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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Seanm said:
The point is that the extreme position is built into the argument. Uninformed border enthusiasts just wonder why we didn’t redlist this or that country sooner. The better informed will admit that that can only delay things, a little: you’ve got to have very hard blanket restrictions and police them very aggressively if what you want is to actually keep variants out - and there are no guarantees even then, as Vietnam demonstrates. But it’s rare that they’re upfront about this.
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Has seanm's account been hacked by Matt Hancock?
 
sean99 said:
I wonder if this is wishful thinking ? Delta has shown that the virus can increase the R0 AND become more virulent. A virus with 20% mortality could still spread pretty effectively provided people were contagious for at least several days before becoming incapacitated.

I do wonder if there a chance we could see a variant with the mortality rate approaching the original SARS (10% generally, 50% over 60s) but with COVID-19's R0. I sincerely hope not, but I worry with COVID we may be at the "end of the beginning", rather than the "beginning of the end".

Vaccinating the world should be humanity's #1 priority right now.

https://theconversation.com/will-coronavirus-really-evolve-to-become-less-deadly-153817
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It probably is wishful thinking but what’s the alternative? Mortality is heavily weighted towards the elderly (well over 60s). I am just not the type to cling to every bit of bad news & revel in it. Bad for the mental health.
 
matt j said:
I don't know about Matt Hancock, but Sean seems to be one of the few speaking a modicum of common sense rather than hysteria.
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If you say so (I disagree just so as you know ;) ). IMO the "it's too hard" position taken by so many and of course our government is partly why we are where we are now. Anyway this is largely irrelevant as unless we take a global approach to all this soon we will either need more lockdowns or have to accept more illness and death (unless we are very lucky). Personally I'm sort of past the point of caring and just going to conduct my life according to my own personal risk assessment of things as the vaccine is no longer effective enough for me to, for instance, get on a bus. Luckily I work from home, live rurally and don't have much to worry about. I do feel for others less fortunate though... I'm sure any sense of bravado may well disappear from those saying '**** it' if they or their loved ones get sick. Anyways I'm going back to sitting in the garden :D
 
sean99 said:
I do wonder if there a chance we could see a variant with the mortality rate approaching the original SARS (10% generally, 50% over 60s) but with COVID-19's R0. I sincerely hope not, but I worry with COVID we may be at the "end of the beginning", rather than the "beginning of the end".
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I share your concern. It’s almost inevitable there will be a variant which evades current vaccines. If it doesn’t evolve naturally it will appear anyway IMHO. What do we do, lock ourselves up in case it appears?! We’re at the point where the vulnerable and enough of the general population are vaccinated, so really have to crack on and take whatever level of personal risk one is comfortable with. When I think about it, that’s what I’m seeing people do.
 
matt j said:
Yes, because there's no middle ground between locking yourself up in the cellar for ten years and hunting down journalists on the street :rolleyes:
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My risk is in sending the kids to school - there have been cases at one or the other every week the schools have been open. You can't lock yourself away, it's impossible, but you can minimise the risks as I'm sure you've been trying to do. I now live in the region with the highest number of cases - once again.
 
gavreid said:
My risk is in sending the kids to school - there have been cases at one or the other every week the schools have been open. You can't lock yourself away, it's impossible, but you can minimise the risks as I'm sure you've been trying to do. I now live in the region with the highest number of cases - once again.
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But you’ve been vaccinated! What am I missing? Why shouldn’t vaccinated people feel perfectly confident to lead a rich social life, with no social distancing?
 
mandryka said:
But you’ve been vaccinated! What am I missing? Why shouldn’t vaccinated people feel perfectly confident to lead a rich social life, with no social distancing?
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At a guess I'd say it's because there's a chance you could catch it, be asymptomatic and pass it on to those who haven't reached full immunity yet. So, basically, until everyone who wants to be vaccinated has had both doses, "selfishness" is the answer to your question.
 
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