advertisement


Coronavirus - the new strain III

Status
Not open for further replies.
Richard Nichola said:
If we're massively underestimating the number of people infected, because we aren't counting asymptomatic people doesn't that imply we're also underestimating R0 (how contagious it is)? This'll mean we need a higher %age with antibodies to achieve herd immunity.
Are symptomatic people (e.g. kids) less likely to pass the virus on, since it seems to be spread mainly by coughs?
Click to expand...

Report of 2/3rds of cases being infected by people whose own cases were undetected:
https://qz.com/1819484/covid-19-is-mostly-spread-by-undetected-people/

I read somewhere that asymptomatic people were 50% less likely to pass it on, but that it may still possible to spread by just breathing. No-one knows for sure.

My hunch is that it’s far more contagious (but therefore also less deadly) than most of us think due to the mild or asymptomatic cases. Many people become infected but not “ill”. My understanding is that this would reduce the ultimate height of the peak, but not flatten it...
 
Seanm said:
It will be tough to run economies on austerity lines in a post-virus world: would probably need fascism. Not impossible I suppose.

Interesting thread here on the limits of the Imperial paper and why the choices now are basically paying workers to ride out the crisis or brutal martial law: you can't expect people to co-operate voluntarily when you're asking one section of society (young, poor, workers) to make massive sacrifices for another (older, which tends to mean wealthier). Struggling to see why this would be much different on the other side of the crisis. I would also expect the power of the media - which is basically what allowed the Tories to manage milder versions of this problem (austerity 1, Brexit) - to be much diminished once it becomes clear how many people they've helped kill.
https://twitter.com/causalinf/status/1240460151519424512?s=21
Click to expand...

You make some good points. I have thought for quite a while that world population growth together with global capitalism was unsustainable which would lead to an inevitable shift to leftist or environmental based political parties taking power but I couldn't quite see what would cause it. Maybe CV19 and its aftermath is it and the time.
 
Bob McC said:
What a mealy mouthed piece of nonsense about pay!
So you are saying that the statutory right to 28 days paid leave that those hours confer under employment law don’t apply to teachers?
if your wife gets directives how come you were so uninformed yesterday, claiming the closure weren’t compulsory?
Did she know what was becoming before the announcement? I bet not.
Click to expand...
Why are you so aggressive? Can we have some civility. The actual wording received is actually not clear, that is why schools have been asking for more information this morning. The instructions issued to Schools will be more detailed than that offered by a press release. It is reported in the news today about schools staying open over the Easter holidays.
 
Colin Barron said:
Any basis for this upbeat prediction? History which is an exact science, would appear to suggest that the 20% working for the state, unionised labour and banks, who can hold the country to ransom will do ok with business as usual, but for the rest it will be gruel for several years.
Click to expand...
Nope, just trying to be positive. Any change in policy will be watered down over time though.
 
Heckyman said:
Report of 2/3rds of cases being infected by people whose own cases were undetected:
https://qz.com/1819484/covid-19-is-mostly-spread-by-undetected-people/

I read somewhere that asymptomatic people were 50% less likely to pass it on, but that it may still possible to spread by just breathing. No-one knows for sure.

My hunch is that it’s far more contagious (but therefore also less deadly) than most of us think due to the mild or asymptomatic cases. Many people become infected but not “ill”. My understanding is that this would reduce the ultimate height of the peak, but not flatten it...
Click to expand...

The model would still have to fit the observed mortality rate though. I would guess this would place constraints on some of the assumptions, but with so many variables one most likely is offset by another...
 
Seanm said:
It will be tough to run economies on austerity lines in a post-virus world: would probably need fascism. Not impossible I suppose.
Click to expand...

Indeed, contemplating the economic impact is scarier than the virus itself! Perhaps the Government was not that far off with the original strategy, as shocking as it seemed at the time.

Let's say the virus rampages through the population despite our best attempts at social distancing etc. The majority of economically active individuals will rapidly experience a mild respiratory infection and that will be that. You can't expect them to continue to stay at home for months on end when they are not at risk themselves, but how else could suppression be achieved? There is no test for antibodies to prove someone is non-infectious, and even then there is the possibility of infection with multiple strains of the virus (like influenza).
 
Heckyman said:
Indeed, contemplating the economic impact is scarier than the virus itself! Perhaps the Government was not that far off with the original strategy, as shocking as it seemed at the time.

Let's say the virus rampages through the population despite our best attempts at social distancing etc. The majority of economically active individuals will rapidly experience a mild respiratory infection and that will be that. You can't expect them to continue to stay at home for months on end when they are not at risk themselves, but how else could suppression be achieved? There is no test for antibodies to prove someone is non-infectious, and even then there is the possibility of infection with multiple strains of the virus (like influenza).
Click to expand...

An antibodies test is on the way. Once that is available things will start to become a whole lot easier as those with no chance of infection or transmission of infection can get back out into the workplace etc. Yes I know it's not cut and dried, but give the scientists time and it will be.
 
This video is really worth your time. It's by the author of Dealiest Enemy Michael Osterholm, an authority on infectious disease:

 
Heckyman said:
Indeed, contemplating the economic impact is scarier than the virus itself! Perhaps the Government was not that far off with the original strategy, as shocking as it seemed at the time.

Let's say the virus rampages through the population despite our best attempts at social distancing etc. The majority of economically active individuals will rapidly experience a mild respiratory infection and that will be that. You can't expect them to continue to stay at home for months on end when they are not at risk themselves, but how else could suppression be achieved? There is no test for antibodies to prove someone is non-infectious, and even then there is the possibility of infection with multiple strains of the virus (like influenza).
Click to expand...
I missed it yesterday but apparently tests for antibodies are just around the corner. One justification for the scaling back of testing I suppose.
 
Well, this article multiplied my levels of anxiety by about a hundred, so mixed feelings about sharing, but parents of young children should be aware that it can get serious:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-childen.html

This is not exactly reassuring either, but again, the more widely known it is the fewer people we're going to see acting as if it were business as usual: 40% of those hospitalised are between 25 and 54:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

Better prospects than older patients once they're hospitalised, but since we're about to run out of hospital capacity that's little comfort.
 
Seanm said:
Well, this article multiplied my levels of anxiety by about a hundred, so mixed feelings about sharing, but parents of young children should be aware that it can get serious:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-childen.html

This is not exactly reassuring either, but again, the more widely known it is the fewer people we're going to see acting as if it were business as usual: 40% of those hospitalised are between 25 and 54:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

Better prospects than older patients once they're hospitalised, but since we're about to run out of hospital capacity that's little comfort.
Click to expand...

That's what a lot of people haven't grasped yet - and why I was so furious about the schools.
 
Colin Barron said:
Any basis for this upbeat prediction? History which is an exact science, would appear to suggest that the 20% working for the state, unionised labour and banks, who can hold the country to ransom will do ok with business as usual, but for the rest it will be gruel for several years.
Click to expand...
History is an exact science?????
 
Another casualty of the virus is my clean driving licence. Normally leaving the motorway and joining the western bypass at Birtley Co Durham is a traffic jam, sadly last Saturday the road was clear. The letter explained that they had heard all excuses and gave a long list of creative examples.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top