in the mid eighties, went to East Africa and people were talking about a trend to later and drier rainy seasons.

There was a little discussion in the Ecologist and we were aware of the potential implications of greenhouse theory and chemistry from the early 19th century.

About the same time there was a lot of discussion about beet drilling dates, optimum is very dependant on spring temperatures and we'd gained over 20 days since the war. Partly down to variety but not totally.

One thing that really struck me was becoming aware of the low altitude of the space station; that's under 250 miles making our atmosphere a really thin little onion skin of habitable space.

Each square inch only has 15 pounds of atmosphere above it; one decent bonfire and that's another sqinch f****d.

 

[Marky-Mark]

Any thoughts on where the one-percent folks are building their subterranean cities?

 

[dweezil]

Wasn't Reagan building high up in Paraguay?

Somewhere like that iirc.

 

[Joe P]

Marky,

Canada is one country that *could* benefit from non-catastrophic warming, though it would be ironic if we saw waves of refugees coming from the United States, fleeing sweltering heat and coastal flooding.

Joe

 

[timola]

The tipping point has probably already been reached. We will be going from the current 'icehouse' Earth to a 'greenhouse' Earth. The record low levels of CO2 which are bad for vegetation have now changed (Only the Carboniferous Period had CO2 levels as low as present).

But the Earth has been here before and gone much further :

https://sites.google.com/site/thepaleoceneeocenethermalmaxim/home

Mangroves and rain forests spread as far north as England and Belgium and as far south as Tasmania and New Zealand.

Turtles, hippo’s, alligators and palm trees graced Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic; tropical algae, Apectodinium, spread northwards as far as the north pole.

The PETM only lasted 100K years and changed the course of evolution for the better (from a human point of view).

Even if human's don't survive the current climate change, the plants will love us and who knows what new self-conscious species arises....maybe it will be a Planet Of The Apes.

Exciting times ahead for the Earth. No need to have a downer about climate change, it may be the best thing human's ever did for the Earth.

 

[Joe P]

As far back as direct measurement allow — 800,000 years — here’s the evidence that we have dramatically and unmistakably increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

And it’s only up from here. This may be the worst thing humans have done to life on the planet.

Joe

 

[Marky-Mark]

About the only positive thing I can fathom from the denial is rather than freaking out people go directly into shock. But then if more of those pesky science guys do stuff like this maybe there will be some solid freakout time

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/02/rebellious-scientists-issue-urgent-appeal/

edit: boards like reddit/collapse - if you believe their numbers - are apparently seeing rapid membership growth. So maybe a big freakout will begin sooner than I think, since those folks are tossing 5-10 year collapse windows around.

 

[timola]

https://news.cnrs.fr/articles/when-earth-was-a-snowball

Having a broader perspective helps. I find the 'freakout' stance rather amusing...climate change (even catastrophic) is just historical fact.
Maybe the 'freakout' should be for why aren't we going nuclear.

 

[Joe P]

I find the "it'll all be fine stance" rather more worrying and quite honestly irresponsible and unsupported by evidence — especially so because the concentration of gases in the ancient Earth's atmosphere is not relevant to the situation today.

Hint: Life was very different 4 billion years ago — it was single celled and nothing approaching what is found today — and the sun was much dimmer, too.

Joe

 

[Joe P]

Here's another timeline to help explain the situation.

Joe

 

[timola]

I find the "it'll all be fine stance" rather more worrying and quite honestly irresponsible and unsupported by evidence — especially so because the concentration of gases in the ancient Earth's atmosphere is not relevant to the situation today.

Hint: Life was very different 4 billion years ago — it was single celled and nothing approaching what is found today — and the sun was much dimmer, too.

Joe

The PETM was only 55 million years ago. There was plenty of life before and after it. The CO2 was absorbed back into the biosphere as it will be again after the current disturbance.

Cleaner energy should be sought and fossil fuels used much less and more wisely. Panicking is not the answer. Its too late already....probably.

 

[Joe P]

Tim,

I'm not panicking, but the time to change the Titanic's course is not when the ginormous iceberg in just off the starboard bow.

The CO2 was absorbed back into the biosphere as it will be again after the current disturbance.

Joe

 

[vuk]

timola.

why do you bother posting? what you are doing is essentially a thread crap, albeit a subtle, passive-aggressive one.

i am panicking -- it is a very natural reaction for a person who understands the situation.

 

[Joe P]

Vuk,

Tim oscillates between saying that (a) we have to continue burning fossil fuels so we can develop the advanced space-faring technology necessary to leave earth before the sun goes nova and the only sentient life we know for sure has ever evolved can continue to exist and (b) we're screwed, we've passed the point of no return, and we're all going to die but we might be doing plants a favour by making CO2 more abundant.

(a)

I see it more pragmatically; we need to move onto the next phase of civilization and technology over the next 200 years or so, then everything will be correctable. Consciousness has developed in this corner of the universe for the first and possibly only time (just my conjecture), without it nothing can experience it's wonders, it must move out to other worlds.

(b)

Even if human's don't survive the current climate change, the plants will love us and who knows what new self-conscious species arises....maybe it will be a Planet Of The Apes.

Exciting times ahead for the Earth. No need to have a downer about climate change, it may be the best thing human's ever did for the Earth.

He's probably a Tellarite.

Joe

 

[Joe P]

Having a broader perspective helps. I find the 'freakout' stance rather amusing...climate change (even catastrophic) is just historical fact.

Like this?

Kate Marvel

Joe

 

[timola]

Tim,

I'm not panicking, but the time to change the Titanic's course is not when the ginormous iceberg in just off the starboard bow.

Joe

I like this video. It essentially says we're screwed which is my position (b). Stopping the fossil fuel Titanic is essentially impossible over the next say 30years. The added CO2 will double the preindustrial concentration and stay for 1000's of years before corrected. If I'm basically correct here, there's no point panicking, its too late.

On my position (a) I'm pinning my hope on a technological fix in conjunction with colonisation of other worlds. Universities and research organization are built on top of economic success which in turn is built on energy use. More energy use leads to more wealth and universities.

So we have a race....can we make a technological step change before we all die from something.

My position is simple go nuclear fast and definitely don't slow wealth production for the sake of civilization and the growth of university numbers. Universities won't exist in a subsistence world. Also wealth creation is the best way to control population and help the poor.

I'll stop crapping this thread now.

 

[Marky-Mark]

There may be no point in panicking; there may well be no point in anything, given one's level of pessimism about this, but there are countless people who've no clue what is soon to become story #1 in their life and the lives of their children. My point for bringing up when the "freak out" happens is just that: in how orderly a fashion can the more rational among us expect that scenario to unfold?

As far as fear goes in relation to this mess, there's the fear of what the earth actually gifts us, and then there's the fear of how the 40 character, tl;dr, wouldn't know a critical thought if it climbed up their ass and had their colon for breakfast (unless they grabbed it during a Flash Sale with a coupon) mass of people comes to terms with any level of suffering, much less one where there is no help to be had and they're hungry. Or thirsty. Now.

Between the two, it should be obvious which one is cause for the higher anxiety.

 

[Joe P]

I never thought that global investors and I would be on the same soapbox, but here we are on the same soapbox.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-financial-crash-say-worlds-biggest-investors

It almost makes me believe that climate change is real and we ought to be doing something about it.

If we want to meet the Paris Agreement targets, global carbon emissions need to track the green line. The red line is a path to a much warmer world and ocean acidification. It's also the path we're currently following.

Joe

 

[dweezil]

That's tough to achieve, world population is double the 1960 value now.