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Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

Discussion in 'off topic' started by gavreid, Apr 1, 2022.

  1. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Unfortunately the vaccines seems to be a lot less protective against the latest Omicrons. These numbers came from the states, where there is a larger pool of the unvaccinated, because the UK Government doesn't deem it important enough to record any longer
     
    tiggers and IanW like this.
  2. Gingerbeard

    Gingerbeard Ayup Me Duck

    There's far too much pessimism around Covid on here (glass half empty and all that) - all viruses weaken over time and with each strain, that's a given. Covid is no different, so it stands to reason that this would be the case. Omicron (which I had in March) although far more contagious was a weaker strain and didn't cause the same number of fatalities as Delta did. We're also now approaching 3 years' (December 2019 (maybe earlier) in China) of the world living with Covid and I believe most of the major epidemics in the past, without the benefit of modern science, only lasted around 3-4 years.

    Personally, I quit having the vaccines after having the second one last year. If others feel the need to keep having the boosters, that's up to them and I won't knock them for it, if they feel it helps them. Having caught Omicron I figured my immune system can take care of me from here on in.

    There will be other variants, we know that, I (and I assume the W.H.O) just don't see them being anywhere near on a par or as dangerous as those we have already experienced.
     
  3. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    The weekly update is in. The latest figure is 519 (12/9) currently (with 140 on mechanical ventilation) re 526 a week ago so we're probably at the bottom now, consistent with the Zoe report of increasing case numbers again. Another week should start to show the impact of the new school term on hospitalisations, which will play off against the booster programme in the coming weeks. The government has dropped its advertising campaign for boosters so let's hope that take up is not impacted too greatly by those who think that it's all over, BA.5 can still be pretty nasty.

    [​IMG]
     
    tiggers, IanW and Spike55 like this.
  4. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    This is true. During the omicron wave unvaccinated people were ten times as likely to be hospitalized as those vaccinated and boosted. However only 2.5 times as likely as those vaccinated but not boosted - I think therein lies a problem with the current approach, because Omicron occurred just months after the booster program rolled out in the US.

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/100596

    The vaccines are fantastic - but the current vaccines don't mark the end of Covid as a threat to health.
     
    tiggers, IanW and gavreid like this.
  5. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    This is a myth - each new mutation can go either way. In general the virus will become more transmissible, but that does not also prevent it from becoming more lethal, especially if the incubation period is longer (that is, if it has plenty of time to spread before it makes the host much sicker).

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-viruses-evolve-180975343/\
    Scroll to "Getting nicer — or nastier"
     
    kensalriser, twotone, Spike55 and 2 others like this.
  6. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Role of mathematical modelling in future pandemic response policy
    BMJ 2022; 378 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-070615 (Published 15 September 2022) Cite this as: BMJ 2022;378:e070615

    "However, much of the criticism modellers have received has been misplaced, a result of fundamental misunderstandings of the purpose of mathematical modelling, what it is capable of, and how its results should be interpreted. These misunderstandings result, in part, from failures in communication."
     
    tiggers and IanW like this.
  7. hc25036

    hc25036 pfm Member

    Two points if I may - while in general viruses do moderate over time (otherwise all life would have been wiped out eons ago) it is not a hard-wired biochemical fact and there is no reason to assume that there is not a COVID variation in the wings that could bite us very badly. Secondly, the ‘over time’ phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. We have no idea where we are in the the lifetime of the COVID pandemic.

    I’m not seeing pessimism here, rather good science-based sense that is, and has been, rather lacking in government. More power to gavreid’s elbow and I’m grateful that he keeps putting in the effort involved.
     
  8. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    This doesn't mean that the odd host species hasn't gone extinct. Humans have unusually low genetic diversity and too much close contact - traits that are more common with isolated island populations
     
    tiggers, Spike55 and hc25036 like this.
  9. barryb

    barryb pfm Member

    While loathe to add to any perceived pessimism, it's the concept of 'immune imprinting' that I find troublesome - that is, the immune systems response to a potential Covid infection is now predicated by the learned response stimulated by the vaccine. Hence why Omicron and variants have proven troubling, essentially evading some of this response. And so, the vax schedule has necessarily been updated.

    I will say my reading on this is very much amateur and gladly open to correction.

    It seems to me there's a couple of hail Mary's at play - a truly sterilizing intervention, or the virus doing us a good turn. Otherwise, it's the elderly, vulnerable and infirm that warrant concern.
     
    tiggers, Sonority, hc25036 and 2 others like this.
  10. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    And they're back, same time, same place, same channel. This week a public q&a session with Kit Yates on figures with a special focus on boosters...

     
    tiggers, hc25036 and IanW like this.
  11. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    The following points [ONS] are for the week ending 5 September 2022 for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

    • The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in England, trends were uncertain in Wales and Northern Ireland, and the percentage increased in Scotland.

    • In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 705,800 (95% credible interval: 657,500 to 755,300), equating to 1.29% of the population, or around 1 in 75 people.

    • In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 28,200 (95% credible interval: 20,200 to 37,700), equating to 0.93% of the population, or around 1 in 110 people.

    • In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 33,700 (95% credible interval: 23,800 to 44,800), equating to 1.84% of the population, or around 1 in 55 people.

    • In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 113,500 (95% credible interval: 93,900 to 136,000), equating to 2.16% of the population, or around 1 in 45 people.
     
  12. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    Are there any figures on what percentage of the population are bothering to test ? I'm sure that is falling.
    Over here in the US, with at home tests $10 a pop and PCR tests $100+ a pop, plus the lack of paid sick leave for many workers I think a large percentage of people don't bother to test, unless they get really sick.
    Hence, the only data I now trust is the wastewater sampling.
     
  13. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    no, nothing. The hospitalisations and the ONS data are the best I think but they lag infections by 1-2 weeks (at least in terms of ONS).
     
    sean99 likes this.
  14. russel

    russel ./_dazed_and_confused

    I had my fourth jab and will get a flu vaccine as well, I managed to avoid CoVid and have only had one cold during whole time of the pandemic so I think distancing and hygiene were successful for my family and I at least.
     
    tiggers and gavreid like this.
  15. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

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  16. billo

    billo pfm Member

    Had my 4th jab on Friday, Moderna this time, the injection site was tender for over a day. Just heard of the 3rd OAP to have Covid on the death cert. after going into hospital with an different ailment.
     
  17. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

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  18. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

  19. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

  20. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Biden's electioneering

    "But nearly 400 people a day continue to die from Covid in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Biden has asked Congress for $22.4bn more in funding to prepare for a potential case surge in the fall." [Guardian]
     
    tiggers likes this.

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