gavreid
Pretty Words...
Slowing down certainly. In some scenarios it's set to peak later this century.
This site contains affiliate links for which pink fish media may be compensated.
Potential Level 4 heat warning for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday in England (i.e., you might die)
- Thread starter notaclue
- Start date
Slowing down certainly. In some scenarios it's set to peak later this century.
sideshowbob
Champagne fascia aficionado
Yes, exact timescales are hard to assess. But the global population is aging and almost nowhere in the world is the birth rate even at replacement level, and it hasn't been for quite some time. The coming demographic crisis is one of an aging population, not an increasing one.
Pearce is also very good on the adequacy of resource availability, even given current population levels. As always, the problem is fundamentally economics and politics, not demography.
Pearce is also very good on the adequacy of resource availability, even given current population levels. As always, the problem is fundamentally economics and politics, not demography.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
I’ve worked for 46 years and have mostly been unable to get to my work location without a car other than in specific circumstances, eg I’ve worked in London, overseas and at sea.
Public transport is simply not there and neither is the infrastructure for cycling safely. I don’t expect this to change.
Rockmeister
pfm Member
and that. Too few boy scouts around these days.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I don't expect it to change either - It should have been happening gradually over the past 25 years or so and we'd now be well on the way - but that's the sort of change that is needed.
However, a lot of times when people (not you necessarily) say they can't it simply isn't the case
laughingboy
pfm Member
Global population is not the problem your figures suggest (a trend that adds 2bn every 20yrs, suggests 16bn by 2100). The growth trend is slowing. It looks like global population will peak at less than 11bn at the end of the century (Wikipedia). It may drop after that.
Population is not producing climate change. Western lifestyles - and the drive to emulate them elsewhere - are the problem. We need to take responsibility for redesigning our lives in a sustainable way. No-one has the right to an unsustainable western lifestyle. That's the usual conservative argument, isn't it: The problem is people who claim rights without taking responsibility? Well, here you are. Take responsibility. Show the rest of the world how it is done.
Finnegan
I like a bit of a cavort
In 2008 Bolivia had a population density of 8.4 people per square kilometre, and a GDP per capita of £2,030. Venezuela had a population density of 28.5 people per square kilometre and a GDP per capita of £6,190. Therefore Venezuela is more than three times more densely populated than Bolivia, but is three times as rich.
India had a population density of 345 people per square kilometre, broadly similar to Japan at 343. Yet India had a GDP per capita of just £1,370, compared to Japan’s £16,750. A cursory examination of the different histories of these two nations will afford an explanation.
Some of the most populous countries in the world (Japan, The Netherlands) are also the some of the wealthiest. The view that sees, for example food shortage as caused by too many mouths to feed, is essentially the same argument that immigration leads to fewer jobs and houses for the ‘indigenous’ population. The labour market is not a fixed pool that reaches exhaustion, but expands and contracts, needing immigrant labour in times of expansion. If there is a shortage of housing stock, stop selling off council houses and build new ones.
Not enough room? How often do we see planning permission granted for a third or fourth superstore in a town that already has ample provision. Or Donald Trump being allowed to destroy a range of SSSI sand dunes to build yet another golf course. U.K. farmers complain that crops are left to rot because there is not enough labour to pick them. Like the labour market, food production is not a fixed pool that reaches exhaustion. It is a matter of political priority, not overpopulation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-61568286
India had a population density of 345 people per square kilometre, broadly similar to Japan at 343. Yet India had a GDP per capita of just £1,370, compared to Japan’s £16,750. A cursory examination of the different histories of these two nations will afford an explanation.
Some of the most populous countries in the world (Japan, The Netherlands) are also the some of the wealthiest. The view that sees, for example food shortage as caused by too many mouths to feed, is essentially the same argument that immigration leads to fewer jobs and houses for the ‘indigenous’ population. The labour market is not a fixed pool that reaches exhaustion, but expands and contracts, needing immigrant labour in times of expansion. If there is a shortage of housing stock, stop selling off council houses and build new ones.
Not enough room? How often do we see planning permission granted for a third or fourth superstore in a town that already has ample provision. Or Donald Trump being allowed to destroy a range of SSSI sand dunes to build yet another golf course. U.K. farmers complain that crops are left to rot because there is not enough labour to pick them. Like the labour market, food production is not a fixed pool that reaches exhaustion. It is a matter of political priority, not overpopulation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-61568286
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
The figures don't suggest a trend of 2Bn every 20 years, though, that would be a linear graph. The figures show a trend that increases by a given amount in ever shorter time periods. That's an exponential curve which, on those numbers, isn't showing signs of levelling off but instead of getting more acutely problematic.
I know population isn't the only cause of the problem, and overconsumption in 'western' lifestyles is at least as important as a driver, alongside bad political and economic choices by governments, but to dismiss the population numbers as irrelevant seems to me to be difficult to justify. Let's not forget that we're not just competing with ourselves. A growing global population outcompetes other flora and fauna for resources.
Ponty
pfm Member
It’s the exponential growth which is the problem. It’s not necessarily the 2BN, it’s the fact that global population has increased by a third in circa 20 years, which would suggest nearer 25BN by 2100. Every mouth needs feeding, watering, shelter and (hopefully) healthcare and education etc etc. Every single action has an environmental impact. Even us lot debating this is consuming power, creating heat etc etc.
Richard Lines
pfm Member
Unfortunately this would appear to encapsulate society as a whole which is why we need a Churchill type leader and a government of "National Unity" as our current dilemma is way beyond petty political point scoring, unfortunately back in the real world......
The above paragraph kind of encapsulates the other side of the problem in that the availability of the car and seemingly "cheap" transport has completely transformed society.
Most recently I was working with a Dutch guy, married to a woman from NZ. They visit NZ every year to see family. It is this type of thing which needs to be limited.
Things have to change as there is no god given right for people to travel the length and breadth of the country visiting relatives whether by private or public transport.
I see certain politicians wittering about reducing VAT/ tax on fuel - absolutely not except for goods transport. There are cases such as health workers etc. whose transport should be subsidised/ provided as necessary and probably a whole host of others of which I'm not aware but the general public - no - keep increasing the price of fuel until habits change.
We're supposed to feel sympathy for this:-
I am a car enthusiast by the way...........
At home we've even revised our horse pooh hoovering activities and carry it out less frequently - less diesel burnt, better for the worms/ dung beetles and the birds what eat the beetles.......
Regards
Richard
gavreid
Pretty Words...
The busiest day for the London Firebrigade since WW2!!
London Fire Brigade had busiest day since World War Two, says London mayor - BBC News
London Fire Brigade had busiest day since World War Two, says London mayor - BBC News
Ponty
pfm Member
Unfortunately this would appear to encapsulate society as a whole which is why we need a Churchill type leader and a government of "National Unity" as our current dilemma is way beyond petty political point scoring, unfortunately back in the real world......
The above paragraph kind of encapsulates the other side of the problem in that the availability of the car and seemingly "cheap" transport has completely transformed society.
Most recently I was working with a Dutch guy, married to a woman from NZ. They visit NZ every year to see family. It is this type of thing which needs to be limited.
Things have to change as there is no god given right for people to travel the length and breadth of the country visiting relatives whether by private or public transport.
I see certain politicians wittering about reducing VAT/ tax on fuel - absolutely not except for goods transport. There are cases such as health workers etc. whose transport should be subsidised/ provided as necessary and probably a whole host of others of which I'm not aware but the general public - no - keep increasing the price of fuel until habits change.
We're supposed to feel sympathy for this:-
I am a car enthusiast by the way...........
At home we've even revised our horse pooh hoovering activities and carry it out less frequently - less diesel burnt, better for the worms/ dung beetles and the birds what eat the beetles.......
Regards
Richard
Problem is, govts don’t really want us to consume less because they want the tax revenues. And so it will continue.
laughingboy
pfm Member
Yes, Ponty's selectively quoted numbers suggest runaway, exponential population. I took a straight line as the most conservative outcome of those numbers, precisely to avoid exaggeration and avoid having to explain how I got to my figures. The idea that there is exponential population growth is a misunderstanding. Birth rates are already down, but people are living longer, and having children later in life. The point is, because of the way that birth rates and increasing length of life interact, the replacement rate is the key. That is falling to near zero growth. Population, which I am not dismissing entirely as a problem - it clearly is a problem on a finite planet, just not the main problem - largely seems to be taking care of itself, but the population figures will take a lifetime to reflect this.
The bigger problem, meanwhile, is fossil-fuelled lifestyles.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Current atmospheric CO2 levels are accelerating (probably exponentially) and not slowing
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/
Rockmeister
pfm Member
https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climat...l49bTp3LnBDumvQiBc5Zf84hv784KKhoaAjUTEALw_wcB
It's not much but if everyone did it, then we are on track.
It's not much but if everyone did it, then we are on track.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
but it means accepting that the hippies were right
That would be like getting a little kid to say sorry in many cases!
Finnegan
I like a bit of a cavort
I’m as skeptical as Monbiot re: individual actions such as putting out your plastic to be recycled. Sure it doesn’t do any harm but it’s pretty much pissing in the ocean to stop the tide coming in. This is going to take a huge social movement to turn around, individual lifestyle changes ain’t gonna do it. As an individual I might appreciate the benefits of going vegan, but Bolsanaro, who’s busy destroying the Amazon, doesn’t. Nor does the next leader of the Tory party.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
People often cite China (disregarding the fact that it is the world's choice for manufacturing on the cheap and a monster of our creation in that respect) but the US is a significant pariah nation.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271748/the-largest-emitters-of-co2-in-the-world/
Richard Lines
pfm Member
and now courtesy of the cretins occupying the chairs in the SCOTUS the EPA's hands are tied.................
Edit - ironically though there is an awful lot of money starting to flow into wind in the US simply on the economic basis alone.
Regards
Richard
Finnegan
I like a bit of a cavort
Yup, and in relation to the idea that technology will step up to the plate- reflect sun rays back into space with giant mirrors, re-freeze the polar caps, extract vast amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere- sure all these measures might be possible theoretically, but if you want an indication of the political impetus to do so, take a look at Cop 26 where the leaders of the world came together to meaningfully address climate catastrophe and achieved pretty much the square root of sweet FA. The next Cop after Egypt btw is in that green paradise, the United Arab Emirates.