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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

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Tony L said:
In your ill-directed lashing out at Carole Cadwalladr you might inadvertently hit the real issue behind the current Tory ‘were done now, it’s between you and Darwin…’ strategy:

“We only got 40m doses of Pfizer which was never enough once policy changed to not use AZ on <40s. Next order of 60m doesn't start shipping until Sep. Can't admit that, so to not lose face in "vax race against EU" they made it policy to not vax teenagers and go for imm by inf.” (Twitter).

I don’t know the underlying source for that, but if it is true and can be verified it goes a long way in explaining what from any other perspective is clearly a total bonkers and irrational government trajectory. It also explains the otherwise incomprehensible announcement that nightclubs and similar venues will need ‘vaccine passports’ from Sept but the virus is allowed free transmission right now.

Anyone got a good hard source for this? Is the real story here that they’ve run out of vaccine and are deflecting?
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Consider for a moment that you're accusing the JCVI of being involved in an elaborate conspiracy, on the basis of an unsubstantiated claim by Oliver Schönrock #FBPPR, "Entrepreneur".

I'm not sure this is the only explanation available. Occam's razor says, JCVI did its job and came up with a recommendation, recommendation suited government so they accepted it.

If you want you can then ask *why* the recommendation suited government and again it's not hard to develop a non-conspiratorial theory: it doesn't ask anything of them organisationally, it doesn't cost them anything and it won't make their sponsors cross. We have a pretty good idea that we won't have enough Pfizer for teens until September and this may be part of what makes the recommendation appealing, but this is only the "real issue" and some kind of shady secret in green-ink circles.

If I were you I'd be thinking back to that Dolphin Square thread and chilling out a bit, but it's your forum.
 
Seanm said:
Consider for a moment that you're accusing the JCVI of being involved in an elaborate conspiracy, on the basis of an unsubstantiated claim by Oliver Schönrock #FBPPR, "Entrepreneur".
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I’m not, hence forming my post as a question. You are the one currently calling everyone who doesn’t agree 100% with Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid etc a conspiracy theorist or something similar.

I am simply trying to understand why this government is unlocking and allowing viral transmission to spike at a point where we are now clearly back in exponential case growth and rising admissions. It makes no sense to me, so I try and find scientific (virology/epidemiology) explanations as to why they are behaving in this way. I have so far failed to find a credible answer.

I am neither pro nor anti-JCVI. Like you I entirely lack the education and skillset to call this one (I actually realise it though!). The one thing I do know is this government has a long-proven record of lying and blundering decisions relating to covid 19. As such, yes, I find myself somewhat skeptical of their announcements and ever-changing “strategy”. I suspect there are things we are not being told.
 
mandryka said:
DIRECT. Covid-19 : Olivier Véran annonce 18 000 cas détectés sur les dernières 24 heures, une hausse inédite selon le ministre (francetvinfo.fr)

Cases increase 150% in one week in France.

Schools have been closed since 7 July. Not much by way of national NPIs apart from that.

Either it's what we can expect to see or it's not delta or there's something I'm missing.
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Delta variant around 70%, holiday season, sunny weather, déconfinement, masks no longer required, parties everywhere... what would have been really unexpected would have been for the numbers to remain stable or increase moderately.

You can bet Véran or the préfets will announce regional reconfinement measures to slow down this increase.
 
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I think this piece will have been in the FT behind the paywall...

Dr Toby Hillman, who has become an expert on the syndrome after establishing one of the NHS’s earliest long Covid treatment hubs at University College London Hospitals in May 2020, said the service had now treated about 1,700 people. He added that those treated were mostly aged in their 30s, 40s or 50s, and previously fit, defying the stereotype that Covid causes most problems for elderly patients with existing conditions.

While Hillman believes long Covid is of a lesser magnitude, the impact on society will similarly be profound. “I think the degree of impairment that people are experiencing, with long Covid, you could compare with some of the impairment which people had with polio . . . We’re talking about a younger population in their 30s, 40s and 50s. And these are people who have families, they’re teachers, they’re bus drivers . . . Many of them are really struggling to get back to work full time, or in some cases even struggling to get back to work at all. And this is after six or nine months.”

https://thefinanceinfo.com/2021/07/16/long-covid-defies-understanding-as-sufferers-despair/
 
PsB said:
Delta variant around 80%, holiday season, sunny weather, déconfinement, masks no longer required, parties everywhere... what would have been really unexpected would have been for the numbers to remain stable or increase moderately.

You can bet Véran or the préfets will announce regional reconfinement measures to slow down this increase.
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150% a week is a lot though, and outside in the sun is better than inside, and schools are closed. I mean, I expect you're right, but it is slightly worrying.
 
The reasons for not opening up the UK ought to be obvious.

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Joe
 
Is it not the case that the government will present the scientific data to suit? After all, the CMO is a political post, for example. There's lots of ways of interpreting data, one can pick and choose.
 
Seanm said:
It’s an interesting example because there will be a body overseeing the seesaw, and they will have a duty of care towards the users of the seesaw, mandated, ultimately, by government. There’s a kind of shared responsibility involved: parents and children are responsible for not killing themselves/their children with the equipment, the managers of the equipment are responsible for ensuring that reasonable use of the equipment is unlikely to result in death, government is responsible for ensuring duty of care is fulfilled.

What we’ve got here is a government that has failed in its own duty of care,
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I guess that in the Tory party's way of thinking, the duty of care to its citizens has been discharged by offering vaccinations and hospital care if needed, and the existing laws covering health and safety at work and school.

Let me for once put my cards on the table about something: I only believe in legal duties and rights. I think the idea of a duty or right in nature is incoherent. And I believe that the best way to justify law is in consequentialist terms, rule utilitarianism of some kind.
 
Bjork67 said:
:D It's just bizarre what they are doing, I'm nailing myself in the gas cupboard with a few Frey bentos pies.
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Good idea - those things last for yonks. My folks found one at the back of a cupboard 12 years out of date. Was fine!

At the rate we're going they should just about see you through to the end of the pandemic...
 
Joe P said:
The reasons for not opening up the UK ought to be obvious.

EA8-F6409-2295-49-E7-9-C5-C-E71492-C29-D71.png


Joe
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The "joke" is we can't visit our daughter in the UK and she can't visit us in France because HMG (the geniuses currently delivering the highest prevalence of Covid and Delta variant in Europe) has classified France as "amber plus", ostensibly because of the prevalence of the Beta variant (3% of French cases). This variant appears in French stats mostly because of La Réunion (and to a lesser extent Mayotte), islands 9000km away off Madagascar. With all the confinements on both sides of the Channel, we haven't seen her for a year and were hoping that July 19 would at least bring a little family reunion. To add to the farce, this world-beating regulation apparently has a loophole: its restrictions only apply to people coming from metropolitan France, not to people from any of the overseas bits. Incompetence, or sheer bloody-minded bureaucratic lunacy?
 
^ both. You wouldn't trust any UK Minister to boil an egg would you ?
Much of the 'Global Hotspots' map is pretty unreliable IMO. Many countries haven't tested enough to have a clue.
 
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gavreid said:
Border checks on covid compliance on those arriving from all but red list countries have been scrapped according to a new leak:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-checks-on-green-and-amber-list-arrivals
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I’d have some marginal respect for them if they were honest and just said they are going for herd immunity rather than keep lying about the science etc. If there is anyone still taken in by the crap they spout around how their actions are justified then they need to seek help!
 
tiggers said:
I’d have some marginal respect for them if they were honest and just said they are going for herd immunity rather than keep lying about the science etc. If there is anyone still taken in by the crap they spout around how their actions are justified then they need to seek help!
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Why do you think they’re going for herd immunity? I don’t. I think they’re going for enough immunity and to keep cases at a level which the health service can provide for. That’s all they need really.
 
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