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Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

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gavreid said:
I think it's very difficult to draw any conclusions while the kids are off school
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They've been at school for about three weeks, plenty of time for them to infect each other, so there should be enough data to get a view of that now. And I'd have thought, I'm hoping, that the three weeks was enough time to form a view about their impact on transmission out of school -- the families will have had a couple of week's contact with their contagious offspring, so that should be showing up in data surely. Whitty or someone like that was categorical in one of those press conferences that five weeks between stages is needed to assess the impact of each stage -- for for the data to accumulate and one to analyse it. It would be surprising to say the least if that was misleading.
 
IanW said:
You are probably right but I am hoping that in the ONS they have access to more detailed data which can be supplied to the mathematical modellers who are able to make that kind of judgement. It will be interesting to see what comes out from this as this is a good scenario for the use of a data driven model that that is configured for looking at changes in areas like testing type, kids off from school etc.
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That's very true but it's always in the past...
 
mandryka said:
They've been at school for about three weeks, plenty of time for them to infect each other, so there should be enough data to get a view of that now. And I'd have thought, I'm hoping, that the three weeks was enough time to form a view about their impact on transmission out of school -- the families will have had a couple of week's contact with their contagious offspring, so that should be showing up in data surely. Whitty or someone like that was categorical in one of those press conferences that five weeks between stages is needed to assess the impact of each stage.
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What's your point - the highest rate of infection during lockdown is among school kids
 
gavreid said:
What's your point - the highest rate of infection during lockdown is among school kids
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My point is this: hopefully they will be in a position to see the impact of schools' opening on community transmission next week or the week after, in order to feel confident about allowing retail to open.

Is that some sort of non-sequitur in your discussion? Sorry if I intruded with a red herring.
 
IanW said:
The numbers over the Easter weekend need to be assessed very carefully due to variation in reporting timeframes (i.e. numbers may go up next week as the numbers are corrected). As in it would not be wise to raw conclusions from these numbers just yet. But it is really good to see them dropping like this.

Next week will give a good indication as to whether the numbers have continued to fall, or not, or whether the uncertainty due to changes in the test type and number of tests being conducted are too large for any statement to be made about this.
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Appreciate all of this and that the numbers will be lower over Easter. Very encouraging all the same though and all the signs are that deaths are dropping fast to the point there will be very few in a couple of weeks time.

Re schools, surely there’s been enough time to assess the impact now. For me, they’ve been open for three weeks and we’re still seeing drops. The big spikes predicted and this idea that schools are vectors of transmission simply appears to have not been the case. Do the hysterical lefty teaching unions still think it’s not safe?

Everything has to be on course for further reopenings on April 12.
 
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How exciting!
 
Deejay said:
Appreciate all of this and that the numbers will be lower over Easter. Very encouraging all the same though and all the signs are that deaths are dropping fast to the point there will be very few in a couple of weeks time.

Re schools, surely there’s been enough time to assess the impact now. For me, they’ve been open for three weeks and we’re still seeing drops. The big spikes predicted and this idea that schools are vectors of transmission simply appears to have not been the case. Do the hysterical lefty teaching unions still think it’s not safe?

Everything has to be on course for further reopenings on April 12.
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I think school children must be vectors of the virus, surely if the metric is deaths within 28 days of a positive result then we’ll have to wait another three weeks before the impact can be assessed?
 
Deejay said:
Appreciate all of this and that the numbers will be lower over Easter. Very encouraging all the same though and all the signs are that deaths are dropping fast to the point there will be very few in a couple of weeks time.

Re schools, surely there’s been enough time to assess the impact now. For me, they’ve been open for three weeks and we’re still seeing drops. The big spikes predicted and this idea that schools are vectors of transmission simply appears to have not been the case. Do the hysterical lefty teaching unions still think it’s not safe?

Everything has to be on course for further reopenings on April 12.
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The usual quote is to wait 5 weeks until the effect of any change STARTS to become visible.
 
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hc25036 said:
The usual quote is to wait 5 weeks until the effect of any change STARTS to become visible.
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Four weeks according to Whitty + one week to think about it (from 22 Feb Press Conference)

The reason for that is that inevitably for each one of these steps we are taking a risk which is an accepted risk - there is a risk to this, and everybody in the country I'm sure understands this.

And what we want to do is after each set of risks with a particular set of opening up, wait until we have data that tells us, has this done what we expected it to do, have we actually ended up in a slightly worse place than we thought we would, or have indeed we ended up in a slightly better place?

But I think the big worry is, have things got slightly worse than we were expecting, and we cannot measure that in less than about four weeks because it takes that long for the effect to be seen and the data to come through and be analysed.

So that's the reason for the five-week gap, because it allows us to see whether it's had an effect and then to make a judgment as to whether that's material to making the next decision.
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The stage we’re in right now is strange because of the Easter school closure - I’m not sure if that makes the decision easier or harder. But I am sure they have thought about this question!
 
Ponty said:
People are being paid to be off work to prevent the spread of the virus. No issue with that. I do have an issue when people break the rules, which increases the spread of the virus and defeats the reason they are being paid to be off work. The govt is not borrowing money for fun. Some may think we can just keep printing but we can’t, we’ll have to pay the piper. The govt borrowing is paying people’s rent / mortgage / utilities / food etc and is being added to the national debt. The quid pro quo should be to stick to the rules.
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There seems to be an assumption here that the people breaking the rules are all on furlough, or receiving support of some form. I haven’t seen anything to support that assumption. Have you? How would you feel if, hypothetically, all those people turned out to be key workers, taking some well-earned R&R?
 
10 new COVID-19 related deaths and 2,297 new cases in the latest 24-hour period.

No Northern Ireland and Wales data today but even with that numbers would be low.
 
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