Labour Leader: Keir Starmer IV

[notaclue]

Survation (almost) gets it right again in Hartlepool. Very impressive.

Sir Keir is probably a worse campaigner than Mrs May. At least she would have known that hands in pockets when on the campaign trail is a big no-no.

He's also duller and less likeable than Mrs May. Lacking even her vaguely interesting nervousness.

There is no chance a man of his age and his personality could change. He must go.

 

[ciderglider]

This isn't an ordinary defeat, I think only two by-elections have been lost to the sitting government in the past 40 years and the loss of local councillors will be on a scale not seen since Blair. Starmer has been hung drawn and quartered and he shows no signs of recognising his mistakes.

Worth remembering that the most recent of those byelection defeats was suffered by Labour in 2017, under Corbyn's leadership.

 

[SteveS1]

Clear out the councils, throw everything at the Community Organising Unit, look forward with clear policies, including economic populism, where the electorate is left wing.

What Starmer actually did:
Back local councillors to the hilt, disband Community Organising Unit, look back with disgust at his own party and offer nothing for the future. Push cultural BS, where large parts of the electorate are right wing.

I agree with some of this, but you have to accept that at the moment the electorate is not receptive to thinking there is anything wrong with their recent choices, nor more than Trump's are. This is where we are with huge numbers of people and I'm unclear whether you are suggesting Labour avoid saying where they disagree, or merely throw hands up and go along with it even if they think it's wrong.

 

[gintonic]

Corbyn won Hartlepool twice, once with a huge majority.

and? that's purely a historical fact

 

[droodzilla]

But.
Theresa.
May.

 

[gavreid]

Worth remembering that the most recent of those byelection defeats was suffered by Labour in 2017, under Corbyn's leadership.

Yes nuclear power. Didn't the incumbent do a runner? I suspect it only convinced Corbyn [correctly] to run with a radical manifesto in the GE.

 

[ks.234]

It’s all Corbyn’s fault

 

[notaclue]

No wonder Johnson was spending so much tarting up the flat. He's there for many more years. Likely a Thatcher/Blair.

 

[Tony L]

This can only be viewed as a really conclusive win for Trump/Tea Party politics in the UK. No one cares if a party steals £bns of your tax and hands it to mates and donors. No one cares if it kills your grandparents and brown neighbours with a combination of gross incompetence and crackpot conspiracy theory libertarianism. All that matters is the far-right nationalism. That is clearly what gets votes.

Very scary times. Sure, Labour are utter shit, and arguably always have been aside from a slight blip with Attlee back in the 40s, but a massive landslide for Trump/Bannon alt-right politics is still absolutely terrifying. This can only be viewed as an endorsement for a far-right nationalist oligarchy/kleptocracy.

 

[TheDecameron]

This can only be viewed as a really conclusive win for Trump/Tea Party politics in the UK. No one cares if a party steals £bns of your tax and hands it to mates and donors. No one cares if it kills your grandparents and brown neighbours with a combination of gross incompetence and crackpot conspiracy theory libertarianism. All that matters is the far-right nationalism. That is clearly what gets votes.

Very scary times. Sure, Labour are utter shit, and arguably have been aside from a slight blip with Attlee back in the 40s, but a massive landslide for Trump/Bannon alt-right politics is still absolutely terrifying. This can only be viewed as an endorsement for a far-right nationalist oligarchy/kleptocracy.

Indeed, Hartlepool put on a “Grab My Pussy” T-shirt and went to the polls.

 

[Tony L]

It’s all Corbyn’s fault

It was rather amusing listening to Mcdonnel/Mandelson on R4 ealier attempting to blame it on Starmer/Corbyn. It is now clear Labour is over IMO. The party can’t possibly bridge the gap between ex-UKIP voters and left leaning liberals. Just shoot it in the head and allow a proper Green movement to grow. The trouble is there are way too many vested interests for this to happen.

 

[gavreid]

It was rather amusing listening to Mcdonnel/Mandelson on R4 ealier attempting to blame it on Starmer/Corbyn. It is now clear Labour is over IMO. The party can’t possibly bridge the gap between ex-UKIP voters and left leaning liberals. Just shoot it in the head and allow a proper Green movement to grow. The trouble is there are way too many vested interests for this to happen.

It's unlikely that too many Labour voters switched to the Tories. The Brexit Party's vote shifted to the Tory. For the most part Labour voters abstained in disgust - I see the Independent got 10% too (I was wrong about Thelma maybe regaining her deposit unfortunately).

 

[Spraggons Den]

The Tories probably would have won Hartlepool in 2019 if UKIP hadn’t taken so much of the vote so last nights result was not really a surprise to me. I personally like Sir Kiers quiet, considered way of talking, partly because it is in complete contrast to auld BJs bluster, but I can see how this might not play well in the north east which is a passionate area of the country.

 

[TheDecameron]

It's unlikely that too many Labour voters switched to the Tories. The Brexit Party's vote shifted to the Tory. For the most part Labour voters abstained in disgust - I see the Independent got 10% too (I was wrong about Thelma maybe regaining her deposit unfortunately).

I would like to believe that but the scale of the Tory win might suggest otherwise. That any Labour voter would vote for Johnson’s party having had the opportunity to see the extent of his corruption, utterly astonishes me. It matters not how ‘bad’ the Labour leader is- neither Corbyn nor Starmer could come close to what we are seeing with Johnson.

 

[Seanm]

I agree with some of this, but you have to accept that at the moment the electorate is not receptive to thinking there is anything wrong with their recent choices, nor more than Trump's are. This is where we are with huge numbers of people and I'm unclear whether you are suggesting Labour avoid saying where they disagree, or merely throw hands up and go along with it even if they think it's wrong.

None of what I’ve suggested requires Labour to stomp on people’s recent choices. But while we’re on it, in Hartlepool those choices included voting Labour, in spite of everything. This is above all a story of Labour’s vote collapsing: had they added only a hundred or so votes to their 2019 tally they’d have won yesterday. That ought not to have been impossible, given that we know that thousands of Labour’s 2017 voters stayed at home or lent their vote to Brexit-supporting parties in 2019, and Brexit is done, and surely a few Lib-dem and Green voters might have might have been persuaded under the circumstances.

I’m not saying a win was likely, but Jesus. They went out of their way to lose it. Remember that they stitched up the local democratic process to get the candidate they wanted, very much how this faction operates: that would have de-motivated local activists, who might have been a major asset. And what a candidate! Remain ultra, non local, history of misogynistic bantz and questionable positions on the NHS. Might have been custom-designed to lose big in this particular constituency, and they didn’t care, because their priority is always, always to keep out the left, not to win.

 

[Tony L]

It's unlikely that too many Labour voters switched to the Tories. The Brexit Party's vote shifted to the Tory. For the most part Labour voters abstained in disgust - I see the Independent got 10% too.

I’ll be interested to see the stats and polling in more detail as time goes on.

My theory is UKIP, Brexit Party etc, along with their xenophobic far-right social media campaigns, have acted as a gateway drug and have gradually removed much of Labour‘s socially conservative nationalist voters and effectively flipped them to Tory. Folk who wouldn’t have even considered voting Tory a decade ago have had their ‘Daily Express’ buttons pushed on social media etc for so long now they have warmed to the Tories alt-right Trump figure. I’m not saying this is all of it, but I’d put money on a very significant number of Hartlepool’s new Tory voters voted Labour pre-Brexit. I’d actually bet the house on it.

 

[gavreid]

I would like to believe that but the scale of the Tory win might suggest otherwise. That any Labour voter would vote for Johnson’s party having had the opportunity to see the extent of his corruption, utterly astonishes me.

Well Labour's vote is down 9% and the turnout by twice that. I reckon that people who actively wanted to vote Tory probably did so....

 

[Seanm]

and? that's purely a historical fact

Yes I know, but I thought, since you were waxing historical with your reference to Corbyn, you might like to be reminded of the historical fact that he won twice in Hartlepool. Very recently.

 

[gavreid]

I’ll be interested to see the stats and polling in more detail as time goes on.

... I’m not saying this is all of it, but I’d put money on a very significant number of Hartlepool’s new Tory voters voted Labour pre-Brexit. I’d actually bet the house on it.

I wouldn't argue with that - these demographic changes have been happening over a long period, just as some Tory voters have switched to Labour in parts of London. But all of that's on a much smaller scale. The Tories will put some money into the area now to shore up support but they can't buy off all constituencies...

 

[Seanm]

I’ll be interested to see the stats and polling in more detail as time goes on.

My theory is UKIP, Brexit Party etc, along with their xenophobic far-right social media campaigns, have acted as a gateway drug and have gradually removed much of Labour‘s socially conservative nationalist voters and effectively flipped them to Tory. Folk who wouldn’t have even considered voting Tory a decade ago have had their ‘Daily Express’ buttons pushed on social media etc for so long now they have warmed to the Tories alt-right Trump figure. I’m not saying this is all of it, but I’d put money on a very significant number of Hartlepool’s new Tory voters voted Labour pre-Brexit. I’d actually bet the house on it.

I don’t know. Brexit supporters will have been highly motivated to get out yesterday and the Conservative vote is up, for sure (although only a little on their 2017 result); but the Labour vote is down by more. Labour have spent the last year de-activating supporters and I think that’s as least as big an issue as there being a lot of proto-fascists out there - although that is definitely a thing. A thing that you don’t counter with vapid managerialism.