Coronavirus - the new strain XIII

[gintonic]

You’ve got to ask yourself how many people on the flights from South Africa are ardent followers of the Governments Press conference and even know they need to isolate immediately?. Probably out Christmas shopping, working or getting on with their lives. I think it would be easier if they had people tracking them down and kindly asking them to stay in doors. Rather than expect them to watch the TV to find out.

one might think that the passenger details are available to the government. These press conferences are rather like an advert - oh look how good we are, we've spotted a new variant and now we are acting on it......I doubt very much that message was directly to the passengers on those flights.

 

[gavreid]

This isn't the case for vulnerable people with compromised immune systems.

There's still a good case for those people to have 2 jabs at a defined interval.

More than likely. There have been no clinical trials on a single dose and there is no formal approval for it, so it would require a lot more testing and delay. Unfortunately gobshites like Blair can't keep out of the limelight. Most of us 'only got the single dose' during his government - if you'll pardon the analogy.

 

[stevec67]

This isn't the case for vulnerable people with compromised immune systems.

There's still a good case for those people to have 2 jabs at a defined interval.

Maybe so. However there are sufficiently few of those that we can make a special arrangement.

 

[kabayiri]

Maybe so. However there are sufficiently few of those that we can make a special arrangement.

I guess it's relevant for me, because 2 older members of my family fall into this category, and they have the first dose scheduled next week.

 

[TheDecameron]

They are f-ing up the vaccine rollout, which was really the only thing that was going keep numbers down:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/nhs-leaders-raise-concerns-pace-covid-vaccine-rollout

On the one hand totally predictable, since you don’t give such a complex logistics task to a 3rd rate PR firm, which is what the government is. But part of me had hoped they had their ducks lined up on this one, because it’s been clear since about April that their entire strategy has been to cross their fingers for a vaccine.

They need to pass the baton to Dave Cam’s efficiency tsar, “Sir” Philip Green. With Chris Grayling consulting.

 

[stevec67]

You’ve got to ask yourself how many people on the flights from South Africa are ardent followers of the Governments Press conference and even know they need to isolate immediately?. Probably out Christmas shopping, working or getting on with their lives. I think it would be easier if they had people tracking them down and kindly asking them to stay in doors. Rather than expect them to watch the TV to find out.

I think it I were travelling halfway round the world I'd spend a few minutes of the flight or before sorting out what was necessary on arrival. On that basis the people who are going to follow the rules will look them up first or check on arrival. Those who are going to ignore them will simply ignore them anyway.

 

[clifftaylor]

Shouldn't the airline be doing this??

 

[stevec67]

Shouldn't the airline be doing this??

Sure. But they'll only do so if they're told. Same as the supermarkets letting people ignore the rules. In lockdown 1 they put a man on the door. Not now.

 

[Marchbanks]

‘Before, we only had three tiers. Where can you go from there? Everyone’s in Tier 3, Tier 3, Tier 3... we needed an extra push over the cliff, so our system goes up to Tier 4!’

‘But on Boxing Day only the Scilly Isles will be in Tier 1, and that’s just hotels, holiday homes and a load of seabirds... so why don’t you call Tier 4 Tier 3, make that stricter and move everyone down one?’

(Matt chews uncomprehendingly on his gum, then forms a response) ‘...this goes up to Tier 4!’

 

[gavreid]

‘Before, we only had three tiers. Where can you go from there? Everyone’s in tier 3, tier 3, tier 3... we needed an extra push over the cliff, so our system goes up to tier 4!’

‘But on Boxing Day only the Scilly Isles will be in tier 1, and that’s just hotels, holiday homes and a load of seabirds... so why don’t you call tier 4 tier 3, make that stricter and move everyone down one?’

(Matt chews uncomprehendingly on his gum, then forms a response) ‘...this goes up to Tier 4!’

Just because it feels better to be able to move the tier 4s downwards again later on!

 

[gintonic]

Scilly Isles

Isles of Scilly. if you utter "Scilly Isles" in St Mary's the locals will string up with that beard of yours and whip you.

 

[Tony L]

32 237 new cases today, up more than 60 % on the week (meaning the tiers aren't working, hence the actions noted above), 744 deaths (no longer flat I'm sorry to say this close to Christmas - up 20% on the week in fact) and no new hospital data.

Without wishing to state the bleedin’ obvious it is worth pointing out to all that this is the result of the situation two weeks to a month ago, i.e. before the new mutation and dramatic rise in transmission. A month from now will likely be a pretty dark period.

PS Obviously I know I’m preaching to the converted here, but it really annoys me that this time delay is not banged home at all in the media, Hancock’s Half Hour etc.

 

[Ponty]

32 237 new cases today, up more than 60 % on the week (meaning the tiers aren't working, hence the actions noted above), 744 deaths (no longer flat I'm sorry to say this close to Christmas - up 20% on the week in fact) and no new hospital data.

Jesus. That doesn’t bode well at all.

 

[paulfromcamden]

Interesting to zoom in on particular areas of the .gov plague map: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Our local area in Blackheath has a 7 day average of ~400-500 per 100k. A couple of miles away Eltham and Sidcup are double that at ~1000 per 100k.

Last week some nearby areas were showing weekly increase rates of 300%.

Agree with @Tony L - the ONS survey showed rates climbing in London at the end of Nov but the government sat on their hands - presumably because they're terrified of disrupting Xmas . Even if they introduced a proper lockdown now there are thousands of deaths that are locked in.

 

[Richard Lines]

Shouldn't the airline be doing this??

I had to fill in a four page on line form upon my return from Belgium so I don't understand how anybody returning to the UK from South Africa couldn't be aware of the possibility of any isolation requirements.

Regards

Richard

 

[mandryka]

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2020/1...ity-testing-pilot-interim-findings-published/

Interim findings on the Liverpool testing programme. Interestingly given the discussions here there’s no mention of false positives being a problem. And given my own concerns about testing, the report does highlight the gap between a positive result and actually being contagious.

I heard a radio report on the testing programme at Le Harvre yesterday - a programme which resembled what happened in Liverpool, except that they offered more support for +ves to self isolate - hotel accommodation and some help with day to day things like shopping. But take-up was very disappointing, I think worse than in Liverpool. I’m not sure whether any support was given to isolate if you were found +ve in Liverpool.

 

[tiggers]

So China bans all travel to/from the UK indefinitely. The irony is quite amusing, pity we didn’t do the same in January although of course it may have made no difference by then seeing as how they tried to cover up their latest little creation at first!

 

[davidsrsb]

This isn't the case for vulnerable people with compromised immune systems.

There's still a good case for those people to have 2 jabs at a defined interval.

Still I am not clear that any number of shots would work for people with compromised immune systems.
Making sure that the people close to them are well protected does matter.

Getting a doubled distribution of 90% vs 95% immunity does slash the R rate.

 

[Sloop John B]

Where are we getting the 90% first jab percentage rate information?

.sjb

 

[Seanm]

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2020/1...ity-testing-pilot-interim-findings-published/

Interim findings on the Liverpool testing programme. Interestingly given the discussions here there’s no mention of false positives being a problem. And given my own concerns about testing, the report does highlight the gap between a positive result and actually being contagious.

I heard a radio report on the testing programme at Le Harvre yesterday - a programme which resembled what happened in Liverpool, except that they offered more support for +ves to self isolate - hotel accommodation and some help with day to day things like shopping. But take-up was very disappointing, I think worse than in Liverpool. I’m not sure whether any support was given to isolate if you were found +ve in Liverpool.

You can be absolutely certain that any use of that test to give individuals passports is PR of one type or another, because the false negatives are so high. False positives become more of a problem when it’s used for mass testing, I’d have thought.