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Coronavirus - the new strain XIII

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Seanm said:
You can be absolutely certain that any use of that test to give individuals passports is PR of one type or another, because the false negatives are so high. False positives become more of a problem when it’s used for mass testing, I’d have thought.
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And yet, totally strangely I agree, the Biotime Innova test, which is what was used in Liverpool, looks as though it's being used as a passport to allow people to enter France. Have I misunderstood? WTF is going on? I just don't understand tests at all!

https://uk.ambafrance.org/List-of-antigen-tests-authorized-for-entry-to-France-from-UK-29434
 
mandryka said:
And yet, totally strangely I agree, the Biotime Innova test, which is what was used in Liverpool, looks as though it's being used as a passport to allow people to enter France. Have I misunderstood? WTF is going on? I just don't understand tests at all! The whole thing, everything about tests, is nonsense! Maybe you're right and the whole argie-bargie with France was just PR!


https://uk.ambafrance.org/List-of-antigen-tests-authorized-for-entry-to-France-from-UK-29434
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Either the authorities don’t understand them - and increasingly I think this is possible - or they are, as I say, using them as PR, to spin decisions that are unpopular or questionable or just straight up dangerous.
 
Seanm said:
Either the authorities don’t understand them - and increasingly I think this is possible - or they are, as I say, using them as PR, to spin decisions that are unpopular or questionable or just straight up dangerous.
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Well, no wonder we're in such a mess. It's not just Britain that's led by donkeys, it's the whole fking world! Let's get drunk.
 
Richard Lines said:
I had to fill in a four page on line form upon my return from Belgium so I don't understand how anybody returning to the UK from South Africa couldn't be aware of the possibility of any isolation requirements.

Regards

Richard
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Took advantage of the easing last summer to go to a site in rural France for a pretty isolated holiday. Used the govt website to part complete these forms (as instructed) before we left. Tried to access them before our return completely without success but it was easy to re-do. No-one took the slightest interest in them on our return. I read online about that time that many didn't bother, pity though to waste all the extra staff I'm sure our masters employed for the task.:rolleyes:
 
I've been thinking for a while that the rollout plans for the vaccine are completely wrong.

Listening to How to Vaccinate the World on Radio 4, put one of my concerns into figures.

Apparently one thousand people over 80 are statistically likely to die each day. If all these are vaccinated, these deaths are going to be blamed on the vaccine by the anti-vaxers and so are likely to reduce uptake amongst other groups.

We need to show the population that the vaccine is safe. I think the way we plan to distribute it is likely to have the opposite effect.

Stephen
 
stephen bennett said:
I've been thinking for a while that the rollout plans for the vaccine are completely wrong.

Listening to How to Vaccinate the World on Radio 4, put one of my concerns into figures.

Apparently one thousand people over 80 are statistically likely to die each day. If all these are vaccinated, these deaths are going to be blamed on the vaccine by the anti-vaxers and so are likely to reduce uptake amongst other groups.

We need to show the population that the vaccine is safe. I think the way we plan to distribute it is likely to have the opposite effect.

Stephen
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99% of all deaths are in the over 50 category so there is probably an argument to vaccinate from the other direction but no one will fully agree. In cold terms if you are over 85 you have pretty much ‘won’.
 
wacko said:
Who cares about anti-vaxers ? Let them wait until the end and decide if they want to change their minds or not.
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I do wonder - if this was a pandemic of Ebola type virus (ie, 99,98% fatal) how many anti vaxers (plaugue enablers) there would be.
 
wacko said:
Who cares about anti-vaxers ? Let them wait until the end and decide if they want to change their minds or not.
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Errr - because they will be a sink of infection that will remain a threat to (1) the vaccinated where the vaccine is not completely effective, and (2) those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons. Oh - and the longer the vaccine remains in humans the more chance of mutations that may make the vaccine less effective.

Thus, the unvaccinated remain a serious threat to humanity (only a slight exaggeration for effect).
 
hc25036 said:
Errr - because they will be a sink of infection that will remain a threat to (1) the vaccinated where the vaccine is not completely effective, and (2) those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons. Oh - and the longer the vaccine remains in humans the more chance of mutations that may make the vaccine less effective.

Thus, the unvaccinated remain a serious threat to humanity (only a slight exaggeration for effect).
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Valid point, in the wider context. In a narrower context, let them fret - my jab will then be brought forward.

Seriously, the only concern for me is the wider & long-term side effects of any vaccine, offset against the risk of not having the vaccine itself. Based on the science and associated info, I'll take my chance with the vaccine when it is my turn.
 
Boris has just said that almost 800,000 people have now received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in the UK.

One real positive to hang onto during these hard times.
 
matt j said:
The question is can you believe him? According to him there were only 170 lorries waiting to get back to France the other day, turns out there were about 6000...
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The problem is Britain Trump really is Britain Trump. He has learned he can put up a lectern wherever he wants and lie straight to camera, and he will get away with it. Those of us who see the lies and care about the fact they are lies are in a distinct electoral minority, so we can be safely ignored. This is 21st century politics.
 
TalYWaun said:
A preprint from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine regarding the new variant.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covi..._and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf
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The key line:
"It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden."

I do fear that some of the vaccine analysis is risking paralysis by analysis, and that we should be giving single shots of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to double the speed of rollout, and we should also approve the Astra-Zeneca ASAP and worry later about the relative dosing of first and second shots.
 
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