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Coronavirus - the new strain

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Mullardman said:
Don't know if this has been raised. Is previous vaccination against pneumonia known to be any use against the pneumonia which appears to be causing a proportion of the deaths?
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No.
The virus appears to cause a pneumonitis which can rapidly lead to ARDS.
 
wacko said:
People see the threat of Covid 19 so differently because there are two separate groups:
1. For those under 55 it will be like getting a 'normal' flu. Sick for a week.
2. For those over 65 and/or impaired immunity there is a high chance of particularly serious pneumonia in an overloaded health system.
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That's a dangerous (if anyone's assuming that they will be safe) over-simplification of course, there will be considerable 'overlap' between these groups.
 
thebigfredc said:
LADIES & GENTLEMAN OF PF

Its important to listen to SeanlittleM regarding CV19 as he has a proven track record on here of forecasting the future correctly (Brexit-Remain, GE-Labour) and not the people below who are part of the BJ/Banks/Cummings axis (responsible for all of the worlds ills since 1750) and certainly not the so-called experts listed below who have clearly been recruited by the BJ sect thingy:

Chair
Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow, previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Kent; former Chair of the British Science Association and President of Universities UK from 2015 to 2017. Currently President of the Royal Society of Biology.

Non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
  • Sir Derek Myers, Chair of PHE’s Audit and Risk Committee
  • Poppy Jaman, a founding member of the City Mental Health Alliance
  • George Griffin, recently retired as a consultant physician and Professor of Infectious Diseases and Medicine at St George’s, University of London
Associate non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
Sian Griffiths, independent health consultant, Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Visiting Professor at the Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College, London

Just saying.
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Well, we've seen the recommendations, now it would be good to see their 'working out' and their reasoning behind the decisions.

People keep talking about 'herd immunity'. In the absence of a vaccine that requires the majority of people getting the virus and building up anti-bodies. Now you can argue that's going to happen anyway, and that may be correct, but the purpose of banning large groupings of people is - to use another popular phrase - to 'flatten the curve' and prevent the NHS from coming under intolerable strain. So I'd like to know why they've decided _not_ to adopt such a tactic. By continuing to allow large assemblies - such as football matches etc - it looks to me that they're risking the NHS being swamped in a few weeks time.
 
doctorf said:
No.
The virus appears to cause a pneumonitis which can rapidly lead to ARDS.
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An Italian critical care specialist said in an interview last night that it also causes myocarditis. A friend of mine became ill on a long haul flight four years ago, initially thinking he had a bad cold. Within a day of landing, he was on an ECMO machine, diagnosed with viral myocarditis . He was simply very lucky to land in a city outside the UK that had the treatment capability and an empty bed. Had he landed back in Britain or somewhere else, he might not have been so lucky.
 
thebigfredc said:
LADIES & GENTLEMAN OF PF

Its important to listen to SeanlittleM regarding CV19 as he has a proven track record on here of forecasting the future correctly (Brexit-Remain, GE-Labour) and not the people below who are part of the BJ/Banks/Cummings axis (responsible for all of the worlds ills since 1750) and certainly not the so-called experts listed below who have clearly been recruited by the BJ sect thingy:

Chair
Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow, previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Kent; former Chair of the British Science Association and President of Universities UK from 2015 to 2017. Currently President of the Royal Society of Biology.

Non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
  • Sir Derek Myers, Chair of PHE’s Audit and Risk Committee
  • Poppy Jaman, a founding member of the City Mental Health Alliance
  • George Griffin, recently retired as a consultant physician and Professor of Infectious Diseases and Medicine at St George’s, University of London
Associate non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
Sian Griffiths, independent health consultant, Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Visiting Professor at the Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College, London

Just saying.
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You’ve changed your tune Fred! You were a bit jittery before weren't you. Amazing what a national address from a great leader can do to revive the old Blitz spirit. He didn't even have to drive a JCB through a polystyrene wall with "Coronavirus" written on it!

I'm sure you're right. None of the experts you list there were actually on, and those that were seemed sceptical of the government's approach. Apart from the one from the UCL's Centre for Behaviour Change, who looked made up, so to speak. No doubt Dom and Boris are listening to all the right people. They're not the kind of people any of the European governments are listening to but what do they know!

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1238244080557133830?s=20
 
farfromthesun said:
Another bet I'm having today is that the Govt. approach will dramatically change once the Cheltenham Festival finishes this afternoon.
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I think they're coming across as uncertain and mixing Politics with Science is not a comfortable partnership. Hunt is encouraging the uncertainty so I wonder who will win? Science or Politics. Boris must be feeling anxious about their strategy and a little hemmed in.
 
Seanm said:
You’ve changed your tune Fred! You were a bit jittery before weren't you. Amazing what a national address from a great leader can do to revive the old Blitz spirit. He didn't even have to drive a JCB through a polystyrene wall with "Coronavirus" written on it!

I'm sure you're right. None of the experts you list there were actually on, and those that were seemed sceptical of the government's approach. Apart from the one from the UCL's Centre for Behaviour Change, who looked made up, so to speak. No doubt Dom and Boris are listening to all the right people. They're not the kind of people any of the European governments are listening to but what do they know!
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Unfortunately, I think the wake up call will only come when people, who were otherwise in good health, begin to die
 
wacko said:
I've read it 3 times but it doesn't change:
'Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said that worst case scenario planning projected that 80% of the country would contract the virus, with a 1% mortality rate. This equates to over 500,000 deaths in the UK.'
UK has 12m people aged 65 and over.
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Had 12m people aged 65 and over!
 
thebigfredc said:
LADIES & GENTLEMAN OF PF

Its important to listen to SeanlittleM regarding CV19 as he has a proven track record on here of forecasting the future correctly (Brexit-Remain, GE-Labour) and not the people below who are part of the BJ/Banks/Cummings axis (responsible for all of the worlds ills since 1750) and certainly not the so-called experts listed below who have clearly been recruited by the BJ sect thingy:

Chair
Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow, previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Kent; former Chair of the British Science Association and President of Universities UK from 2015 to 2017. Currently President of the Royal Society of Biology.

Non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
  • Sir Derek Myers, Chair of PHE’s Audit and Risk Committee
  • Poppy Jaman, a founding member of the City Mental Health Alliance
  • George Griffin, recently retired as a consultant physician and Professor of Infectious Diseases and Medicine at St George’s, University of London
Associate non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
Sian Griffiths, independent health consultant, Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Visiting Professor at the Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College, London

Just saying.
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Genuine question for you. You seem to be implying you think Johnson's government have got the response to this right. What then, is you feeling on all the other countries who are going much further than this? Have they all got it wrong? Why are we the only ones to realise that school closures (for instance) are not necessary? Is every other country full of idiots and we are blessed with science and political geniuses? I'm not having a dig, genuinely interested why you think we have got it right and everyone else has got it wrong. Especially as mathematical modelling applied to the virus spreading indicates mass gatherings and close proximity socialisation is a bad thing for transmission even just based on a simplistic probability model!
 
gavreid said:
Unfortunately, I think the wake up call will only come when people, who were otherwise in good health, begin to die
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I don't know. Much of London seems to be staying at home today. Maybe the Freakonomics people have included reverse psychology in their modelling.
 
gavreid said:
Unfortunately, I think the wake up call will only come when people, who were otherwise in good health, begin to die
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Is there any evidence that this is actually happening anywhere? Aside for the very old?

I'm enjoying the fact that anyone who is a public figure of any sort appear to get tested immediately they get a sniffle (e.g. Hudson-Odoi and his symptoms of a mild cold) and everyone else should just sit in their room and wait to see what happens and are actively discouraged from bothering the health service. My other half works in a public library visited daily by large numbers of elderly folk who, obviously, are all handling books and public computers etc., and there's been no special guidance from the council at all. I would have thought that if she contracted it then she would pose a far greater risk than a footballer surrounded by other young and fit people.
 
calorgas said:
Is there any evidence that this is actually happening anywhere? Aside for the very old?

I'm enjoying the fact that anyone who is a public figure of any sort appear to get tested immediately they get a sniffle (e.g. Hudson-Odoi and his symptoms of a mild cold) and everyone else should just sit in their room and wait to see what happens and are actively discouraged from bothering the health service. My other half works in a public library visited daily by large numbers of elderly folk who, obviously, are all handling books and public computers etc., and there's been no special guidance from the council at all. I would have thought that if she contracted it then she would pose a far greater risk than a footballer surrounded by other young and fit people.
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It's always the way of anything in society. The elite get treated completely differently, but we get told everyone is treated the same yet reality is completely at odds with that. My work colleague who has Covid-19 told me yesterday he had to wait 6 days to get tested and only then it was because he threatened to go down to A&E and make a nuisance of himself. The fact that he didn't have the energy to do that passed them by as they soon found him a test appointment when threatened with that. He said there was a definite attitude that they would have avoided testing him if possible... one less case on the database of course. As Johnson finally admitted last night we likely already have thousands of cases here... how many I doubt we'll ever really know.
 
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