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French Presidential Election 2022

Seanm said:
The left did well, depriving Macron of a majority.

And: where the options were left or far right, "centrist" candidates refused to endorse the left, and so did centrist voters.

"According to the below, when faced with a choice between Le Pen's National Rally and the left-wing NUPES coalition, 72% of the voters who back Macron's party (LREM) didn't vote"
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1538621701587619847?s=20&t=BtdX5v3wO9K9QXlHRo_C-Q

"Ipsos project 89 MPs for Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. In 56 of 61 run-offs between NUPES and the RN, Macron’s losing first round candidate refused to support the left-winger, in many cases condemning ‘all extremes’"
https://twitter.com/broderly/status/1538609205535559680?s=20&t=BtdX5v3wO9K9QXlHRo_C-Q

By rights we should now have a few pages discussing what centrists have in common with fascists, how centrists are so obsessed with purity they end up enabling fascists etc. :)

Anyway, let's see what Macron does: an actual alliance with fascists seems to be a real possibility.
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72% is grim.

Trying to be objective (yes, I know!)... do we know how many left-wing voters abstained, given a choice between Macron's bunch and the far-right? What did the left-wing coalition candidate recommend in that scenario?

Will be interesting to see what Macron does. Will a coalition with the old Republican right give him a majority?
 
droodzilla said:
72% is grim.

Trying to be objective (yes, I know!)... do we know how many left-wing voters abstained, given a choice between Macron's bunch and the far-right? What did the left-wing coalition candidate recommend in that scenario?

Will be interesting to see what Macron does. Will a coalition with the old Republican right give him a majority?
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44%, according to polls quoted by PSB:

PsB said:
Based on exit polls*, 18% of 1st round Mélenchon voters voted for Le Pen in the 2nd round. 44% abstained etc., and 38% voted for Macron. Similar proportions for Pécresse voters: 22% for MLP (and 51% for Macron, 27% abstained). Macron picked up 68% of the Jadot vote.

*Elabe/BFM poll. Ipsos has slightly different but broadly similar numbers (17 MLP/41 Abst/42 EM for Mélenchon voters, 18/29/53 for Pécresse voters).
EDIT: mix-up on the Mélenchon voters supporting Macron, now corrected
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Cheese said:
This is very much a lefty thing. France already has the lowest retirement age in Europe, money isn’t there even for 62, but why not lower it even further. It sounds so good before an election after all. Melenchon is a charlatan, you should hear him speaking at his shows.
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I don’t agree.
About retirement, just let the young have the jobs. Why work more when unemployment plagues the young generation? Please explain.
 
ks.234 said:
NUPES are described as “far left” by BBC, who list main policies as…
  • Retirement to be lowered from 62 to 60
  • The minimum wage (known as Smic) to go up by around 15% to €1,500 a month
  • The return of wealth taxes on people and companies
  • A freeze on the prices of basic essentials
  • The creation of a million jobs.

Are these far left policies? God help us.
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Where does the BBC describe Nupes as Far-Left?
 
Bananahead said:
Where does the BBC describe Nupes as Far-Left?
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On the radio this morning - it's clearly been an editorial decision in case we get any such ideas - far left and far right vs (the nice) Macron...

'Far Left' appears twice here in case you miss it first time:

Far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-green alliance finished neck and neck with the centrist Macron coalition in the first round a week ago.

They call themselves Nupes, which stands for New Ecological and Social Popular Union, and the polls suggest they could stop the president winning the 289 seats he needs. The president's alliance, Ensemble, portrays them as a "marriage of convenience" of Communists, Socialists, far-left Mélenchonists and Greens.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61852061

Here too

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-61860587
 
gavreid said:
On the radio this morning - it's clearly been an editorial decision in case we get any such ideas - far left and far right vs (the nice) Macron...

'Far Left' appears twice here in case you miss it first time:

Far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-green alliance finished neck and neck with the centrist Macron coalition in the first round a week ago.

They call themselves Nupes, which stands for New Ecological and Social Popular Union, and the polls suggest they could stop the president winning the 289 seats he needs. The president's alliance, Ensemble, portrays them as a "marriage of convenience" of Communists, Socialists, far-left Mélenchonists and Greens.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61852061

Here too

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-61860587
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They don't call NUPES far-left. They just call Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his party far-left. Not the same thing in any way. And your quote even says as much.
 
gavreid said:
On the radio this morning - it's clearly been an editorial decision in case we get any such ideas - far left and far right vs (the nice) Macron...

'Far Left' appears twice here in case you miss it first time:

Far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-green alliance finished neck and neck with the centrist Macron coalition in the first round a week ago.

They call themselves Nupes, which stands for New Ecological and Social Popular Union, and the polls suggest they could stop the president winning the 289 seats he needs. The president's alliance, Ensemble, portrays them as a "marriage of convenience" of Communists, Socialists, far-left Mélenchonists and Greens.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61852061

Here too

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-61860587
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This is why Marine Le Pen has declared the legislatives a victory for RN. She says that Nupes isn't a party, it's a loose alliance which will now fall apart.
 
Bananahead said:
They don't call NUPES far-left. They just call Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his party far-left. Not the same thing in any way. And your quote even says as much.
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Guilt by association. Melenchon isn't far left (he's a similar beast to Sanders or Corbyn or Tony Benn.) Even Wikipedia describes La France Insoumise as Social Democrat/left populist. They used 'far left' generally on the radio this morning, in the way I described.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_France_Insoumise
 
Seanm said:
44%, according to polls quoted by PSB:
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That was the presidential election. Some figures for the general election yesterday (note: these numbers are from an IPSOS poll, representative sample n=4000, interviews between June 15 and June 18, i.e. these must be intentions rather than actual votes):
1) Where the second round choice was NUPES (Mélenchon) versus RN (Le Pen)
- 72% of Ensemble (Macron) voters abstained, 16% voted NUPES, 12% voted RN.
- 58% of LR (Pécresse) voters abstained, 30% voted RN, 12% voted NUPES
2) Where the second round choice was NUPES versus Ensemble,
- 52% of RN voters abstained, 30% voted NUPES, 18% voted Ensemble.
- 35% of LR voters abstained, 60% voted Ensemble, 5% voted NUPES
3) Strangely, I haven't been able to find similar figures for NUPES or LR voters in Ensemble vs. RN contests. Would be interested if anybody has seen anything like that.
4) Only 8% of NUPES candidates and 11% of Ensemble candidates beaten in the first round explicitly called on "their" 1st round voters to vote against the RN.
 
PsB said:
That was the presidential election. Some figures for the general election yesterday (note: these numbers are from an IPSOS poll, representative sample n=4000, interviews between June 15 and June 18, i.e. these must be intentions rather than actual votes):
1) Where the second round choice was NUPES (Mélenchon) versus RN (Le Pen)
- 72% of Ensemble (Macron) voters abstained, 16% voted NUPES, 12% voted RN.
- 58% of LR (Pécresse) voters abstained, 30% voted RN, 12% voted NUPES
2) Where the second round choice was NUPES versus Ensemble,
- 52% of RN voters abstained, 30% voted NUPES, 18% voted Ensemble.
- 35% of LR voters abstained, 60% voted Ensemble, 5% voted NUPES
3) Strangely, I haven't been able to find similar figures for NUPES or LR voters in Ensemble vs. RN contests. Would be interested if anybody has seen anything like that.
4) Only 8% of NUPES candidates and 11% of Ensemble candidates beaten in the first round explicitly called on "their" 1st round voters to vote against the RN.
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Thanks, yes, I misunderstood drood's question, it of course makes more sense to compare votes for the same election: my focus as ever was on past beefs.
 
PsB said:
That was the presidential election. Some figures for the general election yesterday (note: these numbers are from an IPSOS poll, representative sample n=4000, interviews between June 15 and June 18, i.e. these must be intentions rather than actual votes):
1) Where the second round choice was NUPES (Mélenchon) versus RN (Le Pen)
- 72% of Ensemble (Macron) voters abstained, 16% voted NUPES, 12% voted RN.
- 58% of LR (Pécresse) voters abstained, 30% voted RN, 12% voted NUPES
2) Where the second round choice was NUPES versus Ensemble,
- 52% of RN voters abstained, 30% voted NUPES, 18% voted Ensemble.
- 35% of LR voters abstained, 60% voted Ensemble, 5% voted NUPES
3) Strangely, I haven't been able to find similar figures for NUPES or LR voters in Ensemble vs. RN contests. Would be interested if anybody has seen anything like that.
4) Only 8% of NUPES candidates and 11% of Ensemble candidates beaten in the first round explicitly called on "their" 1st round voters to vote against the RN.
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Re point 3, not quite the same thing, but related:

https://twitter.com/PhMarliere/status/1538853624876568579

Perhaps we lefties can't claim the moral high ground after all.
 
Bananahead said:
Well they certainly didn't use the term far-left on the lunchtime TV news.
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Les Insoumis (as such, ie without their current co-runners) were called decidedly far left at a time when social democrats (Parti Socialiste) were still present on the political map. Socialists having pretty much disappeared, Melenchon can’t really be compared to anyone on the left - he pretty much IS the left, at least for the time being. As far as his ‘programme’ goes, I tend to call it far left, but in truth it’s so far off anything realistic, I can’t even say it’s left or far left. Let’s just call it hot air.
 
droodzilla said:
Re point 3, not quite the same thing, but related:

https://twitter.com/PhMarliere/status/1538853624876568579

Perhaps we lefties can't claim the moral high ground after all.
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I honestly don’t want to! I think people should vote for who they want and I hate the Lesser Evil routine. My one hope is that this makes it harder for people to jump on their high horse when left voters decline to vote for their dogs hit candidates on the grounds that things could be even worse.
 
Does anyone know what's happening with the divvying up of government positions?

I'm seeing suggestions on Twitter that Macron is offering positions to representatives of National Rally (Le Pen's Party) as well as traditional right-wing Republicans, while freezing out the left-wing NUPES group.

Any truth in this?

Here's the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AQuatennens/status/1542183059944087554

My French isn't quite up to following the interview, though I can make out plenty of individual words. What does it all mean?
 
droodzilla said:
Does anyone know what's happening with the divvying up of government positions?

I'm seeing suggestions on Twitter that Macron is offering positions to representatives of National Rally (Le Pen's Party) as well as traditional right-wing Republicans, while freezing out the left-wing NUPES group.

Any truth in this?

Here's the tweet:

https://twitter.com/AQuatennens/status/1542183059944087554

My French isn't quite up to following the interview, though I can make out plenty of individual words. What does it all mean?
Click to expand...

Not government positions: just various second line positions in the permanent commissions of the newly elected assembly. They were voting today on commission vice-presidencies and "questeurs" (they apparently control the assembly's operating budget). Quatennens was pushing his usual talking point that LREM/LR/RN are all in it together and ganging up on poor NUPES, which is therefore the only real opposition to Macron.

There are a lot of arcane rules plus some unwritten "usages", and this vote was complicated by the fact that 2 ecologists (Rousseau & Lucas) pulled a fast one by putting themselves forward as candidates at the last minute, without telling their NUPES friends it seems. Net result: neither of them were elected as the NUPES group didn't all vote for them - they only got 30 votes. The final result for the VP election was 1 non-NUPES socialist,1 LFI, 2 Macron compatible, 2 RN. The questeurs positions went to the centrists and the right (Ciotti). Quatennens, doing the arithmetic, believes some LREM votes went to the RN candidates, which seems obvious as the RN only has 90 MPs and got 290 votes.

Up tomorrow: commission presidencies!!!
 
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