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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

Discussion in 'off topic' started by hc25036, Jun 18, 2021.

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  1. hc25036

    hc25036 pfm Member

    That 36% will be an older population with a higher incidence of comorbidities than the other two groups, but even so, that is a very scary piece of information.
     
  2. hc25036

    hc25036 pfm Member

    A 500% higher incidence (ok - these are smallish numbers) in the (older) 2x vaccinated group vs the (younger) unvaccinated group cannot possibly be due to just the ‘very vulnerable’….
     
    tiggers and gavreid like this.
  3. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    They are still very small numbers although there is a time lag. The headline is a single dose reduces the risk of hospitalisation by 75%. The flip side to that is 25% is an awful lot of people if case numbers are simply allowed to keep growing - 71% increase last week.
     
    tiggers, davidsrsb and hc25036 like this.
  4. hc25036

    hc25036 pfm Member

    Spot on….
     
    tiggers likes this.
  5. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I wish there was more data, e.g. the age-profile, date of last vaccination etc. Is this just the very, very old not being able to fight-off a minor covid infection, or is it an indicator that the second dose only lasts for a specific timeframe which is now ending for many who were vaccinated early on? The figures alone don’t give us enough to work on, we need context too.
     
    paulfromcamden and tqineil like this.
  6. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    There was some very early indication 2 weeks ago of waning added to the PHE risk assessment. I've not heard anything else said about that.
     
  7. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    Not doubting you, but I don't quite follow. What's the %500? I haven't seen the age break down.
     
  8. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

     
    tiggers likes this.
  9. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    Looking at the age breakdown at the bottom of the TT front page it seems the growth in cases is largely amongst the 15-29 age group.

    Good news if that just reflects the fact that they're less likely to have had the jab.
     
  10. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    The trouble is, taking the population as a whole rather than adults alone, only 50% are double vaccinated. It's a huge pool.
     
    tiggers likes this.
  11. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    Absolutely - only 35% in London! Hopefully a huge less vulnerable pool though and vaccinations are now being made available to a far wider age group.
     
  12. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    That's a worrying figure. There's also quite a large disparity by race. The summary on the indie sage feed is well worth a watch
     
  13. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

  14. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

  15. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    The trouble is

    1. The pool will get ill, some of them may need to be admitted to hospital. But they're young mostly, so maybe the health system can take this on the chin.

    2. The pool will breed variants with unknown properties. With the number of cases so high, can these be detected and controlled?
     
    paulfromcamden likes this.
  16. hc25036

    hc25036 pfm Member

    It's the sort of analysis I would have been shot for in my job, but assuming that all of those who died were from the hospitalised cohort, 34 of the 527 unvaccinated patients died (say 6%) whereas 26 of the 84 double-vaccinated died (say 30%). Small numbers, and rushed back-of-an-envelope guessing, but it doesn't support an assertion that only the very vulnerable double-vaccinated are at risk. Happy to be corrected if I've messed up the numbers in my hurry...
     
    Seanm likes this.
  17. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    That's beginning to sound like a survival of the fittest argument.
     
  18. Richard Lines

    Richard Lines pfm Member

    Good Afternoon All,

    Isn't that as Darwin would have had it?

    Regards

    Richard
     
  19. Woodface

    Woodface pfm Member

    The young are unlikely to be vaccinated, more likely to mingle with other unvaccinated people but also, probably, not as likely to be ill enough to be admitted to hospital. The data generally is not that robust as this is very new disease & the sample sizes in this wave are quite small (which is a good thing!)
     
  20. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

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