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Coronavirus - the new strain

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Tony L said:
The timescale of vaccine development baffles me. I don’t understand why it is going to take so long. The DNA of this thing has already been pulled apart, modelled and analysed. I read somewhere that the Chinese are well on the way and are pretty much at the testing stage now, though they have mechanisms to get it to the public faster (i.e. less legislative restrictions). We may be able to buy it on bloody eBay before we see it here!
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Holy cow this is pretty much what Trump said in a meeting with vaccine specialists.


tones said:
That's the easy part, Tony, dismembering the thing. However, using that knowledge to make a vaccine that won't cure the disease by killing the patient is another thing altogether. A virus can't be killed, because, unlike a bacterium, it isn't living in the first place - it exists as a strange bit of complex organic chemistry, a half-way house between the living and the non-living. A vaccine has to be able to promote generation of the necessary antibodies in the immune system to resist the virus, and that's a matter for proper clinical trials, and they take time. Cutting corners could be a recipe for disaster. An authoritarian state such as China can take more risks than can a democratic state, and that may get them to an answer faster - or it may not.
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And this is pretty much what the specialists said...
 
thebiglebowski said:
Holy cow this is pretty much what Trump said in a meeting with vaccine specialists.
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No, mine was very clearly phrased as a question as it clearly isn’t my area of expertise. I was looking to try and better understand a situation where I clearly have no knowledge, which is something Trump has never done at any point in his life.
 
Alex S said:
It’ll be a real shame if the Premier League is cancelled with Liverpool one game away from the title won’t it.
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The world is in crisis both financially & physically so forgive me for not giving a flying **** about football at the moment & i'm a big fan who was looking forward to the Euro's in the summer.
 
Tony L said:
No, mine was very clearly phrased as a question as it clearly isn’t my area of expertise. I was looking to try and better understand a situation where I clearly have no knowledge, which is something Trump has never done at any point in his life.
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The use of a question mark would probably help then, rather than phrasing it as a statement.
 
Seanm said:
If you mean just in relation to this outbreak drood, a lot of academics feel that the universities are failing to show the necessary leadership on this because a) they’re too close to the government and b) they don’t want to get hit for refunds. I get the argument for schools staying open but it doesn’t hold for universities. Lectures seem like a great way to spread the virus amongst young people just as they’re getting ready to go and visit relatives for Easter. IMO universities should close for teaching but it looks like it will be left to staff and students to take the initiative.
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It was a general question, but I asked my supervisor the specific question too, making that very point. He thought it was unlikely that the university would stop face to face lectures unless it was specifically recommended by Public Health England (which, he claimed, has little interest in, or understanding of, universities). Make of that what you will.
 
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^PHE senior team seems to have all the right credentials in practical experience and academic qualifications. They would appear better at understanding health issues than in understanding universities, but I am not sure why that should in any way inhibit their abilities and advice in current circumstances?

<<Chair
Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow, previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Kent; former Chair of the British Science Association and President of Universities UK from 2015 to 2017. Currently President of the Royal Society of Biology.

Non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
  • Sir Derek Myers, Chair of PHE’s Audit and Risk Committee
  • Poppy Jaman, a founding member of the City Mental Health Alliance
  • George Griffin, recently retired as a consultant physician and Professor of Infectious Diseases and Medicine at St George’s, University of London
Associate non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
Sian Griffiths, independent health consultant, Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Visiting Professor at the Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College, London>>

...unless they are also in The Conspiracy to sell the NHS? That would appear fanciful at this time.
 
Newsnight was alarming. Government people keep talking about science and I’m pretty sure the science they’re talking about is of the Freakonomics variety. UK now a total outlier with regard to measures taken. Also the only one being run by a believer in the science of superforecasting. Hope this is coincidence.

Worth noting that the Nudge Unit, where I suspect a lot of the behavioural science is being done, had a hand in Universal Credit, scientifically proven to have been a complete success.
 
Seanm said:
Newsnight was alarming. Government people keep talking about science and I’m pretty sure the science they’re talking about is of the Freakonomics variety. UK now a total outlier with regard to measures taken. Also the only one being run by a believer in the science of superforecasting. Hope this is coincidence.

Worth noting that the Nudge Unit, where I suspect a lot of the behavioural science is being done, had a hand in Universal Credit, scientifically proven to have been a complete success.
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Perhaps you shouldn't take tweats like this too seriously...

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Don't know if this has been raised. Is previous vaccination against pneumonia known to be any use against the pneumonia which appears to be causing a proportion of the deaths?
 
Oh well. That's cheerful. :(

I'm digging in for a long period of contemplative gardening.. (if it ever stops blowing a bloody gale and raining.), plus decorating, solitary walks, listening to music, solitary boozing etc..

There does seem to be some logic to the Govt. tactic of 'flattening the curve' to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. However.. if your main defence is staying clear of everybody till it all goes away.. on the basis that you might not survive it whatever the NHS did.. the longer, flatter curve means that you have to hide for much longer.

It's being so cheerful as keeps me going... as Mona Lott would say...
 
I've read it 3 times but it doesn't change:
'Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said that worst case scenario planning projected that 80% of the country would contract the virus, with a 1% mortality rate. This equates to over 500,000 deaths in the UK.'
UK has 12m people aged 65 and over.
 
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People see the threat of Covid 19 so differently because there are two separate groups:
1. For those under 55 it will be like getting a 'normal' flu. Sick for a week.
2. For those over 65 and/or impaired immunity there is a high chance of particularly serious pneumonia in an overloaded health system.
 
Seanm said:
Newsnight was alarming. Government people keep talking about science and I’m pretty sure the science they’re talking about is of the Freakonomics variety. UK now a total outlier with regard to measures taken. Also the only one being run by a believer in the science of superforecasting. Hope this is coincidence.

Worth noting that the Nudge Unit, where I suspect a lot of the behavioural science is being done, had a hand in Universal Credit, scientifically proven to have been a complete success.
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LADIES & GENTLEMAN OF PF

Its important to listen to SeanlittleM regarding CV19 as he has a proven track record on here of forecasting the future correctly (Brexit-Remain, GE-Labour) and not the people below who are part of the BJ/Banks/Cummings axis (responsible for all of the worlds ills since 1750) and certainly not the so-called experts listed below who have clearly been recruited by the BJ sect thingy:

Chair
Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow, previously Vice-Chancellor of the University of Kent; former Chair of the British Science Association and President of Universities UK from 2015 to 2017. Currently President of the Royal Society of Biology.

Non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
  • Sir Derek Myers, Chair of PHE’s Audit and Risk Committee
  • Poppy Jaman, a founding member of the City Mental Health Alliance
  • George Griffin, recently retired as a consultant physician and Professor of Infectious Diseases and Medicine at St George’s, University of London
Associate non-executive PHE Advisory Board members
Sian Griffiths, independent health consultant, Emeritus Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Visiting Professor at the Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College, London

Just saying.
 
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Normally when a Muslim dies, people wash the body and wrap it in cotton cloth, followed by hand carrying into the grave. In Africa this was found to be an excellent way of spreading ebola, so mass graves are used as a way of avoiding these spreading stages
 
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