General Election 2024

[Seanm]

True that, Starmer should be 20 points ahead by now.

Starmer is obviously going to form the next government. But if I were Labour I'd be concerned about *beginning* a term in government with support already falling. It's not how these things generally work and it suggests that when things begin to go wrong - which is how these things generally work - they won't be given the benefit of the doubt.

That's one reading of the dynamics.

Another would be that before an election is called, the question of how a voter would vote is hypothetical and generalised. Once an election is called and voters are asked how they will vote thinking about their own constituency, the answers will be more specific.

If people are thinking more about their own constituency than the national picture this in itself would be very unusual.

 

[ks.234]

Labour and Conservatives both polling lower than when election called, Labour by 4%. If I were them I’d just hide in a fridge for the next 2 weeks, the more people see of them the less they like them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805149742109720776

Reform to become The Opposition? And the next blackhole to suck Labour in

 

[MVV]

Desperation, they will be doing everything possible to suppress the outcome of the gambling commission's investigation until after they lose the election. My guess is north of 15 in the end, if you include advisors and family members many more. Such stupid and corrupt grifters.

 

[kensalriser]

Starmer is obviously going to form the next government. But if I were Labour I'd be concerned about *beginning* a term in government with support already falling. It's not how these things generally work and it suggests that when things begin to go wrong - which is how these things generally work - they won't be given the benefit of the doubt.

If people are thinking more about their own constituency than the national picture this in itself would be very unusual.

It's part of the picture - tactical voting is well established and acknowledged as are other factors such as an incumbent's personal vote.

 

[Ponty]

I see Clarkson is hoping beyond hope for an anybody but Labour option on the voting form ( lol ) Should be a popular option
for many a socialist methinks

Quite a few vote Labour signs up in Chippy (what is the world coming to…). I can see the Labour / LD vote splitting the anti tory vote and remaining blue. Lots of plum places to live in that constituency.

 

[ks.234]

Starmer is obviously going to form the next government. But if I were Labour I'd be concerned about *beginning* a term in government with support already falling. It's not how these things generally work and it suggests that when things begin to go wrong - which is how these things generally work - they won't be given the benefit of the doubt.

If people are thinking more about their own constituency than the national picture this in itself would be very unusual.

Labour’s strategy is to go for growth, using the same failed plans for growth as the Tories, then blame the Tories when it doesn’t work, again.

 

[Tony L]

Lots of plum places to live in that constituency.

‘Plumb’ as in full of old racist UKIP voters?

 

[Seanm]

It's part of the picture - tactical voting is well established and acknowledged as are other factors such as an incumbent's personal vote.

Personal vote is not usually significant.

I guess we'll see if this is just ups and downs or if there's a general downward trend.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Desperation, they will be doing everything possible to suppress the outcome of the gambling commission's investigation until after they lose the election. My guess is north of 15 in the end, if you include advisors and family members many more. Such stupid and corrupt grifters.

I suspect that the Gambling Commission's report will:

a) genuinely not actually be finished before 4 July; and
b) even if it were finished, the pre-election 'purdah' rules would probably kick in and its release would have to be delayed until after 4 July.

 

[hifinutt]

No and no again. That is all down to The Bank of England who have done it through ruinous interest rates.

Yes you are right billo ..and yes they are ruinous for mortgage holders but not for savers !

 

[Ponty]

‘Plumb’ as in full of old racist UKIP voters?

As in true blue tory. No idea what % are UKIP voters, there was no UKIP candidate in 2019. There was in 2017, with 1.6% of the vote. Guess they gave up with such low support.

 

[Tony L]

As in true blue tory. No idea what % are UKIP voters, there was no UKIP candidate in 2019. There was in 2017, with 1.6% of the vote. Guess they gave up with such low support.

I was only taking the mick (not that one). There is only ever one far-right Farage party, in 2019 it was Brexit Party, now Reform. They changed the colour from plumb to Tory blue and added a big white arrow that points to Trump/Putin.

 

[kensalriser]

Personal vote is not usually significant.

I guess we'll see if this is just ups and downs or if there's a general downward trend.

I'm not at all convinced the polls are accurate - how can they be when they're varying so much? 2017/2019 were very binary Labour/Tory elections, this one looks as though it very much won't be, making predictions more uncertain especially where there might be a three or even four way fight. In such marginal conditions, small factors can be decisive.

 

[Ponty]

Just trying to work through the figures of the state taking on private school pupils.

So far all i see is that most of the private school places are day schools on about £12kpa so will pay £2400 VAT but state school places cost c£7k each so our glorious leaders will lose c£4600 each? Boarding schools at (?) c£50k will pay £10k so a little to be had there but maybe a big loss in foreign earnings.

Only started thinking about it this morning after an item on private SEN schools so maybe i've missed something!

We only sent one to private school and it didn't seem to be a hotbed of entitled gentry.

It will cost the state more than it raises IMHO. Pure political grandstanding. Of course, the tier 1 schools won’t be impacted, it will be day pupils at the minor schools, where choices and sacrifices are made to attend.

 

[Ponty]

I was only taking the mick (not that one). There is only ever one far-right Farage party, in 2019 it was Brexit Party, now Reform. They changed the colour from plumb to Tory blue and added a big white arrow that points to Trump/Putin.

It will be interesting to see the reform % vote share, even if they don’t win any seats. I’ve got a feeling it could be surprisingly high. It will then be possible to create a map against the national average of more / less racist areas.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Just trying to work through the figures of the state taking on private school pupils.

So far all i see is that most of the private school places are day schools on about £12kpa so will pay £2400 VAT but state school places cost c£7k each so our glorious leaders will lose c£4600 each? Boarding schools at (?) c£50k will pay £10k so a little to be had there but maybe a big loss in foreign earnings.

Only started thinking about it this morning after an item on private SEN schools so maybe i've missed something!

We only sent one to private school and it didn't seem to be a hotbed of entitled gentry.

I think you can't look at this as an all-or-nothing situation. If less than about a third of private pupils migrate to state schools, then there's a net gain to the exchequer. I don't think anybody is expecting those sort of numbers, still less all the private schools to collapse entirely and dump their pupils into the state system.

There is, I think, a risk that what happens is that the private system just becomes more elitist, because those who can pay from petty cash will still be able to pay, and it's the scrimpers and savers who will have to withdraw. But the flipside to that is that it's the scrimpers and savers who will demand better standards from the state system for their kids.

 

[ks.234]

Farage's 'Putinism' is pure Farage. It's another opportunity for him to have a dig at the EU, by confusing and obfuscating EU and to some extent NATO expansion ( but not 'expansionism'), with Putin's Imperialism. It also handily aligns him with Trump//just in case he has to do yet another 'about face'.

We (should) all know that membership of both the EU and NATO are voluntary, that neither the EU nor NATO have ever invaded so much as a square inch of Russian, or former Soviet Bloc territory and that NATO is purely a defensive alliance, as borne out by the facts.
To claim admiration for Putrid 'as a political operator', even after Putrid had already usurped Russia's fledgeling Democracy.. says a lot about Farage's methodology, tactics and ambitions.
He's a shit..but he's not a joke.

Yes, it was the EU that Farage blamed, but for the wrong reasons, reasons he could never admit to. The problem was that Ukraine needed trading partners and all the EU offers came with the usual conditionalities about spending limits, privatisation etc. Ukraine wanted free trade. The offers from Russia came with just one; to withdraw from the EU Ukraine Association Agreement.

So it was the economic war between Russia and the West where the main battle lines were drawn first and foremost

Ukraine had plans to expand spending on Health and Education which seem to have withered on the vine to be replaced by large scale privatisation and 1/3 of farm land being bought up by US multinationals.

If Farage was railing against the economic exploitation of Ukraine, I’d have more respect for the man, but his objectives are still with the exploiters, not the exploited

 

[Tony L]

It will be interesting to see the reform % vote share, even if they don’t win any seats. I’ve got a feeling it could be surprisingly high. It will then be possible to create a map against the national average of more / less racist areas.

Agreed, though I think it will be unnaturally high as so many want to lash out at the Tory’s having destroyed everything, failed on every metric, and generally taken the piss out of us all for 14 years.

Farage is very good at selling nostalgia dressed with racism to old people. There are a lot of old people in the UK not doing too well who are ripe for harvest and they will turn out to vote. He is the most dangerous person in UK politics IMO. So much of the UK’s decline can be pegged on the lies he sold to gammon pensioners.

 

[Mullardman]

Labour and Conservatives both polling lower than when election called, Labour by 4%. If I were them I’d just hide in a fridge for the next 2 weeks, the more people see of them the less they like them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805149742109720776

Reminds me of...

 

[Finnegan]

Labour and Conservatives both polling lower than when election called, Labour by 4%. If I were them I’d just hide in a fridge for the next 2 weeks, the more people see of them the less they like them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805149742109720776

So Starmer is polling at the same level as Corbyn in 2017. He’s a real sharp cookie getting shot of that lefty liability.