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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Seeker_UK said:
It's about being considerate to others.
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Clearly, however the moral implications vis-a-vis obligation, duty etc aren't clear to me yet. When I said it looks like a sort of supererogation I meant that while a good thing to do, it may not be morally demanded, required. And from a consequentialist view (I am a utilitarian) there are costs as well as benefits to consider. But I haven't thought about it at all really.
 
Just be glad you're not in India
Anecdotal I know, but my wife was speaking to a friend a couple of days ago - someone she knew had been worried about his mother back in India so had travelled over. His mother was fine when he arrived but then contracted covid and died within 10 days, subsequently he contracted it too and again died within 10 days. Late 40's, so presumably would have had at least one vaccination here, leaves a wife and teenager in the UK.
 
mentalp said:
Just be glad you're not in India
Anecdotal I know, but my wife was speaking to a friend a couple of days ago - someone she knew had been worried about his mother back in India so had travelled over. His mother was fine when he arrived but then contracted covid and died within 10 days, subsequently he contracted it too and again died within 10 days. Late 40's, so presumably would have had at least one vaccination here, leaves a wife and teenager in the UK.
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That's a shocker!
 
In The Guardian’s report of PMQs (I haven’t watched it) Starmer makes a point which has been bugging me

Starmer says the rate of the Delta variant is higher here than in other countries.
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Why is Delta so strong here and not in the USA and the EU, where there are also large Indian populations? Any suggestions?

We were also hit early and hard by alpha - as Oscar Wild said, once may be regarded as misfortune, twice looks like carelessness.
 
tiggers said:
Because the vaccine is far from 100% effective against Delta, because if I still get infected even if I don't get as ill as I might have done before I have no idea the vaccine's effect on preventing Long Covid (and nor does anyone else yet), because even if I get infected and I'm OK I could pass it on to someone else.... and so on. The vaccine is a big help, but it is not a 100% solution.
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All that I have read suggests if you have had both doses of the vaccine the protection against severe illness, hospitalization and death from the Delta variant is very high.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pa...t-most-worrisome-yet-vaccines-still-effective
"The Pfizer shot was 96% effective, and the AstraZeneca vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalization after two doses."
 
mandryka said:
Why is Delta so strong here and not in the USA and the EU, where there are also large Indian populations? Any suggestions?
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It's just timing. Delta is growing rapidly in the US, 10% last time I saw but it'll take longer for the fraction of Delta in the US to affect the nationwide statistics I think...
 
sean99 said:
All that I have read suggests if you have had both doses of the vaccine the protection against severe illness, hospitalization and death from the Delta variant is very high.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pa...t-most-worrisome-yet-vaccines-still-effective
"The Pfizer shot was 96% effective, and the AstraZeneca vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalization after two doses."
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Vaccination is about the population rather than the individual. Gambling on personal immunity is a fools game if you have underlying problems and significant responsibilities. The efficacy is an average taken from a much broader distribution.
 
mandryka said:
Why is Delta so strong here and not in the USA and the EU, where there are also large Indian populations? Any suggestions?
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Maybe because the UK has a big pool of single dose so far, who are fairly immune to Alpha, but not Delta, so it has a big advantage.
The half vaccinated stage is the most dangerous for new vaccine avoiding variants developing
 
davidsrsb said:
Maybe because the UK has a big pool of single dose so far, who are fairly immune to Alpha, but not Delta, so it has a big advantage.
The half vaccinated stage is the most dangerous for new vaccine avoiding variants developing
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Their partial immunity to alpha makes them more vulnerable to delta.

I don't understand really, does catching alpha in some way stop you catching delta. The people in the USA and EU are all busy catching alpha.
 
jimbob75 said:
Certainly an argument to be had. But in my opinion not something to be undertaken without proper thought and balance against risk. To quote your link:

Prof Calum Semple, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said: “The risk of death [from Covid in children] is one in a million. That’s not a figure and plucking from the air, that’s a quantifiable risk.”

The University of Liverpool professor of child health and outbreak medicine told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We know in wave one and wave two put together there were 12 deaths in children – in England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland, put together – and that is rare because there are about 13 to 14 million children in the UK.
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you also have to distinguish between children and teenagers
 
gavreid said:
Vaccination is about the population rather than the individual. Gambling on personal immunity is a fools game if you have underlying problems and significant responsibilities. The efficacy is an average taken from a much broader distribution.
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You are entitled to err on the side of extreme caution, but if the vaccines continue to demonstrate population wide effectiveness against Delta then society must and will reopen.
 
sean99 said:
You are entitled to err on the side of extreme caution, but if the vaccines continue to demonstrate population wide effectiveness against Delta then society must and will reopen.
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Unfortunately Delta is not the end of the line. The G7's failure to underwrite significant levels of vaccines globally guarantees as much
 
sean99 said:
You are entitled to err on the side of extreme caution, but if the vaccines continue to demonstrate population wide effectiveness against Delta then society must and will reopen.
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[Broken record mode on] Sean - it's a population numbers game. So while 92% protection sounds great, 8% of the vaccinated UK adult population being at risk (and from a much more transmissable variant) is still millions of people liable to get and pass on the virus. Add that to the 40% or so protection to millions of the single vaccinated and no protection to the (still millions of) unvaccinated and that is still enough for the delta variant to run wild and give the NHS a very hard time. [Broken record mode off]
 
9 055 cases today, 9 deaths and 185 admissions (14th). The doubling time of these hospitalisations is looking faster than Alpha at the moment (only a single point in the last nine days has been below the line), 14 days perhaps, in line with the growth in case numbers. The yellow line is 20 days.

 
gavreid said:
It's just timing. Delta is growing rapidly in the US, 10% last time I saw but it'll take longer for the fraction of Delta in the US to affect the nationwide statistics I think...
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Here we see about between 5 and 10 days doubling time. Call it 8. Is it naive to expect 20% delta in the USA next week, 40% in a fortnight and then the week after they're in shit street?

In France there's 4% delta. Applying the same (possibly naive) reasoning that means they've got about 4 to five weeks before they are in trouble.

It can't be so obvious, there must be something wrong about this reasoning, because the governments are doing absolutely nothing about it. In France they've just un-locked-down a bit in fact. If it's so predictable they'd be mad to do that, and they're not mad.
 
mandryka said:
Here we see about 5 days doubling time. Is it naive to expect 20% delta in the USA next week, 40% in a fortnight and then the week after they're in shit street?
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I think it might be for the US - it's the geographic area. But cases in certain cities might well do that.
 
mandryka said:
Here we see about between 5 and 10 days doubling time. Call it 8. Is it naive to expect 20% delta in the USA next week, 40% in a fortnight and then the week after they're in shit street?

In France there's 4% delta. Applying the same (possibly naive) reasoning that means they've got about 4 to five weeks before they are in trouble.

It can't be so obvious, there must be something wrong about this reasoning, because the governments are doing absolutely nothing about it. In France they've just un-locked-down a bit in fact. If it's so predictable they'd be mad to do that, and they're not mad.
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As non Delta cases go down either due to death or recovery, then Delta cases will rise and this rise will be exponential. Go back to page one of this thread to read all about governments reacting too slowly to the emerging threats and also ignoring exponential growth
 
mandryka said:
In The Guardian’s report of PMQs (I haven’t watched it) Starmer makes a point which has been bugging me



Why is Delta so strong here and not in the USA and the EU, where there are also large Indian populations? Any suggestions?
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I'd be looking at correlation with the figures for travel from delta hot spots to the UK.
 
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