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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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^ haven't there been studies that show that because vaccinated carry a lower viral load they are less likely to pass it on ?
In any case I'll take the 25% chance over the 38% chance in the above study.
 
wacko said:
^ haven't there been studies that show that because vaccinated carry a lower viral load they are less likely to pass it on ?
In any case I'll take the 25% chance over the 38% chance in the above study.
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possibly not with Delta, I can't remember
 
paulfromcamden said:
BBC story today claims that vaccinated individuals are just as infectious as unvaccinated.

That's a bit of a bugger.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59077036
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Interesting - focus of the study is household settings but they’re clearly drawing out more general implications. I wonder how much it changes the existing picture WRT to the infectiousness of vaccinated people. Might not be all bad news if it highlights the futility of chasing sterilising immunity with boosters.
 
Some people may have stopped getting follow up pcr tests after the Immensa scandal. The graph shows the fraction of positive ltf tests unmatched to pcr

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FC0TExWX0AE1sjL?format=png&name=900x900

Thousands of people with COVID-19 are taking tests that will never be analysed, warn government docs marked "official sensitive" Our "world beating" testing programme has a 185,000 swab backlog and is so stretched it's sending tests to labs in Italy and Germany

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1305047753983225858/photo/1
 
Seanm said:
expert reaction to study on household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 looking at vaccination status and variant type
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...oking-at-vaccination-status-and-variant-type/
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Direct from the analysis of the report:

1. Delta is able to spread between vaccinated people in a way previous variants did not. Virus levels are similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals but fall faster in vaccinated people.
2. There is evidence of waning with a greater risk of infection the longer after the second dose of vaccine.
3. Vaccinated household contacts have a significant risk of infection and NO requirement to isolate if a household contact should be urgently reconsidered.
4. Importantly, vaccination:
• protects against infection;
• protects against adverse outcomes;
• reduces transmission of COVID.

Points of interest to me:

1. Was brought up by @Debs and @hc25036 some time ago from the science perspective were that the virus has similar levels in vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but then falls faster. This has now been borne out by the data, so go with the science from the experts from the outset.
2. If someone has been infected then isolating them in a household should be considered. And back to my pet favourite, good ventilation will reduce the risk of further infection.
 
IanW said:
Direct from the analysis of the report:

1. Delta is able to spread between vaccinated people in a way previous variants did not. Virus levels are similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals but fall faster in vaccinated people.
2. There is evidence of waning with a greater risk of infection the longer after the second dose of vaccine.
3. Vaccinated household contacts have a significant risk of infection and NO requirement to isolate if a household contact should be urgently reconsidered.
4. Importantly, vaccination:
• protects against infection;
• protects against adverse outcomes;
• reduces transmission of COVID.

Points of interest to me:

1. Was brought up by @Debs and @hc25036 some time ago from the science perspective were that the virus has similar levels in vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but then falls faster. This has now been borne out by the data, so go with the science from the experts from the outset.
2. If someone has been infected then isolating them in a household should be considered. And back to my pet favourite, good ventilation will reduce the risk of further infection.
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Yes, although without wanting to re-litigate all that I do think it's important to acknowledge that the catastrophist take on vaccination and infection was itself being driven (outside of PFM) by scientific experts (the usual suspects). It's never actually been advisable or even possible to simply "go with the science from the experts from the outset" because the science has been contested from the outset and the experts at loggerheads. Non-experts don't deal directly with science, we deal with "media-science", and that's a gnarly thing.

As for isolating within the household that will be a matter of individual risk assessment for some, but for most people it's not a realistic option. That's not to dismiss the significance of your pet favourite, which seems important in all kinds of settings, but it does point back to mine as well (work, sick pay, testing): better if it doesn't get into the household in the first place.
 
Seanm said:
Yes, although without wanting to re-litigate all that I do think it's important to acknowledge that the catastrophist take on vaccination and infection was itself being driven (outside of PFM) by scientific experts (the usual suspects). It's never actually been advisable or even possible to simply "go with the science from the experts from the outset" because the science has been contested from the outset and the experts at loggerheads. Non-experts don't deal directly with science, we deal with "media-science", and that's a gnarly thing.
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To an extent I have over simplified the process. It is difficult as knowing which scientists we should believe for the public as it has been hard enough for scientists. And right at the start very little was known about the virus. But as time went on more and more was learnt and then it became clearer which scientists were giving us good advice. I read various comments from virologists about what they would and would not do, and they were pretty much in agreement (just based on where they sat on their personal risk scale). So it became clearer backed up by data and consistency of scientific analysis) as to what we could do to minimise risk.

As for isolating within the household that will be a matter of individual risk assessment for some, but for most people it's not a realistic option. That's not to dismiss the significance of your pet favourite, which seems important in all kinds of settings, but it does point back to mine as well (work, sick pay, testing): better if it doesn't get into the household in the first place.
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Yes, I fully accept that for most people isolating in a house will be difficult or impossible. But that doesn't stop that being good advice for those that can as that will reduce the number of cases.

I have focused on the engineering solutions to the problems posed by the virus, as that is what I understand. Whereas you have focused on the human behavioural side, which I agree with, but have much less feel for how it could all work. So it is good that others are posting about other areas of relevance.
 
@IanW has awoken me from early hibernation, and thinking about these posts makes me realise that the most significant advantage (if it is one) that scientsts like @Debs and I have is that we can identify reasonably well what is basic science and therefore can be (usually) relied on and what is expert (or not) interpretation and needs to be thought about and maybe treated with caution until much more is known.

The point about there being some - even if short-lived - viral load in vaccinated individuals seems obvious to me, whereas waning of protection is affected by too many factors to be dogmatic until the evidence is sufficient to draw proper conclusions.
 
The NHS faces a “mass exodus” of GPs, experts have warned as figures reveal nearly one in four are nearing retirement amid a growing row over staff shortages and access to family doctors.

Official data show that 23% of family doctors in England – or more than 6,000 – are 55 or over and expected to quit within the next few years. The average age at which doctors retire is now 59, and only one in 10 is under 35. The number of doctors retiring early has more than trebled since 2008.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-mass-exodus-gps-doctors-england-experts-warn
 
gavreid said:
"There is a general perception that this is all under control now."
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I think that's largely true. The other side is that I have friends with chronic health conditions who have stopped a lot of activities because the end of social distancing, mask wearing etc means they no longer feel its safe for them to participate.

I wonder what's going to happen longterm as covid becomes endemic. The current vaccines seem to be doing a brilliant job of reducing the severity of symptoms but it does seem to have led to a degree of fatalism. Speaking to colleagues at work yesterday someone shrugged and said 'well I guess we'll all get it at some point'.
 
paulfromcamden said:
I think that's largely true. The other side is that I have friends with chronic health conditions who have stopped a lot of activities because the end of social distancing, mask wearing etc means they no longer feel its safe for them to participate.

I wonder what's going to happen longterm as covid becomes endemic. The current vaccines seem to be doing a brilliant job of reducing the severity of symptoms but it does seem to have led to a degree of fatalism. Speaking to colleagues at work yesterday someone shrugged and said 'well I guess we'll all get it at some point'.
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I still think we're looking at a minimum of five years to be able to answer that question. I agree, I think we will all get it, and probably more than once in that time.
 
I think everyone will get it too, and I don’t really see a way around it. The kind of long term changes we’ve discussed on here would make a difference as to how often we get it, and how bad the consequences are for the NHS. Can’t see them happening under a Tory government.

On a more positive note, it seems that breakthrough symptomatic infections following vaccination do give your antibodies a big and long-lasting boost, so it may not be that we're coming down with it once a year:

https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1453956056543944713?s=20
 
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