Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

[gavreid]

Zero COVID is part of the lunatic fringe here.

David King is nobody's fool I can assure you of that much. It's the failure of T&T that has been the problem and that is really about support to isolate. The Indy Sage strategy is one of a 'fully-fledged and locally controlled system of Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support (FTTIS)'

 

[Seanm]

One lesson which I think we can draw from the events of the past year is that the British are pretty phlegmatic about death. They're cooler about death than they are about lockdown. Everyone would say that 150K dead is terrible of course, but I don't see marches on the the streets about it! There are anti-masker movements and aniti-vaxer movements, but no anti-death movements. Zero COVID is part of the lunatic fringe here.

This means that Government have some leeway when it comes to people dying from their policies, but less leeway when it comes to people being restricted by what they do. As long as folks can go on holiday, go shopping, go out to entertainment, buy their favourite eats on the high street etc, they're calm about other people dying in large numbers, I guess they think it's going to happen in the end anyway, it's only natural, so better to party now.

I suppose the Government think there's an upper limit to this British death instinct, they're scared to push it, hence the test which says:

• infection rates do not risk a surge that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

.

40 years of "necropolitics": we've been conditioned not only to accept but to celebrate the fact that some (the undeserving poor, mostly, but also women, people of colour, the old and frail) are routinely exposed to violence and death. Austerity killed tens of thousands of the most vulnerable, and that was the point of it: it wasn't something that the government did to save money, and got away with - they did it because it was popular, electorally. I'm not sure that people are phlegmatic about *their own* deaths, by the way: it's always someone else, someone undeserving. Happily for the government the virus followed the usual discriminatory patterns and so their voters were basically fine with it.

 

[gavreid]

40 years of "necropolitics": we've been conditioned not only to accept but to celebrate the fact that some (the undeserving poor, mostly, but also women, people of colour, the old and frail) are routinely exposed to violence and death. Austerity killed tens of thousands of the most vulnerable, and that was the point of it: it wasn't something that the government did to save money, and got away with - they did it because it was popular, electorally. I'm not sure that people are phlegmatic about *their own* deaths, by the way: it's always someone else, someone undeserving. Happily for the government the virus followed the usual discriminatory patterns and so their voters were basically fine with it.

"Young black workers have been hit disproportionately hard during the pandemic, according to Guardian analysis, with more than 40% unemployed [and similar to the levels that provoked the 1981 riots] – three times worse than white workers of the same age."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/black-youth-unemployment-rate-brixton-riots-covid

 

[gavreid]

P1 seems to be loose in Canada, hopefully it might be contained but in reality they don't know where it is or how it took hold.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/11/canada-ski-resort-p1-covid-variant-whistler

 

[Deejay]

Covid third wave no longer expected in the summer, admit government advisers. Modelling was too pessimistic... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....nger-expected-summer-government-advisers/amp/

More than half of people in England are living in areas with almost no new Covid cases. Some areas haven’t reported a case in public data for over a month...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ple-england-living-areas-almost-no-new-covid/

Scientists are also saying that the risk of two vaccinated people picking up Covid indoors is ‘tiny’, calculating there is just a one in 400,000 chance of picking up an infection. While government scientists are also no longer so worried about the threat of new variants. Just a few more media reports I’ve read.

Where’s this big wave coming from and why is it not safe for people to have a haircut and go shopping?

 

[davidsrsb]

We have had haircuts in Malaysia for several months now and not one case attributed to them.
Plenty of cases from gyms.

 

[tiggers]

The thing is it’s not selfish to want to get on and live your life. I care about every single one of the 150k who have died from this virus but people do also have jobs and businesses and lives to live and they matter too. It’s not just a case of people wanting a pint in a pub but folk shouldn’t be made to feel like they’re being selfish for wanting freedoms back. You can want all these things back but care about others at the same time. What about the sacrifices many have made over the last year to ensure that others are safe and to protect the NHS? Is it not selfish of others to indefinitely impose restrictions on people? What about the collateral damage caused by lockdowns?

Not one part of your post acknowledges that vaccines now exist and all of the most vulnerable (who make up 99 per cent of deaths) have now been vaccinated. Instead you post like nothing has changed and it will be like last year all over again! That is just plain ignorance. There is no reasoning with people such as yourself.

Folk have to accept that Covid is here to stay like flu and we have to tolerate and manage it like we do with that, acknowledging that sadly some people will die which ultimately is a fact of life.

Sorry, but I am a long way from ignorant. I want some normality back, of course I do, but to think we can go back to completely where we were pre coronavirus in the short term IS ignorant. I'd settle for pubs, restaurants open with social distancing, people allowed to meet at home, holidays in the UK and everything else like foreign holidays, indoor sports events, concerts etc.on hold until 2022 when we can see where we are post-vaccination. If we have everything back to normal like Johnson says we will on 21st June I can't help but foresee more restrictions next winter. Put simply I'd rather have some normality for the medium term than a rollercoaster of full normality/lockdown/full normality/lockdown as that is what we will have if we continue this way. The vaccines are great, but will not be enough on their own especially if we treat this as a national rather than a global issue! Sorry, but that is the truth of the issue!

 

[Seanm]

Covid third wave no longer expected in the summer, admit government advisers. Modelling was too pessimistic... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....nger-expected-summer-government-advisers/amp/

More than half of people in England are living in areas with almost no new Covid cases. Some areas haven’t reported a case in public data for over a month...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ple-england-living-areas-almost-no-new-covid/

Scientists are also saying that the risk of two vaccinated people picking up Covid indoors is ‘tiny’, calculating there is just a one in 400,000 chance of picking up an infection. While government scientists are also no longer so worried about the threat of new variants. Just a few more media reports I’ve read.

Where’s this big wave coming from and why is it not safe for people to have a haircut and go shopping?

If the disease is allowed to spread rapidly then there’s a good chance that a lot of vulnerable people will catch it. And if vulnerable people who have not been vaccinated, or who have only had once vaccination, do catch the disease there is a good chance (about 1 in 3 in this example) that they will die of it:

https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1381040347833241605?s=21

This has been pointed out to you many, many times. Go slow and get lucky and we avoid an exit wave. Go too fast and we kill another 60 thousand old people.

 

[Deejay]

7 deaths and 1,730 cases (yes I know it’s a Sunday).

Very low figures, the lowest in months. Still no sign of this big third wave that’s apparently going to hit us...

 

[gavreid]

1 730 cases, 7 deaths. Hospitalisations are well above (25% on the 7th) the recent trend as I alluded to yesterday - time will tell, as ever.

 

[billo]

• infection rates do not risk a surge that would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

.

I suspect that the real reason for this is that there will be no American private health groups willing to bid on a broken (and broke) NHS

 

[Seanm]

7 deaths and 1,730 cases (yes I know it’s a Sunday).

Very low figures, the lowest in months. Still no sign of this big third wave that’s apparently going to hit us...

Time to abandon the plan then...

 

[Sonority]

Somebody kick the sodding record player will ya - it's stuck in exactly the same groove as last time.

 

[Seanm]

Weekly routine.

 

[gavreid]

This is the kind of feeding frenzy that I fear. It's one thing if you live in Devon, totally another in Barnsley, Leeds or Manchester

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...frenzy-for-first-day-of-lockdown-lite-england

 

[Andrew C!]

Very low figures, the lowest in months. Still no sign of this big third wave that’s apparently going to hit us...

Why are you filtering facts to suit your argument? I don’t post much on here these days, but I would point out that no-one is modelling a third wave until the autumn, if we do not heed the advice about being careful. It stands to clear reason the summer will be less impactive due to how the virus works. However I’m fed up of going from nothing to full lockdown. I want to see some careful measures so we can compromise without having to endure what we have been doing for the last three months.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

7 deaths and 1,730 cases (yes I know it’s a Sunday).

Very low figures, the lowest in months. Still no sign of this big third wave that’s apparently going to hit us...

You do know the 'big third wave' isn't due until later in the year, don't you? You sound like the bloke who fell off the cliff and, on the way down, kept saying 'well, I'm not dead yet so it's all fine'.

And let's not forget the international dimension. Ignoring, for now, the risk of mutations, if we flock overseas on holiday we'll likely export more virus to places where far fewer people have been vaccinated. That's just wrong.

 

[matt j]

Sorry, but I am a long way from ignorant. I want some normality back, of course I do, but to think we can go back to completely where we were pre coronavirus in the short term IS ignorant. I'd settle for pubs, restaurants open with social distancing, people allowed to meet at home, holidays in the UK and everything else like foreign holidays, indoor sports events, concerts etc.on hold until 2022 when we can see where we are post-vaccination. If we have everything back to normal like Johnson says we will on 21st June I can't help but foresee more restrictions next winter. Put simply I'd rather have some normality for the medium term than a rollercoaster of full normality/lockdown/full normality/lockdown as that is what we will have if we continue this way. The vaccines are great, but will not be enough on their own especially if we treat this as a national rather than a global issue! Sorry, but that is the truth of the issue!

Can't disagree with any of that, the only caveat being that if we wait another year will there be much left of any of those things to even re-open?

I service the kit at a big conference venue not far from me, they've effectively been completely closed for over a year. They've already laid off all the 250 staff aside from a handful of maintenance guys, when I spoke to the bloke left running it he reckons they've lost a million a month whilst shut.

 

[Monitor Gold 10]

"Young black workers have been hit disproportionately hard during the pandemic, according to Guardian analysis, with more than 40% unemployed [and similar to the levels that provoked the 1981 riots] – three times worse than white workers of the same age."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/11/black-youth-unemployment-rate-brixton-riots-covid

My piece from last year:

https://saferoxfordstreet.blogspot.com/2020/07/stopkillingbusdrivers-whos-listening-to.html

Many, many more died after this was written.

 

[tiggers]

Can't disagree with any of that, the only caveat being that if we wait another year will there be much left of any of those things to even re-open?

I service the kit at a big conference venue not far from me, they've effectively been completely closed for over a year. They've already laid off all the 250 staff aside from a handful of maintenance guys, when I spoke to the bloke left running it he reckons they've lost a million a month whilst shut.

I know there are no easy or win win solutions to this, but.... it's about selecting the lesser of all the evils. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I think unless we're careful we could be back in a not dissimilar boat to that we're just getting out of. The fact is that there is no rosy solution.