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Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)

I'm somewhat optimistic that Garland's DOJ is still working its way up the food chain, attempting to strike deals, with the aim of minimizing the chance that a case brought against Trump fails in court, which would really be a catastrophic outcome.

I hope that is the case. Tribe, who was Garland's professor at Harvard, said of the hearings this week: “It greatly strengthens the case, particularly with respect to Trump’s direct involvement in fomenting the violence of the insurrection itself. The evidence that emerged was very powerful, indicating that [the riot] was anything but spontaneous, that he was fully aware at the time the unhinged meeting at the White House ended at around midnight on 18 December that his only remaining alternative was essentially to pull the trigger and issue the tweet at 1.42 in the morning, which included the dramatic call to action."

Tribe has also been quoted as saying Garland is incredibly slow.
 
I've been increasingly confident that Trump is going to get indicted as it so much is now public it seems hard how Garland can just ignore it.

Also at the least I suspect he is so damaged by it all that the odds of him being president again are massively reduced. They might still nominate him but he is going to be reduced to his 30% base and that means he is toast.
 
I've been increasingly confident that Trump is going to get indicted as it so much is now public it seems hard how Garland can just ignore it.

The problem as I see it is that the offence is virtually inseparable from the politics. If Trump were indicted, his fans would be up in arms (perhaps even literally). There really could be blood on the streets. Garland is between a rock and a hard place. And the USA has completely lost control of its internal situation. In Paul Krugman's words, one of the US political parties has completely lost its mind. I see from Heather Cox Richardson's latest letter that the great Republican hero, Victor Orbán, is coming to speak at a gathering at which Trump will also speak. Illiberal democracy à la hongroise may be the future of the USA.
 
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I've been increasingly confident that Trump is going to get indicted as it so much is now public it seems hard how Garland can just ignore it.

Also at the least I suspect he is so damaged by it all that the odds of him being president again are massively reduced. They might still nominate him but he is going to be reduced to his 30% base and that means he is toast.

I’m thinking it depends on the type of indictment. T***p could become President, appoint a lap dog as AG, and poof, all federal charges are dropped. I’m keeping my eye on Georgia. The state-level investigation seems to be proceeding, and a state-level indictment might give the GOP greater pause.

Ideally T***p would be convicted before 2024, but I doubt that will happen. If T***p is out, DeSantis appears to be next in line. He would be harder to beat than T***p, but it’s still doable. IMO, if the GOP nominated a more moderate (sane) conservative like Larry Hogan, they would win 2024 a landslide. Fortunately, they aren’t that bright.
 
The problem as I see it is that the offence is virtually inseparable from the politics. If Trump were indicted, his fans would be up in arms (perhaps even literally). There really could be blood on the streets. Garland is between a rock and a hard place. And the USA has completely lost control of its internal situation. In Paul Krugman's words, one of the US political parties has completely lost its mind. I see from Heather Cox Richardson's latest letter that the great Republican hero, Victor Orbán, is coming to speak at a gathering at which Trump will also speak. Illiberal democracy à la hongroise may be the future of the USA.

You are correct on Garland. He can not indict T***p unless the evidence is overwhelming. IMO, the cost of prosecuting and losing would be horrible, much higher than not prosecuting at all.
 
If T***p is out, DeSantis appears to be next in line.

If T**p goes for it but DeSantis wins the party nomination, will he claim that was rigged too? Be funny if DeSantis lost to Biden/Harris/whoever because T**p supporters stayed away as a result of more bogus stolen election claims.
 
You are correct on Garland. He can not indict T***p unless the evidence is overwhelming. IMO, the cost of prosecuting and losing would be horrible, much higher than not prosecuting at all.

There might be a political advantage in making it obvious that prosecution was technically possible, but to just leave it hanging there so the Republican party have to select their candidate not knowing whether Trump could be taken out at some point in the future.
 
There might be a political advantage in making it obvious that prosecution was technically possible, but to just leave it hanging there so the Republican party have to select their candidate not knowing whether Trump could be taken out at some point in the future.

That's too risky. We know that the GOP and their voter base doesn't care about Trumps crimes, and if Trump were to be elected he would bury the investigation and snuff out what remains of US democracy.
 
I’m thinking it depends on the type of indictment.

The witness tampering stuff is potentially more interesting than the Jan6 related crimes. It's a much simpler crime to prove as it avoids a lot of the mens rea and conspiracy type complications.

Also they get a double bite at the cherry as in any interview about the witness tampering there is a reasonable chance Trump commits perjury.
 
There might be a political advantage in making it obvious that prosecution was technically possible, but to just leave it hanging there so the Republican party have to select their candidate not knowing whether Trump could be taken out at some point in the future.

The evidence of potential prosecutions is already there via both Jan6 committee and the Mueller investigation which said he would be indicted for obstruction of justice if he wasn't president. In many ways, the fact that he hasn't been indicted for obstruction is more concerning than the lack of action on the Jan6 front where the crimes are more complicated and more difficult to prove.

Also the DoJ cannot talk about indictments that are "technically possible" without repeating the same egregious error that James Comey made right at the start of this with regard to Clinton. And if Comey had not made that error Clinton would almost certainly have won and we would be talking about the evils of corporate democrats rather than the rise of authoritarianism and the end of democracy in the United States.
 
Is there any decent polling/modelling for the different Republican leadership options? Obviously the key focus here is to stop America descending into a fascist/apartheid state and to my eyes Cruz, DeSantis etc are just as bad as Trump. They all stand for the exact same erosion of democracy, corruption, religious extremism and white supremacy. I’m curious which option most likely weakens this trajectory into hell, i.e. which should sane people root for? It seems absolutely essential the Democrats win the next election. If they don’t I’d be surprised if there was another in America for a very long time.
 
Is there any decent polling/modelling for the different Republican leadership options?

Trump still a strong favourite: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...blicans-want-someone-other-than-trump-in-2024

Although with Trump it's a bit like Johnson where he seems popular and well supported until he isn't at which point there will be an unseemly rush from the politicians to pretend they never liked him or wanted anything to do with him or his policies. His support in the membership and electorate will drop to his 30% who will always vote for him and the problem for people like DeSantis is they have to get rid of Trump while still appealing to this group. Hence, like many of the Tory candidates to repalce Johnson, they have to stick with the crazy.

If he can't run at all then I think it might open up for a more "conventional" (but still very right wing) candidate like Youngkin to go up against DeSantis.
 
Is there any decent polling/modelling for the different Republican leadership options? Obviously the key focus here is to stop America descending into a fascist/apartheid state and to my eyes Cruz, DeSantis etc are just as bad as Trump. They all stand for the exact same erosion of democracy, corruption, religious extremism and white supremacy. I’m curious which option most likely weakens this trajectory into hell, i.e. which should sane people root for? It seems absolutely essential the Democrats win the next election. If they don’t I’d be surprised if there was another in America for a very long time.
Oh, there would be elections. But they would be rigged.
 
Lauren Boebert's gun and stupidity themed restaurant has closed down. Not currently clear where someone in Colorado might go if they want to assert their 2nd amendment rights while eating a grilled cheese sandwich.

Apparently it was a rented location and the owner wanted her out. Sadly I bet she’ll be back somewhere else. Stupidity of that magnitude tends not to go away.

PS Relevant meme: ‘The sound of children screaming has been removed’ (Twitter).
 


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