Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

[gavreid]

We can’t get to a zero-tolerance position on COVID deaths, so we need to have a conversation about the level that is tolerable. Annual flu deaths would seem to be a reasonable marker for openers, not least because there’s likely to be an overlap in those who would succumb.

Annual flu deaths vary considerably and there has been a big push in recent years to lower the numbers through vaccination. All kids up to year 7s now get it where as 10 years ago nobody did. I think deaths in the icu are 5% or so from flu, so covid is considerably more deadly and that means supressing the case numbers well below annual flus.

That's what Indy SAGE has been recommending but is being ignored it seems to me.

 

[Deejay]

"Leading scientists have warned that the government is risking a third wave of Covid-19 by easing the lockdown at a time when official data still shows virus hotspots across many parts of the country.

With the UK poised to lift many Covid restrictions on Monday, the scientists accuse ministers of abandoning their promises to “follow the data, not dates” in a rush to reopen society and the economy."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ead-to-third-covid-wave-in-uk-scientists-warn

Oh come off it! They just can’t help but scaremonger and of course it’s in The Guardian, who else!?

We’ve been in this lockdown for three months now and lockdowns/restrictions in general for more than a year. We’ve got to get back to some form of normal. All the data is clearly heading in the right direction and got to be better than they were expecting. I’ve just come to the conclusion that some of these ‘scientists’ don’t want us to come out of lockdowns, they act like we don’t have vaccines!

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Annual flu deaths vary considerably and there has been a big push in recent years to lower the numbers through vaccination. All kids up to year 7s now get it where as 10 years ago nobody did. I think deaths in the icu are 5% or so, so covid is considerably more deadly that means supressing the case numbers well below annual flus.

That's what Indy SAGE has been recommending but is being ignored it seems to me.

Yes, but the long term average annual flu deaths is a five figure number, IIRC, and not only have we tolerated that for decades, we’re pretty sanguine about it, as a population, to the point of hardly commenting on it except when you get the NHS stress tested in peak season. So it seems to me, that’s a number we’re prepared to tolerate, and if we’re close to achieving that, then we can dial down the national hysteria levels a bit.

This is not to say the ultra vigilance of the last year was misplaced. Quite the opposite, but we should be ready to help people return to a healthier state of mind with regard to this ongoing situation.

 

[gavreid]

Yes, but the long term average annual flu deaths is a five figure number, IIRC, and not only have we tolerated that for decades, we’re pretty sanguine about it, as a population, to the point of hardly commenting on it except when you get the NHS stress tested in peak season. So it seems to me, that’s a number we’re prepared to tolerate, and if we’re close to achieving that, then we can dial down the national hysteria levels a bit.

One of Public Health England's main remits was getting a grip on flu numbers - they are not tolerated by any stretch of the imagination. For many years they were unavoidable, that's a very different thing. Remember flu on it's own nearly overwhelms hospitals during the winter period.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Gav, I edited my post, I don’t think we’re disagreeing in any fundamental sense.

I do, however, think that continuing overpopulation trends will be the end of many things, and the constant battle to eliminate death is not entirely desirable.

 

[Deejay]

Here are their four tests. Raised prevalence in Yorkshire or the Midlands won't get in the way of a move to the next stage.

• whether vaccine deployment has continued successfully;
• vaccines are effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths;
• infection rates do not risk a surge that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS;
• the assessment of risk is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.

We clearly meet the four tests. There may be some areas that have higher infection rates than others but the general trend is downwards. As I shared yesterday, the total numbers of daily new cases of Covid across the UK has fallen to as low as 1,626 according to the @Join_ZOE app.

I’m fed up to the back teeth of some of these lefty scientists and their predictions, who if they had their own way would never allow us to get back to normal!

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I wish to distance myself from Deejay on this, the basis of his suggestion that it is ‘lefty’ scientists urging caution. I think the vaccine, if it continues to offer protection against serious disease, puts us in a position similar to annual flu which does not, even in bad years, justify lockdowns or restrictions on normal life (not to mention civil liberties). But I cannot agree that lefty scientists are advocating for continued restrictions, still less that respectable scientists will argue from a political perspective.

 

[gavreid]

I think it's worth recalling that Burnley came out of lockdown last Summer when case rates were around 30/ 100k that's around the current national average. Today's many hotspots (including where I live, which is not inner city by any standard) are ten times higher than that, or even more so in the worst cases, and tomorrow people will be shopping and getting haircuts!

 

[Deejay]

Sue, we agree on this subject. Like you say, if the vaccine continues to offer protection against serious disease, then it does put us into a similar position to flu and does not justify lockdowns or restrictions. Case rates therefore aren’t as important and maybe there is simply more testing going on in places such as Burnley? The North and Midlands have been pummelled enough by these restrictions, as I’m all too aware of living in Manchester.

But lets be clear, there are lefties within the ranks of SAGE. Susan Michie for instance is a member of the Communist Party. There are others, so there is politics and various self interests going on here. I don’t seem to remember us voting for people like that to seemingly run the country.

And when will national media such as The Guardian (not the best source to constantly go to make your point) be more responsible and not make a story out of what one or two scientists are saying and present it as fact?

 

[Seeker_UK]

But lets be clear, there are lefties within the ranks of SAGE. Susan Michie for instance is a member of the Communist Party.

I don't know how to break this to you but there's lefties walking amongst us. Some even look a bit like us, so it's difficult to tell sometimes. Some of your friends may have been replaced by lefties, slowly growing in number and waiting for their chance to take over. Go careful.

 

[Deejay]

and tomorrow people will be shopping and getting haircuts!

How wrong of them after months of lockdown... they should stay at home forever... ten years just to be safe...

 

[mandryka]

 

[mandryka]

I think it's worth recalling that Burnley came out of lockdown last Summer when case rates were around 30/ 100k that's around the current national average. Today's many hotspots (including where I live, which is not inner city by any standard) are ten times higher than that, or even more so in the worst cases, and tomorrow people will be shopping and getting haircuts!

Without any doubt we are unlocking down (up?) with high prevalence. I guess that’s one of the reasons behind the government’s approach of small step at five week intervals. I mean if things do explode over the next few weeks we can back pedal. We’re in largely unknown territory, there’s little known with any confidence how useful NHS test and trace will be, and although things look promising about vaccines, anything can happen - not to mention variants.

In my opinion, given that transmission from schools seems to be under reasonable control, the two biggest areas of concern are new variant monitoring and control, and the safety of public transport and the workplace. If those two areas are being managed adequately, then I think it’s not imprudent to open up retail tomorrow - though it is not free from risk.

 

[Deejay]

Without any doubt we are unlocking down (up?) with high prevalence.

Prevalence is a lot lower than when we come out of the November lockdown into the tiers and there were no vaccines then. All four tests met so I think the government were right to go ahead with easing on Monday. Let’s see how the next five weeks go now.

 

[gavreid]

The weekly summary will become fortnightly from now onwards. The large growth in cases among young children is the most striking observation (taken from the ONS survey). This will have been suppressed by school holidays recently. I think the other major point has been covered today already i.e. the north south divide

 

[mandryka]

One lesson which I think we can draw from the events of the past year is that the British are pretty phlegmatic about death. They're cooler about death than they are about lockdown. Everyone would say that 150K dead is terrible of course, but I don't see marches on the the streets about it! There are anti-masker movements and aniti-vaxer movements, but no anti-death movements. Zero COVID is part of the lunatic fringe here.

This means that Government have some leeway when it comes to people dying from their policies, but less leeway when it comes to people being restricted by what they do. As long as folks can go on holiday, go shopping, go out to entertainment, buy their favourite eats on the high street etc, they're calm about other people dying in large numbers, I guess they think it's going to happen in the end anyway, it's only natural, so better to party now.

I suppose the Government think there's an upper limit to this British death instinct, they're scared to push it, hence the test which says:

• infection rates do not risk a surge that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

.

 

[Deejay]

Zero COVID is part of the lunatic fringe here.

Yes, one or two on this forum definitely pushing this idea...

 

[tiggers]

One lesson which I think we can draw from the events of the past year is that the British are pretty phlegmatic about death. They're cooler about death than they are about lockdown. Everyone would say that 150K dead is terrible of course, but I don't see marches on the the streets about it! There are anti-masker movements and aniti-vaxer movements, but no anti-death movements. Zero COVID is part of the lunatic fringe here.

This means that Government have some leeway when it comes to people dying from their policies, but less leeway when it comes to people being restricted by what they do. As long as folks can go on holiday, go shopping, go out to entertainment, buy their favourite eats on the high street etc, they're calm about other people dying in large numbers, I guess they think it's going to happen in the end anyway, it's only natural, so better to party now.

I suppose the Government think there's an upper limit to this British death instinct, they're scared to push it, hence the test which says:

• infection rates do not risk a surge that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

.

What you are describing is selfishness. The 'as long as it's not me who dies then I don't care' mantra that we see from so many people. To be honest I expect the whole retail opening and haircuts thing to have less effect than people think as lockdown effectively ended for many weeks ago as far as I can tell. The schools are doubtless the main concern right now, but wait until pubs and restaurants get going indoors in May... and if they also allow foreign travel then I think this 'lockdown' has likely been a waste of time. Anyway just looking after myself and my closest right now, **** everybody else as most people seem to no longer give a shit!

 

[Deejay]

What you are describing is selfishness. The 'as long as it's not me who dies then I don't care' mantra that we see from so many people. To be honest I expect the whole retail opening and haircuts thing to have less effect than people think as lockdown effectively ended for many weeks ago as far as I can tell. The schools are doubtless the main concern right now, but wait until pubs and restaurants get going indoors in May... and if they also allow foreign travel then I think this 'lockdown' has likely been a waste of time. Anyway just looking after myself and my closest right now, **** everybody else as most people seem to no longer give a shit!

The thing is it’s not selfish to want to get on and live your life. I care about every single one of the 150k who have died from this virus but people do also have jobs and businesses and lives to live and they matter too. It’s not just a case of people wanting a pint in a pub but folk shouldn’t be made to feel like they’re being selfish for wanting freedoms back. You can want all these things back but care about others at the same time. What about the sacrifices many have made over the last year to ensure that others are safe and to protect the NHS? Is it not selfish of others to indefinitely impose restrictions on people? What about the collateral damage caused by lockdowns?

Not one part of your post acknowledges that vaccines now exist and all of the most vulnerable (who make up 99 per cent of deaths) have now been vaccinated. Instead you post like nothing has changed and it will be like last year all over again! That is just plain ignorance. There is no reasoning with people such as yourself.

Folk have to accept that Covid is here to stay like flu and we have to tolerate and manage it like we do with that, acknowledging that sadly some people will die which ultimately is a fact of life.

 

[mandryka]

For the past 40 years or more children in British schools have been taught to focus on achieving their own targets. And not for nothing - a nation of target driven ruthlessly selfish isolated people is a good workforce, and a controllable population. This is a learned thing, as far as I know there’s no reason to think it’s natural. I’m not sure it was the same in Maoist China, for example.

Years ago, in the 1980s, I was part of a management consultancy company which were approached by the Thatcher government to set precisely this in motion.