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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

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gavreid said:
There's definitely some funny business going on around the scotland squad though and who has been a close contact there. Presumably all of them.
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Totally and it's been going on the entire season domestically and also with the Scotland squad.
 
Spraggons Den said:
Another quadrupling will take us to 40k cases by 19 July which we last saw the week before xmas and resulted in the Jan lockdown. No way can even BJ spin those stats into an argument for the end of all social restrictions.
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BJ doesn't need to, there's a media for that.

Reported on the radio (either R4 or 6 Music, can't remember when I turned over) not long ago - lowest deaths in a week (or was it month?) since whatever reassuring-sounding date last year.

I can offer no analysis, but if that report was all you'd heard, you'd be eyeing up sun cream and deciding which tap to lick at the pub huggathon in July. If not sooner.

PS, just been on again - 80% of people reported as having antibodies. Same implication.
 
Really quite marvellous.. Dido nailed. Michael Govern Ready is a genius..

https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1407224658185887746?s=21

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11 625 cases, 27 deaths and 171 admissions (20th). Are cases numbers really beginning to slow? Not much evidence here.
 
Just as a small change of tack for this thread, did anybody else see Together on BBC2 a few days ago? We watched it, expecting it to be a fairly lightweight, if slightly morbid comedy about a couple who hated each other, trying to get through lockdown together. It wasn't, really, though. It was a clever vehicle for a powerful drama about the government failures in handling this whole crisis. But beautifully and subtly done, some absolutely excoriating parts. James McAvoy and Sharon Horgan were absolutely stunning in it. If you didn't see it, perhaps dismissing it from the trailers as we nearly did, I strongly recommend catching it on iPlayer.
 
Spraggons Den said:
I only know the figures for the AZ vaccine because that was the one we had. It is 94% effective against preventing infection from the original variant but only 67% for Delta.
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AFAICS the societal goal at this time, as vaccine roll-out proceeds, is to avoid many serious infections leading to many people in hospital and also to avoid many deaths. As heartless as it seems to those who do get infected and suffer from that, if it's a mild infection then as a national priority that is less important.

We have seen significant gains. As a percentage of cases, deaths have gone way down since January; and hospitalizations are well down too. And AIUI from reports here the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are both highly effective against hospitalization (92% and 96%) - close to the point of statistical indistinguishability. And right now circa 2M people per week in the vaccination pipeline are passing the "fully vaccinated" threshold to which these figures apply.

If we are making progress, it ought to be time now or soon to retire infections per se as a headline measure. And AIUI hospital stays are shortening so perhaps replacing hospital admissions with patients in hospital is a better measure of the real load on the NHS.

The patients in hospital and deaths figures are rising for sure but much less fast than the cases and admissions figures. Due caution is essential, but balance is necessary in interpreting figures into an assessment of where we are now. ISTM we should avoid being over-pessimistic just as much as being over-optimistic.
 
There is currently about 150 people going into hospital everyday with Covid - quite a few whom are fully vaccinated and will go into ICU and die.

These numbers dwarf the sample size in the above report so I think it's too early to be certain of anything and we should proceed with caution.
 
Spraggons Den said:
There is currently about 150 people going into hospital everyday with Covid - quite a few whom are fully vaccinated and will go into ICU and die.

These numbers dwarf the sample size in the above report so I think it's too early to be certain of anything and we should proceed with caution.
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Actual figures from totalling the daily government numbers (June totals up to 16th):
Code: 
UK        Cases  Admis'ns  Deaths    A/C    D/C    D/A
Jun-21  104,600     2,797     134   2.7%  0.13%   4.8% so far
May-21   77,731     3,503     248   4.5%  0.32%   7.1%
Apr-21   78,695     5,213     610   6.6%  0.78%  11.7%
Mar-21  170,264    14,446   2,913   8.5%  1.71%  20.2%
Feb-21  359,380    42,714  13,982  11.9%  3.89%  32.7%
Jan-21  374,433    44,347  14,662  11.8%  3.92%  33.1%
Dec-20  859,129    64,580  16,011   7.5%  1.86%  24.8%

So in June so far (to 16th) 134 deaths out of 2,797 admissions or 4.8% compared to 33.1% in January. It's not over and due caution is certainly essential over future risks (some unknown and there will be set-backs) but there is certainly progress since January on a rather larger data set. Quite a lot. Maintaining that progress and improving are key tasks now.
 
John Phillips said:
The patients in hospital and deaths figures are rising for sure but much less fast than the cases and admissions figures.
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I'm get about a 14 day doubling time on admissions matching the rise in cases. Vaccines haven't yet broken the link as far as I can see...

 
gavreid said:
Vaccines haven't yet broken the link as far as I can see...
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Do you just mean that, as far as you can see, the number of people needing hospital care is a function of the number of cases?


Spraggons Den said:
I think it's too early to be certain of anything and we should proceed with caution.
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Boris agrees, that’s why Freedom Day has been delayed till next month. I’m pleased to say that the results of Government measures are looking so good that we may be set free from all these pesky restrictions on July 5 now. Yippee!
 
gavreid said:
Yes. They're increasing exponentially with the same rate constant.
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If I understand things correctly the rate should decline as the number of fully vaccinated people increase

Where

Hosp= N*Cases​

the N should reduce. It should be visible in historical data by now.

That’s what I want you to track!
 
mandryka said:
If I understand things correctly the rate should decline as the number of fully vaccinated people increase

Where

Hosp= N*Cases​

the N should reduce.

That’s what I want you to track!
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That's as maybe but it isn't - yet. The first thing we should see is the rate of infections slowing and that being mirrored a little later in hospitalisations.

We also need to watch deaths over the next month where they could increase enough to be measured. Remember that it's only been three weeks since we have been able to establish a trend in hospitalisations
 
gavreid said:
The first thing we should see is the rate of infections slowing
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Only if the vaccines reduce infections significantly, and they do so faster than the increased freedoms cause infections. These things may not be the case, at least while schools are open. But it doesn’t necessarily matter if N reduces anyway, because vaccination reduces the expectation of hospitalisation.
 
gavreid said:
That's as maybe but it isn't - yet.
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Is N really the same as it was in 2020, or in the first quarter of 2021? What I’m suggesting is (but I haven’t done the work) is that vaccination is already working as hoped on Hosp - if not Cases.

(Got to go now for a root canal filling :()
 
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