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Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

Surely that means that a small percentage of a very large number make up half of the hospital admissions (the vaccinated), but a much larger percentage of a small number make up the other half (the un-vaccinated). I’m sure More or Less have done this or similar. It’s pretty good news really as it shows the efficacy of the vaccines, that you’re massively less likely to end up in hospital if you’re vaccinated than if you aren’t.

Unfortunately the vaccines seems to be a lot less protective against the latest Omicrons. These numbers came from the states, where there is a larger pool of the unvaccinated, because the UK Government doesn't deem it important enough to record any longer
 
That seems like a very bold prediction given how they were blindsided by Omicron less than a year ago. I very much hope we are toward the tail end of the pandemic, but ISTM that nobody knows what the next phase will be.

There's far too much pessimism around Covid on here (glass half empty and all that) - all viruses weaken over time and with each strain, that's a given. Covid is no different, so it stands to reason that this would be the case. Omicron (which I had in March) although far more contagious was a weaker strain and didn't cause the same number of fatalities as Delta did. We're also now approaching 3 years' (December 2019 (maybe earlier) in China) of the world living with Covid and I believe most of the major epidemics in the past, without the benefit of modern science, only lasted around 3-4 years.

Personally, I quit having the vaccines after having the second one last year. If others feel the need to keep having the boosters, that's up to them and I won't knock them for it, if they feel it helps them. Having caught Omicron I figured my immune system can take care of me from here on in.

There will be other variants, we know that, I (and I assume the W.H.O) just don't see them being anywhere near on a par or as dangerous as those we have already experienced.
 
The weekly update is in. The latest figure is 519 (12/9) currently (with 140 on mechanical ventilation) re 526 a week ago so we're probably at the bottom now, consistent with the Zoe report of increasing case numbers again. Another week should start to show the impact of the new school term on hospitalisations, which will play off against the booster programme in the coming weeks. The government has dropped its advertising campaign for boosters so let's hope that take up is not impacted too greatly by those who think that it's all over, BA.5 can still be pretty nasty.

 
Surely that means that a small percentage of a very large number make up half of the hospital admissions (the vaccinated), but a much larger percentage of a small number make up the other half (the un-vaccinated). I’m sure More or Less have done this or similar. It’s pretty good news really as it shows the efficacy of the vaccines, that you’re massively less likely to end up in hospital if you’re vaccinated than if you aren’t.

This is true. During the omicron wave unvaccinated people were ten times as likely to be hospitalized as those vaccinated and boosted. However only 2.5 times as likely as those vaccinated but not boosted - I think therein lies a problem with the current approach, because Omicron occurred just months after the booster program rolled out in the US.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/100596

The vaccines are fantastic - but the current vaccines don't mark the end of Covid as a threat to health.
 
all viruses weaken over time and with each strain, that's a given. Covid is no different, so it stands to reason that this would be the case.

This is a myth - each new mutation can go either way. In general the virus will become more transmissible, but that does not also prevent it from becoming more lethal, especially if the incubation period is longer (that is, if it has plenty of time to spread before it makes the host much sicker).

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-viruses-evolve-180975343/\
Scroll to "Getting nicer — or nastier"
 
Role of mathematical modelling in future pandemic response policy
BMJ 2022; 378 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-070615 (Published 15 September 2022) Cite this as: BMJ 2022;378:e070615

"However, much of the criticism modellers have received has been misplaced, a result of fundamental misunderstandings of the purpose of mathematical modelling, what it is capable of, and how its results should be interpreted. These misunderstandings result, in part, from failures in communication."
 
There's far too much pessimism around Covid on here (glass half empty and all that) - all viruses weaken over time and with each strain, that's a given. Covid is no different, so it stands to reason that this would be the case. Omicron (which I had in March) although far more contagious was a weaker strain and didn't cause the same number of fatalities as Delta did. We're also now approaching 3 years' (December 2019 (maybe earlier) in China) of the world living with Covid and I believe most of the major epidemics in the past, without the benefit of modern science, only lasted around 3-4 years.

Personally, I quit having the vaccines after having the second one last year. If others feel the need to keep having the boosters, that's up to them and I won't knock them for it, if they feel it helps them. Having caught Omicron I figured my immune system can take care of me from here on in.

There will be other variants, we know that, I (and I assume the W.H.O) just don't see them being anywhere near on a par or as dangerous as those we have already experienced.

Two points if I may - while in general viruses do moderate over time (otherwise all life would have been wiped out eons ago) it is not a hard-wired biochemical fact and there is no reason to assume that there is not a COVID variation in the wings that could bite us very badly. Secondly, the ‘over time’ phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. We have no idea where we are in the the lifetime of the COVID pandemic.

I’m not seeing pessimism here, rather good science-based sense that is, and has been, rather lacking in government. More power to gavreid’s elbow and I’m grateful that he keeps putting in the effort involved.
 
While loathe to add to any perceived pessimism, it's the concept of 'immune imprinting' that I find troublesome - that is, the immune systems response to a potential Covid infection is now predicated by the learned response stimulated by the vaccine. Hence why Omicron and variants have proven troubling, essentially evading some of this response. And so, the vax schedule has necessarily been updated.

I will say my reading on this is very much amateur and gladly open to correction.

It seems to me there's a couple of hail Mary's at play - a truly sterilizing intervention, or the virus doing us a good turn. Otherwise, it's the elderly, vulnerable and infirm that warrant concern.
 
The following points [ONS] are for the week ending 5 September 2022 for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

  • The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in England, trends were uncertain in Wales and Northern Ireland, and the percentage increased in Scotland.

  • In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 705,800 (95% credible interval: 657,500 to 755,300), equating to 1.29% of the population, or around 1 in 75 people.

  • In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 28,200 (95% credible interval: 20,200 to 37,700), equating to 0.93% of the population, or around 1 in 110 people.

  • In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 33,700 (95% credible interval: 23,800 to 44,800), equating to 1.84% of the population, or around 1 in 55 people.

  • In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 113,500 (95% credible interval: 93,900 to 136,000), equating to 2.16% of the population, or around 1 in 45 people.
 
The following points [ONS] are for the week ending 5 September 2022 for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

  • The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in England, trends were uncertain in Wales and Northern Ireland, and the percentage increased in Scotland.

  • In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 705,800 (95% credible interval: 657,500 to 755,300), equating to 1.29% of the population, or around 1 in 75 people.

  • In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 28,200 (95% credible interval: 20,200 to 37,700), equating to 0.93% of the population, or around 1 in 110 people.

  • In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 33,700 (95% credible interval: 23,800 to 44,800), equating to 1.84% of the population, or around 1 in 55 people.

  • In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 113,500 (95% credible interval: 93,900 to 136,000), equating to 2.16% of the population, or around 1 in 45 people.

Are there any figures on what percentage of the population are bothering to test ? I'm sure that is falling.
Over here in the US, with at home tests $10 a pop and PCR tests $100+ a pop, plus the lack of paid sick leave for many workers I think a large percentage of people don't bother to test, unless they get really sick.
Hence, the only data I now trust is the wastewater sampling.
 
Are there any figures on what percentage of the population are bothering to test ? I'm sure that is falling.
Over here in the US, with at home tests $10 a pop and PCR tests $100+ a pop, plus the lack of paid sick leave for many workers I think a large percentage of people don't bother to test, unless they get really sick.
Hence, the only data I now trust is the wastewater sampling.

no, nothing. The hospitalisations and the ONS data are the best I think but they lag infections by 1-2 weeks (at least in terms of ONS).
 
I had my fourth jab and will get a flu vaccine as well, I managed to avoid CoVid and have only had one cold during whole time of the pandemic so I think distancing and hygiene were successful for my family and I at least.
 
Had my 4th jab on Friday, Moderna this time, the injection site was tender for over a day. Just heard of the 3rd OAP to have Covid on the death cert. after going into hospital with an different ailment.
 
Biden's electioneering

"But nearly 400 people a day continue to die from Covid in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Biden has asked Congress for $22.4bn more in funding to prepare for a potential case surge in the fall." [Guardian]
 


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