Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)
- Thread starter Yank
- Start date
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
No he won’t. The noise from the usual suspects doesn’t move the dial toward him. There is every chance of jail and he has until the 11th July to dig himself a bigger problem. His base is not the electorate, in the second video Lichtman outlines where we are nicely.
Chefren
pfm Member
From what I read it's indeed unlikely for these kinds of crimes to be sentenced to actual behind-bars prison for a first-time offence.
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
You under estimate his ability to talk himself into deeper trouble by the sentencing date. There were also a stack of breaches of gag orders prior to verdict. There is every chance of jail and probation in some sort of combination. Becoming ever more unhinged, there is also every chance that he talks or threatens himself into more trouble.
Look at the witness and tactics that he quite obviously foisted on his defence team, that went well.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Is a suspended sentence a feature of US justice? If so, I wonder whether the judge might issue one, with conditions relating to his behaviour. Any further Trumpian shenanigans and he’d be off to chokey.
DonQuixote99
pfm Member
Exactly. He won't let things like the law and the Constitution keep him from 'pardoning himself in New York.'
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Just break all his golf clubs.
Preferably across the back of his head
Little difference between these clowns and Putin.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
The other astonishing part, of course, is that Trump has been able to get away with egregious offenses for so long precisely because he has weaponized parts of the US legal system, up to and including a majority of the Supreme Court. A lesser mortal would be sitting in jail, not campaigning for the Presidency.
-alan-
pfm Member
Interesting times. I think even though he may get a sympathy-vote uplift in the short term, this will cause him more damage amongst the non-rabid Swing voters out there.
I actually think he really missed a trick. If he really believes the legal system is as corrupt and weighted against a decent man like himself as he says, he should have played the Refuse to Recognise the Court Card. Better not to acquiesce to the judgement of such a corrupt entity than play the game and lose - Bigly. That would have properly put the cat amongst the pigeons if he were to be put in jail for that - and would have played out better for him as a persecuted ex-President. (I believe Presidential level executives and advisors not accepting the jurisidiction of the Court / Courts also plays rather well in 'Murica these days)
That would have taken balls though. But would also have made for great television over the next while
I actually think he really missed a trick. If he really believes the legal system is as corrupt and weighted against a decent man like himself as he says, he should have played the Refuse to Recognise the Court Card. Better not to acquiesce to the judgement of such a corrupt entity than play the game and lose - Bigly. That would have properly put the cat amongst the pigeons if he were to be put in jail for that - and would have played out better for him as a persecuted ex-President. (I believe Presidential level executives and advisors not accepting the jurisidiction of the Court / Courts also plays rather well in 'Murica these days)
That would have taken balls though. But would also have made for great television over the next while
The Captain
~~~~~~~~~~
matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
As ever with Trump, the prognostication is all over the place with confident predictions for every outcome widely available.
Will he get a jail sentence? Slight favourite, maybe 60-40. Judge might avoid the nuclear option being the first conviction and it would be a gutsy call. White person doing a white collar crime means he gets all the breaks of course even with an excellent judge.
On the election I lean likely he loses but it's hard not to worry. Broadly his 40% crazy base is secure, independent split likely moving against him, women also going away over the rape and abortion thing. For Biden it's his demographic weaknesses (young people over Israel, black voters affected by lingering effects of inflation/cost of living) and how this breaks in the 5 or 6 states that actually matter. And I worry about his milquetoast election strategy (and the crazy ideas around that he should somehow ignore all of this convicted felon stuff). Also hard to know how much of these effects (on both sides) don't "come home" when it gets down to the actual election and putting the X in the box.
I think the "Oh he is guaranteed to win" argument is silly and reminds me of when England's cricket team was always predicted to lose long after they stopped being permanently terrible. Adjust your priors and all that.
Will he get a jail sentence? Slight favourite, maybe 60-40. Judge might avoid the nuclear option being the first conviction and it would be a gutsy call. White person doing a white collar crime means he gets all the breaks of course even with an excellent judge.
On the election I lean likely he loses but it's hard not to worry. Broadly his 40% crazy base is secure, independent split likely moving against him, women also going away over the rape and abortion thing. For Biden it's his demographic weaknesses (young people over Israel, black voters affected by lingering effects of inflation/cost of living) and how this breaks in the 5 or 6 states that actually matter. And I worry about his milquetoast election strategy (and the crazy ideas around that he should somehow ignore all of this convicted felon stuff). Also hard to know how much of these effects (on both sides) don't "come home" when it gets down to the actual election and putting the X in the box.
I think the "Oh he is guaranteed to win" argument is silly and reminds me of when England's cricket team was always predicted to lose long after they stopped being permanently terrible. Adjust your priors and all that.
Tony L
Administrator
Given who and what he so clearly is things look far closer than I’d like. In any sane nation he should be a marginalised nutter like Yaxley Lennon or Jayda The Racist, but he’s right in there even as a convicted felon. That said we can’t judge anyone after lunatics like Johnson, Truss etc.
I’m also curious to see whether his radicalised far-right base can avoid any acts of terrorism over the next few weeks.
I’m also curious to see whether his radicalised far-right base can avoid any acts of terrorism over the next few weeks.
tones
Tones deaf
That is my uncomfortable feeling. This verdict will make him into a martyr for his base, and most of the rest of the USA (a) think they're worse off under Biden, and that (b) Biden is too old and his VP is not up to it. All Trump's raving and ranting give the impression of energy, no matter what nonsense he says. And every outrage is promptly swamped by a further outrage, until they all blur into each other, and the average US voter, who appears to have the attention span of a gnat, won't pay sufficient attention. Truimp's talent is the consumption of all the oxygen in the room. "Love me or hate me, but don't ignore me!" said Dame Nelly Melba. The inability to ignore him is Trump's talent.
Does every country truly get the government it deserves? The USA may be about to find out.