Enfield boy
pfm Member
Another Boris U-turn coming?
43 941 cases, 207 new deaths and 865 admissions.
I’m not liking these new daily figures.
I heard BJ's dad saying he voted to Remain.
Last Wednesday there were 49139 new cases, so it does seem that the number of new cases is dropping quickly, albeit still big numbers.I’m not liking these new daily figures.
Number of new admissions looks to have reached its peak, but the number of deaths, as I stated yesterday, is unfortunately very likely to continue rising as it follows the number of new admissions around a week ago.
Last Wednesday there were 49139 new cases, so it does seem that the number of new cases is dropping quickly, albeit still big numbers.
Number of new admissions looks to have reached its peak, but the number of deaths, as I stated yesterday, is unfortunately very likely to continue rising as it follows the number of new admissions around a week ago.
Another Boris U-turn coming?
Clearly they are the least reliable of the three datasets, but changes in the week to week variations have often given a good indication as to what then happens to the number of admissions and the deaths. So currently I am seeing the case data as a good indicator that number of admissions are likely to drop.There have been a few false flats that have caught people out over the past few months
Clearly they are the least reliable of the three datasets, but changes in the week to week variations have often given a good indication as to what then happens to the number of admissions and the deaths. So currently I am seeing the case data as a good indicator that number of admissions are likely to drop.
I am hoping that this is the start of something like the BBC article that @Andrew C! posted in #880 :I think they will too but I also think there's likely to be high case numbers for a long time. The reported case numbers are a very unreliable measurement - especially now PHE is no more
Has to do with assumptions regarding waning immunity, behaviour change and their interaction, all very uncertain apparently. This is a helpful thread on the latest SPI-M-O modelling, looking at Warwick, Imperial and Bristol models as well as LSHTM:I am hoping that this is the start of something like the BBC article that @Andrew C! posted in #880 :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739
At least for the rest of the year. Next year the figures look a bit odd as cases and deaths are high and there is no clear set of reasons as to why this could happen.
Thanks for posting the links.Has to do with assumptions regarding waning immunity, behaviour change and their interaction, all very uncertain apparently. This is a helpful thread on the latest SPI-M-O modelling, looking at Warwick, Imperial and Bristol models as well as LSHTM:
https://twitter.com/edmhill/status/1451684475901972480?s=21
The big wave in ‘22 shown in the graph in the BBC article assumes a slow return to normal behaviour: assuming a speedier return results in a flatter but longer wave. Sage conclude though that slower is better as it gives us more time to develop our understanding of several variables and to make evidence-based decisions.
Twitter-based modeller James Ward is concerned that a big drop in cases now may be building up trouble for January and Feb.
https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1453405370811097090?s=21
Which makes me think more and more that (apologies to all who have had enough of me mentioning this) that ventilation of buildings is extremely important in all this, as it reduces transmission, no matter the behaviour of individuals or groups and has other significant benefits to individuals, communities and companies.
Well beyond me as to whether the Do-You-Want-Your-Deaths-Now-Or-Later pattern reflects limitations of the models or the fundamental realities of disease dynamics as we move into endemicity, but one way or another I'm sure it's informing policy, for better or worse. Easy to imagine the rhetorical power of some of these graphs if you wanted to make an argument for doing nothing now.Thanks for posting the links.
Many good points made (including the very relevant changes in data collection due to half term and fewer children being tested), but it really shows that whilst we have all this data and have developed statistical models, their remains a large uncertainty in any predictions, and this gets worse as a function of time into the predicted future.
I think that I have been overly optimistic as to the quality of the statistical models. With the enormous amount of data available (albeit with varying levels of confidence an relevance)I have been expecting the use of kalman or Bayesian filters etc to help determine core simulation parameters more effectively than has been evidenced.
Underlying the predictions there is a core pattern of lower cases now and higher cases later, or higher cases now and lower cases later. Almost as if most of the measures that have been and are being put in place just move the cases around to different age groups and different times of the future. Which makes me think more and more that (apologies to all who have had enough of me mentioning this) that ventilation of buildings is extremely important in all this, as it reduces transmission, no matter the behaviour of individuals or groups and has other significant benefits to individuals, communities and companies.