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French Presidential Election 2022

If Macron is clever enough, he will pick a centre-left, environment-friendly PM and a socialist education minister.
That would bring him social peace for a while.
 
Then there's the third round:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/el...ft-split-over-union-centred-around-melenchon/

If there is one occasion for the left to unite, this is it. Following his results at the Présidentielle, Mélenchon is the favourite to gather the entire left under him. A logical move, but in effect, this might mean the last nail in the coffin for the good old Parti Socialiste, its candidate Anne Hidalgo having scored a sensational 1.75 percent. Pop corn times ahead.

I would even welcome Mélenchon as Premier Ministre. While he can't rule France, he can maybe be a good opponent to Macron, at least PR-wise. Journos will love it !
 
Make no mistake, Mélanchon has a tremendous experience of institutions. And he used to be a senator too.
But I don’t see Macron picking him as PM, or him accepting the job for that matter.
 
Ah, but that’s different: if LFI (or some alliance) has a majority at the assembly, then it’s not up to Macron (not really) to choose him. It would then be a de facto nomination.
 
The left has finally got its act together – in France. Watch out, Macron and Le Pen
Cole Stangler

Few thought the day would ever come, but an earthquake is about to shake up French politics. Ahead of next month’s legislative elections, France’s famously fractious leftwing parties have decided to join forces, with Europe Ecology-the Greens (EELV), the Socialist party (PS) and the French Communist party (PCF) coalescing around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left populist La France Insoumise (LFI) and uniting around a common set of candidates.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/13/france-left-macron-le-pen-jean-luc-melenchon
 
gavreid said:
The left has finally got its act together – in France. Watch out, Macron and Le Pen
Cole Stangler

Few thought the day would ever come, but an earthquake is about to shake up French politics. Ahead of next month’s legislative elections, France’s famously fractious leftwing parties have decided to join forces, with Europe Ecology-the Greens (EELV), the Socialist party (PS) and the French Communist party (PCF) coalescing around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left populist La France Insoumise (LFI) and uniting around a common set of candidates.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/13/france-left-macron-le-pen-jean-luc-melenchon
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Erm, as much as I'd want the new alliance to succeed, the article smells a bit of wishful thinking, written by a young journalist who is not aware of all the past alliances of the left in France, none of which has lasted very long.

The one of 1978 was cobbled together for the sole purpose of increasing chances for the upcoming legislative elections. The plan failed spectacularly, as the electorate soon identified it as what it was, a joke (Mitterrand and communist Marchais could never stand each other).

Before the 1981 Présidentielle, Mitterrand flirted with the communists, even promising them ministries if they would support him. Communists eventually did get four ministries, not significant ones of course, only to get fired about a year later, when Mitterrand didn't need their support any longer.

What the new Melenchon alliance will essentially do is bury what remains of the socialists. Remember, Melenchon's score is essentially the result of a massive protest vote against Marine le Pen. Taken aout of this context, the electorate is far from convinced of Melenchon as a responsible politician - unless he grows up now, in the manner of green Joschka Fischer in Germany.

Marine le Pen will remain a threat, I fear she might well make an even better result in five years time. I very much hope former PM Edouard Philippe will emerge from his hibernation.
 
gavreid said:
The left has finally got its act together – in France. Watch out, Macron and Le Pen
Cole Stangler

Few thought the day would ever come, but an earthquake is about to shake up French politics. Ahead of next month’s legislative elections, France’s famously fractious leftwing parties have decided to join forces, with Europe Ecology-the Greens (EELV), the Socialist party (PS) and the French Communist party (PCF) coalescing around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left populist La France Insoumise (LFI) and uniting around a common set of candidates.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/13/france-left-macron-le-pen-jean-luc-melenchon
Click to expand...
The earthquake Mr Stangler describes looks like a 3.0 on the Richter scale: a unified left wing list is not an unusual feature of parliamentary elections under the 5th Republic.

There are very few polls available, and Macron has not yet announced his new PM and government, so a lot can still happen. But the most likely outcome seems to be a Macron majority, reduced from the landslide of 2017, but still enough to get legislation passed. It is highly unlikely that this earthquake will remodel the political scenery, let alone shake up politics. Abstention is likely to be high. A minority of the PS and EELV voters will go with Macron's list rather than support LFI, and Le Pen's list is likely to do well in the NE and SE of the country, so it may come to a triangular vote in some districts (all lists with more than 12.5% of registered voters can go through to the second round).

Mélenchon has played his cards very, very well: by running a good, punchy campaign he took an early lead on the left, despite some embarrassment over Ukraine etc. The polls before the first round of the presidential election positioned LFI as the "useful vote", ensuring a number of frustrated Socialist and Green voters cast their votes with LFI rather than their own lackluster candidates. It wasn't enough to get him to the second round, but the "vote utile" gave him an extra 5, maybe 10 points and put him in a dominant position for the negotiations with the PS and EELV - these voters were now his own. He has destroyed what was left of the Socialist Party, secured the funding of his party for the next 5 years and ensured his lieutenants all get secured positions. In effect, he has treated the Socialists the way the Socialists treated the far left parties for so many years. LFI will enjoy a comfortable minority position in Parliament. Mélenchon will take that as a good enough win. He is 70, he just announced he would not run again in Marseille, and he will probably concentrate on designating a successor and consolidating LFI as the main left wing opposition in France.

EDIT: just saw in a regional paper that the % of voters saying they will vote for a left wing candidate dropped from 35% to 28% since NUPES was formed. It's only one poll, but it would align with the idea some PS and EELV voters will not vote for NUPES: https://www.vosgesmatin.fr/election...n-verra-de-maniere-plus-nette-apres-le-20-mai
 
Seanm said:
lol

https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1527264643328225281?s=21&t=Y8d9HdTorQKQ-C26bisM-g

Although what happens when the Macronists and the fascists decide to stop fighting over the right wing vote and work together to beat the left?
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Likewise, what happens if the Mélenchonists and the fascists decide to gang up on those awful centrists? They share some ideas on the EU, retirement age, minimum wage increases, etc. According to this poll, the same thing: Macron's alliance has an absolute majority of seats. But it's very early days. The campaign hasn't really started and they haven't even announced the government yet.
The comments below the stats are funny. Some people seem to struggle with the concept of a two-round election.
 
PsB said:
Likewise, what happens if the Mélenchonists and the fascists decide to gang up on those awful centrists? They share some ideas on the EU, retirement age, minimum wage increases, etc. According to this poll, the same thing: Macron's alliance has an absolute majority of seats. But it's very early days. The campaign hasn't really started and they haven't even announced the government yet.
The comments below the stats are funny. Some people seem to struggle with the concept of a two-round election.
Click to expand...
Lol far right and far left to join forces as they have so often throughout history.
 
Seanm said:
Lol far right and far left to join forces as they have so often throughout history.
Click to expand...
Yes, le reverse furet Ribbentrop-Molotov. Almost as funny as your speculation about Manu teaming up with Marine.
 
PsB said:
Yes, le reverse furet Ribbentrop-Molotov. Almost as funny as your speculation about Manu teaming up with Marine.
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They've already teamed up to accuse the left of loving Islam and corrupting the nation's young people. If the left continue to scare them I think we'll find they can cooperate on quite a lot of other things as well.
 
Seanm said:
They've already teamed up to accuse the left of loving Islam and corrupting the nation's young people. If the left continue to scare them I think we'll find they can cooperate on quite a lot of other things as well.
Click to expand...
For every Islamo-gauchisme storm-in-a-teacup, I can find you 2 or 3 other subjects where the distance between RN and NUPES positions is less than your preferred cigarette paper.
 
PsB said:
For every Islamo-gauchisme storm-in-a-teacup, I can find you 2 or 3 other subjects where the distance between RN and NUPES positions is less than your preferred cigarette paper.
Click to expand...
Sounds like you're trivialising the issue (unless I misunderstand your point). I doubt that many Muslims in France see the hostile environment as a storm in a teacup.

I assume that any overlap netween NUPES and RN is around the cost of living crisis, pensions and other bread and butter issues. If that's right, isn't there a fundamental difference between the two scenarios...

When Macron and his allies pander to anti-Muslim sentiment, they cede ground to the far-right and betray their own, purported, liberal values.

When NUPES and RN find common ground over the cost of living crisis, NUPES remains true to its core values and does not cede ground to the far-right. Unless, that is, NUPES throws Muslims under the bus too - but I'm not aware they're doing that.

Happy to be enlightened either way.
 
droodzilla said:
When Macron and his allies pander to anti-Muslim sentiment, they cede ground to the far-right and betray their own, purported, liberal values.
Click to expand...
The opposite is true, it's by doing nothing that they would properly cede ground to the far right.

Remember, the Samuel Paty case is still very much alive in many voter's minds. Personally I don't want to read such news ever again, I don't know about you. At the same time, voting far-right isn't the solution either.
 
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